Is it a sell in May and go away year?

[audreyh1]

I no longer try to make prophecies about the market, or if I do, I don't let my financial situation in retirement depend upon them.

I have a conservative AA, mostly consisting of broad index mutual funds in Boglehead-ish style (plus 30% Wellesley because I just have always loved Wellesley). I don't buy or sell during the year. During the first week in January, I rebalance. It's not the first week in January, last I checked.

We all know that the market goes up and down always, like a roller coaster. Trying to predict these short term movements is not profitable for small investors AFAIK. But profiting overall from investing over decades seems to be much easier to do.

Today my combined investments and bank accounts total the highest they have ever been in my entire life. The total keeps going up and up and up and up. So, I am pretty happy about that. I know that what goes up must come down at some point but I will be fine.

OMG!

 

[aja8888]

Today my combined investments and bank accounts total the highest they have ever been in my entire life. The total keeps going up and up and up and up. So, I am pretty happy about that. I know that what goes up must come down at some point but I will be fine.

Is this new high because you are spending less than taking in (income through SS, pensions, etc), or is it because your portfolio has the magic sauce? Or is it a combination of both?

 

[HI Bill]

Today my combined investments and bank accounts total the highest they have ever been in my entire life.

That was true for me yesterday, also!

 

[aja8888]

That was true for me yesterday, also!

Not me, I paid for a wedding last year.

 

[kgtest]

That was true for me yesterday, also!

True here as well. Flying high on tech!

 

[kgtest]

Aaargh! Now I have to sell everything!

OP:

The Patriots won the Super Bowl this year, and they're in the AFC. Hemlines are going up. Butter production in Bangladesh is down. So the answer to your question is definitely maybe.

LOL! With ultimate doubtable uncertainty?

 

[braumeister]

Maybe this will help.

 

[audreyh1]

Is this new high because you are spending less than taking in (income through SS, pensions, etc), or is it because your portfolio has the magic sauce? Or is it a combination of both?

I suspect she's talking about her portfolio being at new highs.

 

[W2R]

Is this new high because you are spending less than taking in (income through SS, pensions, etc), or is it because your portfolio has the magic sauce? Or is it a combination of both?

Perhaps the former. I am used to spending a certain amount, and my recently increased SS (plus my mini-pension) very nearly covers it all. Last year I only spent 0.6% of my portfolio, not due to virtue but due to lack of imagination about what to spend it on.

Also, I think I heard that the Dow is at a record high level lately....

I suspect she's talking about her portfolio being at new highs.

Yes, exactly. With the market surging upwards, and my spending not keeping pace, my total (portfolio+bank accounts) is the highest ever. It's not due to any great investing acumen since I invest fairly conventionally, in broad index funds plus Wellesley.

That was true for me yesterday, also!

Congratulations!

 

[GrayHare]

Maybe this May it's "sell during first three days". Premarkets currently down about 2%.

 

[Bigdawg]

Maybe this May it's "sell during first three days". Premarkets currently down about 2%.

Nice. A buy opportunity.

 

[joeea]

Maybe this May it's "sell during first three days". Premarkets currently down about 2%.

Trade Wars redux. Get ready for a bumpy ride.

 

[scaubie]

With the recent market historic highs, I considered reducing my equity position but I did not. The market just finished a rough eeek and down a bit with the uncertainty with China situation but most indicators point to a strong economy.

 

[Oz investor]

one might reflect on the style of market participant , who would have initially offered the ' sell in May ' concept

one might suspect a TAX-paying investor ( probably a professional investor and/or trader )

i have seen some data suggesting the market doesn't automatically decline post May , but any movements in the period are not worth the risk/effort/costs

so a taking of existing profits to pay tax obligations and have some cash to fund a reasonable lifestyle until mid September ( and the brain a rest ) might be long term efficient .

now investors playing a long-term accumulative style MIGHT find tax-selling a potential opportunity ( so the mantra still has some importance just a different action )

my hoped for sales planned in this period are more a reflection of my disappointment in the director's choices in business operation ( and not because of one-off choices )

i am not as optimist as Buffet on his theory that a great business can withstand the effect of ' idiot management ' ( ESPECIALLY when the poor management teams aren't replaced quickly ).

 

[COcheesehead]

Buy back in October and hope you’re sober?
Investing rhymes don’t always work.

 

[Oz investor]

China HAS TO slow down ( but actually contracting is only an option )

China cannot persist in growing more than 6% over a prolonged period ( they have grown so strongly in the past decades ) and not have major internal problems .

now much of the world will have problems because they have relied so heavily on the past Chinese growth , without planning an adequate alternate strategy .

i have tried to look for suitable investment opportunities in India , but IT IS SO HARD ( maybe that will change later ) Africa is almost automatically off my list too much geo-political risk for me , and South America is pretty tumultuous as well .

 

[Oz investor]

sadly my drinking days ( seem to be ) over ,

and sadly alcohol abuse never seemed to make the j*b look any better

when does a rhyme become a truism

when it works for you , perhaps

i prefer to think on ideas before i act ( but sometimes that is not possible , nor instinctive )

 

[COcheesehead]

Buy back in December and hope your kids remember?

 

[Oz investor]

Buy back in December and hope your kids remember?

that would have worked this year ( on a wider scale )

but not for me this year

NORMALLY i would have picked up one or two illiquid small caps abandoned by the investor , perhaps to pay down Xmas budget blowouts .

( you can't win every year with the same strategy , it seems )

 

[NW-Bound]

Even while traveling, I heard and felt the powerful effect of the "Wh***" from across the ocean.

It sent the market reeling back 5%, and the end is not in sight.

 

[Bamaman]

World politics and China tariffs have made the last few days downers in the stock market. As of 9:20 a.m. today, 5/13/2019, the market's down 541 points.

I think May may be a hold'em month this year.

 

[Nick12]

If the market drops more, the ones on the sidelines with cash can swoop in and buy low and sell high.

 

[marko]

World politics and China tariffs have made the last few days downers in the stock market. As of 9:20 a.m. today, 5/13/2019, the market's down 541 points.

If the market drops more, the ones on the sidelines with cash can swoop in and buy low and sell high.

I've been buying the dips over the past several days...just moving about 1%. Had been eyeing a few things for a while and this lets me go back in time and get a bargain. Not looking for a bottom, just looking for a deal.

Hope I'm not wrong but I don't see the China thing as a long term issue.

 

[Oz investor]

i am hoping to buy low ( later on ) but stick to div. paying stocks ( and so hold them for a long time )

but needs to drop more than 25% to get me really interested