Is it too late to buy AAPL?

[audreyh1]

DH bought some AAPL for his SEP-IRA in the late 90s when Steve Jobs returned to Apple. He bought more in 2002-2004 when there was a slump. He bought more in 2008/2009. He bought more in 2013 when it was keelhauled.

He won't let go of any of it. We occasionally talk about an exit strategy. But I consider that his "play money" - he can hold it as long as he wants, really.

dvalley - take a look at what happened in late 2012 and in 2013. Would you have bought AAPL when it was almost cut in half? Will there be another such opportunity? Or will the next time be like other tech leaders such as INTC, MSFT, CSCO, HP who reached peaks and then never regained them more than a decade later? It's hard to know.

They do pay a pretty good dividend, and they've raised it the last couple of Aprils.

 

[jabbahop]

alas both my wife and I had long since sold our Apple employee purchase shares from the 80's and 90's (we both left in the mid 90's) before the run to the stars. Another example of my inability to pick stocks.


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[NW-Bound]

I own individual stocks, but never Apple. I do not follow it either, I guess because until recently when I was given a used iPhone by my kid, I never had a Apple product. Another reason was that I thought I already had too much tech stocks. So, I miss out. Apple can still go up from here, but the risk/reward may not be the same.

Just now look at AAPL, and see that its market cap is more than $700B. Will it get to be the world first trillion dollar company? It is interesting to see. I recall that in 2000, Cisco was worth $500B, and people were talking about it becoming the first trillion dollar company.

 

[utrecht]

I own individual stocks, but never Apple. I do not follow it either, I guess because until recently when I was given a used iPhone by my kid, I never had a Apple product. Another reason was that I thought I already had too much tech stocks. So, I miss out. Apple can still go up from here, but the risk/reward may not be the same.

Just now look at AAPL, and see that its market cap is more than $700B. Will it get to be the world first trillion dollar company? It is interesting to see. I recall that in 2000, Cisco was worth $500B, and people were talking about it becoming the first trillion dollar company.

Without looking it up, Id be willing to bet that Apple makes a heck of a lot more money than Cisco did in 2000. A huge portion of Apple stock price is cash on hand.

 

[NW-Bound]

I am sure that you are right. Cisco valuation was so frothy back then, along with the entire stock market.

About Apple's cash, they make money hand over fist with iThings. The thing to watch is to see what they are going to do with that cash. A few years back Microsoft, another company I never own, had a lot of cash that it found no good investment for. Investors demand dividend payout, so they did. That itself is not bad, just that the growth is not there anymore.

 

[fanmail]

I own some as it is the largest component of total stock market. I have bought individual shares before and made a profit, although miniscule in comparison to many others in here. I don't see any reason to own any extra in it at this time. Perhaps at a much lower price I would.

 

[Beldar]

Barrons speculated a few weeks ago that the Apple Watch may generate $23B in 2016 revenue. Thats incredible for a gadget.

I for one am really curious concerning what may happen with the iCar (Project Titan, or Apple car, or whatever they end up calling it). Apple is shovelling alot of the cash (and up to 1000 employees, if you believe the rumors) it has laying around to the research program for the car. Considering the connectivity expertise and experience they have it should be an interesting new-tech Model T (or Edsel).

_B

 

[aja8888]

Barrons speculated a few weeks ago that the Apple Watch may generate $23B in 2016 revenue. Thats incredible for a gadget.

I for one am really curious concerning what may happen with the iCar (Project Titan, or Apple car, or whatever they end up calling it). Apple is shovelling alot of the cash (and up to 1000 employees, if you believe the rumors) it has laying around to the research program for the car. Considering the connectivity expertise and experience they have it should be an interesting new-tech Model T (or Edsel).

_B

Long gone are the days of cars with a 12 volt battery, tube or transistor radio, vacuum wipers and other vacuum controls. Now we have an electronic device with several computers, control modules living on a CAN buss and a 300 watt, 12 speaker sound system that happens to have an internal combustion (or electric) engine and 8 speed transmission.

 

[nash031]

So going back to the question, those of you that missed out what are your thoughts? My gut feeling tells me AAPL still has plenty of life left in it, being probably one of the most cash-rich companies so I'll probably buy on the next dip below $119

I'm long AAPL. Still one of the best companies out there, but not really a "growth" stock any more, per se.

Tech sector trailing PE is ~18.2 and AAPL is up near 17. Back when I bought it was more like 17 vs. 11. I bought at 450 and 400 (pre-split), and felt pretty good about it as a value buy (no one else really liked AAPL then). I wouldn't feel as good about it now, and might wait until Apple Watch comes out. If sales are slow, the price should come back down some.

JMO. (AAPL is the only individual stock I own).

 

[aja8888]

A few posters here seem to basing Apple's near term performance on the new watch.

I believe the more important metric is the success of the 6 and 6+ phone sales and Macbook upgrade going forward. Plus, the timing of the 6 release comes when two year subscription renewals are due after the 5's release. So, hopefully, a lot of people are upgrading. In my small world, I have seen a lot of 6 and 6+ phones that friends and family are carrying around these days.

The watch may be a flash in the pan, so to say, and may have initially high sales as a curiosity or fashion statement for the tech generation. I believe Apple's long term success may be on the quality of the brand and not just one item in their "eco system".

 

[explanade]

Yeah iPhone sales are what drives the business. When they release new iPhones later this year, can they eclipse the 75 million that they sold last quarter? That's what will drive the stock price, not some unproven watch.

Some say there was some pent-up demand for large phones, as well as some people who have been Android users switching to iPhone because of the bigger screens, so that sales performance may not be repeatable.

iPhone 5 users on 2-year contracts were up last September. So this September would be 5s users.

Typically they change the form factor every other year, so this year's iPhone would have the same external design, if you go by history.

But while I like the iPhone 6 Plus that I got a couple of months ago, there is room for improvement, like getting rid of the camera bump and reducing the bezels to give it a smaller footprint.

 

[nash031]

Long term, the iPhone is what drives them, I agree. In the near term, you can avoid paying a premium for the stock if you believe (as I do) that the watch will come out with a fizzle. No guarantees, of course...

But if you're going to hold it for 20 years, paying $100 vs. $119 probably doesn't matter as much, particularly if you think it might bump up to $130 or more when the watch hits.

Good op-ed in the WSJ this weekend about why Apple watch exists... specifically to protect the iPhone.

Holman Jenkins Jr.: Why the Apple Watch Exists - WSJ

If Apple were to build a car, it would be to protect the iPhone business. If Apple builds a watch, it’s to protect the iPhone business.

For all the company’s effort to divert attention to the design statement the new Apple Watch supposedly represents, for all the trotting out of design chief Jony Ive, one utterance puts the watch in proper context. It comes from the company’s own testers who claimed, after using the watch for a few weeks, they were fishing their iPhones out of pockets and backpacks many fewer times a day.

The iPhone has a weakness! What started as an incredible convenience has become a pain in the butt, an annoying friction in our consumption of digital services.

 

[audreyh1]

Yes, I think they have a strong broad offering of products. The new retina MacBook is just incredible, and I can't wait to see the larger MacBook pros gain that new sleek form factor. I expect their new IMac is selling like crazy too.

It's definitely not just about the iWatch. But I think Apple is onto something there. A lot of people are interested in tracking their biometric data, and the iWatch taps into that. Also the simple function of an iPhone "companion" that means you don't need to pull out your iPhone to check things or use Apple Pay. That may seem silly, but I think it's a major deal.

We're holding our shares and enjoying the dividend. I don't think we'd buy more unless it suffered a 2013 repeat. Will they still be around in 20 years? That would be nice. Seems like a long time! Hard to imagine.

 

[LifeIs]

I didn't see much feedback

Like many said most mutual funds have apple in it....I don't think it would be a bad investment but wouldn't expect too much from it...mostly cult following. of interest will be this watch they are coming out. good luck in your decision I have thought about throwing in a few bucks as well. We have been focused on Disney for the past few years, loving the returns and I can't get away from DIS very much. Again google is awesome and they have windfarms...I know apple has solar. We have a windturbine which was my first post as we were flooded with people wanting to cash us out. Don't get the most money but a nice 35k check is always welcome. Which I will be happy when we are finished with bills and can start investing more.


Good Luck with he apple

 

[kgtest]

I am selling my AAPL this week sometime. Along with my other individual UNP stock. I am slowly exiting out of the individual stock picking game. I feel the whole market is going to be slow-churning for a while, of course this is based on the history of it being slow turning the past couple of quarters.

I do feel we have 2-3 slow-churning to no-churning quarters ahead of us. I might buy if it EVER get's below $100 again. I bet it will.

 

[explanade]

They're expected to increase the dividend some time this month.

 

[kgtest]

Thanks for the heads up. I don't own enough to really make the DIV worth holding onto for the short term. Kind of put ourselves in a bind being out of employment for 4months. Unfortunately now I need to dip into the taxable account to right our ship here momentarily.

 

[ExFlyBoy5]

I do hold *some* AAPL, but I have unloaded quite a bit in recent months as well. I would like to see them introduce something that is THE next best things, but I don't see this on the horizon. They are making $ with the iPhone and the market share (world wide) that they have is not great (in my opinion). I don't see that they are going to very well on the iWatch, but who knows. The sheeple out there sure like their Apple products so they will sell a bunch.


Nonetheless, I personally wouldn't get in right now. Of course, all the "experts" are saying, "BUY! BUY! BUY!", so what do I know.

 

[rayinpenn]

Apple has done a remarkable job at introducing innovative products. What is worth considering:
The watch is a dud. There is ever increasing competition on the phones...although they do enjoy new markets..China big time.

I'd rather not pretend I can predict technology ...just too fickle and rich for my blood.



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[kcowan]

Apple never goes for market share. As long as they get the profitable slice of China, things will go well.

 

[dallas27]

The watch doesnt impress me, apple payments does. Buying into the payment chip maker seems a smart play to me. That will succeed in phones even if watch fails.


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[Djtjak]

The only individual stock I own is Apple, (about 8.5% of my portfolio, I know .......it's too much) the remainder of my investments are Index ETFs. According to Morningstar Apple trades at 12.9 times forward earnings, while the total market ( Vanguard VTI etf) trades at 18.8 times. Based on this and a dividend of about 1.5%, I feel that Apple still a reasonably priced stock with future growth opportunities

 

[mpeirce]

The only individual stock I own is Apple, (about 8.5% of my portfolio, I know .......it's too much)...

Me too. Every year I have a goal of bringing down my exposure to AAPL. I sell some - not too much because of the huge gains built into my shares - but at the end of the year it's usually an even larger percentage of my assets. I know, a terrible problem to have.

I'll keep chipping away at it...

 

[kcowan]

When it hit a presplit $75, we sold it all and then repurchased half at $52. We took the gains hit (ACB=$8) and decided to let the rest ride. 2100 shares

 

[braumeister]

Most definitely not too late to buy it. Their future still looks bright to me.