meierlde
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
This document covers world stock and bond returns in the period of 1900 to 2008. It also breaks out 17 countries.
https://emagazine.credit-suisse.com.../_shop/254094/research_institute_yearbook.pdf
Summary for the world as a whole over that period real return with re-invested dividends was 5.2% for stocks, 1.8% for bonds and 1.0% for bills.
The figures for the US are 6.0% 2.1% and 1.0%
The world ex-us was 4.8% 1.2% and 1.0%
For Europe the returns were 4.5% .9% and 1.0%
This is another example of the advantage of stocks over the long term and shows that even Europe with 2 periods of self destruction (WWI and WWII) did not do to badly over the 20th century. Noting the real returns cited over this period, it looks like a 4% swr is not to bad based on history. Of course history is not necessarily a prediction of the future, but reversion to mean is not a bad way to look at things, given that a lot of other predictions are not much better than reading tea leaves or Harspex (consulting entrials of a chicken ala the Romans).
https://emagazine.credit-suisse.com.../_shop/254094/research_institute_yearbook.pdf
Summary for the world as a whole over that period real return with re-invested dividends was 5.2% for stocks, 1.8% for bonds and 1.0% for bills.
The figures for the US are 6.0% 2.1% and 1.0%
The world ex-us was 4.8% 1.2% and 1.0%
For Europe the returns were 4.5% .9% and 1.0%
This is another example of the advantage of stocks over the long term and shows that even Europe with 2 periods of self destruction (WWI and WWII) did not do to badly over the 20th century. Noting the real returns cited over this period, it looks like a 4% swr is not to bad based on history. Of course history is not necessarily a prediction of the future, but reversion to mean is not a bad way to look at things, given that a lot of other predictions are not much better than reading tea leaves or Harspex (consulting entrials of a chicken ala the Romans).