I like Oil

Mulligan said:
Maybe in the long run that is correct. But all the people buying KMI in the 30's trusting him when said "the dividend is safe", all the way until the week before they whacked it probably are not feeling the love right now. The math was clearly saying one thing while he and the company was saying something else.


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True enough, but management frequently lies and math speaks the truth. Also the KMI price stress has to do with a dividend cut, not its conversion from MLP to C-corp, because this conversion did not and could not take place. Anyway, a fall from 30 to today's 18 or so does not seem too bad, considering the fall in oil itself.

I also think that a reasonable takeaway is "don't confuse speculating with investing". And if you are speculating, go after capital gain, not a dividend.

Ha
 
aja8888 said:
Sorry, meant KMP, not KMI.

Even if Iran can't actually produce 4 million BPD, they apparently are not willing to work with the Saudi's on limiting production. That's the message.

Here's another thing to consider: Once the advanced technology for horizontal well drilling and high pressure fraccing is spread far and wide (which it is not right now), you will see a whole lot more oil come from older fields that were vertically drilled decades ago. And most of those fields are in countries other than the U.S. This seems to be a topic no one is talking about.
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Thank you. these two things you mention are very important, I agree. And non-cooperation regarding a slowdown is important, at least short term.

Regarding fraccing all those old fields, it might take a brave company to invest what is would take in many of these countries. And in some of them, like Saudi Arabia, there is such excellent porosity that the reserves can be pretty well drained conventionally.

Anyway, these are certainly meaningful caveats.

Ha
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haha said:
True enough, but management frequently lies and math speaks the truth. Also the KMI price stress has to do with a dividend cut, not its conversion from MLP to C-corp, because this conversion did not and could not take place. Anyway, a fall from 30 to today's 18 or so does not seem too bad, considering the fall in oil itself.



I also think that a reasonable takeaway is "don't confuse speculating with investing". And if you are speculating, go after capital gain, not a dividend.



Ha
Click to expand...


Agreed, and I only watched from afar. The less knowledgable got creamed starting in the mid 40s less than a year ago. Much discussion of it in income forums people loading up at that price point and through the 40s and on down, citing "safety of the dividend".
They were going in for income not cap gains, and they were led like sheep to the slaughter, not understanding the financing mechanisms behind the company. A guess it is a fool and their money thing....But it will be my turn in the barrel sometime on a folly purchase I am sure to make.


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This is a very "outside the box" article on a huge dam in Iraq that is likely to collapse and take with it most of Iraq's oil (and kill millions of people).

The Mosul Dam - OPEC's Unavoidable Supply Cut | Seeking Alpha

"The Mosul Dam: The Mosul Dam is the largest dam in Iraq. It is located on the Tigris River in the western governance of Ninawa, upstream of the city of Mosul. Constructed in 1981, the dam has had a history of structural issues, requiring perpetual maintenance in order to maintain its integrity. Since 1984, this consisted of 300 man crews, working 24 hours a day across three shifts, filling holes in the bedrock through a process called grouting. For 30 years, this process worked, although it was always considered to be a ticking time bomb, dubbed "the most dangerous dam in the world" by the US Army Corps of Engineers.

In August 2014, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant took control of the dam, halting the maintenance process until it was retaken by Iraqi, Kurdish and US Forces two weeks later. Unfortunately, the damage was already done…"
 
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Why wouldn't raising cattle drive oil price higher?

Seems to be pretty energy-intensive.
 
I think this is a pretty good short video guessing what the markets will do this year. Some good stuff at the end on commodities.

 
Doha talks failed. I imagine oil stocks will be down 5% to 10% or so tomorrow. Saudi Arabia will be pleased with their war to destroy US shale industry.

Oil Plunges After Output Talks Fail Amid Saudi Demands Over Iran - Bloomberg

Saudi Arabia declares open war on shale

There's also talk that Saudi Arabia will dump almost $1 billion US dollars if congress releases the 28 pages from the 911 investigation which show that Saudi Arabia was involved in funding the terrorists.

Saudi Arabia threatens economic ‘turmoil’ over 9/11 bill | New York Post

Saudi Arabia funds and exports Islamic extremism: The truth behind the toxic U.S. relationship with the theocratic monarchy

With "friends" like this who needs enemies?
 
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It's not $1billion, it's $750 billions.


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ESRwannabe said:
There's also talk that Saudi Arabia will dump almost $1 billion US dollars if congress releases the 28 pages from the 911 investigation which show that Saudi Arabia was involved in funding the terrorists.
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A bit confused on that one. If the Saudis go on a disorderly fire sale of their assets, the only ones they'll hurt are themselves :confused:

Or am I too simplistic here.
 
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ESRwannabe said:
Doha talks failed. I imagine oil stocks will be down 5% to 10% or so tomorrow. Saudi Arabia will be pleased with their war to destroy US shale industry.

Oil Plunges After Output Talks Fail Amid Saudi Demands Over Iran - Bloomberg

Saudi Arabia declares open war on shale

There's also talk that Saudi Arabia will dump almost $1 billion US dollars if congress releases the 28 pages from the 911 investigation which show that Saudi Arabia was involved in funding the terrorists.

Saudi Arabia threatens economic ‘turmoil’ over 9/11 bill | New York Post

Saudi Arabia funds and exports Islamic extremism: The truth behind the toxic U.S. relationship with the theocratic monarchy

With "friends" like this who needs enemies?
Click to expand...



There must be different Saudi factions. Unless I am losing my mind, I know I heard on a news show (60 Minutes, I believe) about the releasing of those documents and reporter said the Saudi's had no problem with them being released.
 
Totoro said:
A bit confused on that one. If the Saudis go on a disorderly fire sale of their assets, the only ones they'll hurt are themselves :confused:

Or am I too simplistic here.
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They're talking tough and carrying a pop gun. The only reason the threat holds any sway at all is because policy makers believe they have a real weapon instead of a toy.
 
You're not the only one Mulligan. I find myself checking things more and more - and finding more and more often that my memory isn't as good as I thought. Soon I'll be checking my wife's name before I speak her name!
 
fosterscik said:
Soon I'll be checking my wife's name before I speak her name!
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Like this guy?

Two couples were enjoying friendly conversation when one of the men asked the other, "Fred, how was the memory clinic you went to last month?"

"Outstanding," Fred replied. "They taught us all the latest psychological techiniques-visulization, association-it made a huge difference for me."

"That's great! What was the name of the clinic?"

Fred went blank He thought and thought, but couldn't remember.

Then a smile broke across his face and he asked, "What do you call that flower with the long stem and thorns?"

"You mean a rose?"

"Yes, that's it!"

He turned to his wife. . ."Rose, what was the name of that memory clinic?"
Click to expand...
 
Weird, AMLP is actually up 1%. I just looked at XOM and it is slightly up.

I read somewhere that workers in Kuwait were striking because they didn't want a pay cut. Maybe that is what's happening.

Oh well, I'm not going to try and understand it. I have just been trying to ignore the oil market and stick to my plan.

Plan is to continue buying AMLP until I can no longer reduce my avg cost per share, which is $13.80 right now. Still at 20,030 shares. There is a dividend in a month or two which I will most likely reinvest.
 
Wow... AMLP is up another 4.12% today. Price is now $11.87. My avg cost per share is $13.80. Maybe I will get to invest in something else for a change. Its been pretty boring putting it all in AMLP the last year and a half.

SDLP is up 17.44% today... price is now $4.78. Still has a div yield of 20.92%...
 
ESRwannabe said:
SDLP is up 17.44% today... price is now $4.78. Still has a div yield of 20.92%...
Click to expand...

I sold almost all of mine at $3.60 only about a week ago. It literally hurts my head to think about how much more money I could've had if I held it one more week. I still made money as I bought multiple times between 2.25-3.50. I didn't want to be a "hog" and get slaughtered so I sold early. Oh well. I kept 1000 shares so that's worth something at least.
 
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