Is the Bull Market really 5 Years Old?

[Fermion]

That's the fundamental problem...we won't know til after we've gotten there!

I would say we are at 16 or 17 on that chart. +/- 10

 

[NW-Bound]

This bull market could run quite a bit more if we hit those numbers reached in 2000. DOW 30,000 anyone?

Weren't we there already?

First, we hit 30,000 in 2008.

Then, 36,000.

And also, 40,000.

Look at all those milestones falling by the wayside. Next stop: 100,000.

I will see $10,xxx,xxx on my Quicken screen before I die. Now, that's the bucket list item.

Here we go!!!

Doesn't that bring tears to your eyes?

 

[Midpack]

Besides the fact that the stock market is at all time highs, what is causing you (those who commented above) to think that a crash or correction is likely? Or is that the main reason?

Because a correction is always likely? It'll happen, just a matter of when.

True.

But the fact that market indexes hit all time highs alone are NOT a basis to predict a correction. I see folks post that as a reason here often enough, and it's nonsense.

Markets have hit new highs for as long as there have been market indexes, none of us would invest otherwise...

Although U.S. equity markets (represented by the Russell 1000® Index) are at or near all-time highs, that doesn’t necessarily indicate they’ve peaked. Since January 1995, the U.S. equity market has seen 432 new daily highs and has eventually moved higher after each one.

How many bear markets have their been since 1995? At most 5? In which case a new high alone was a predictor 5 of 432 times...IOW uncorrelated.

 

[Andre1969]

I would say we are at 16 or 17 on that chart. +/- 10

Yeah, that's about how I feel. While I still have my 401k contributions on auto pilot, and continue to reinvest dividends from my Scottrade account, I'm starting to wonder if it's time to take a little profit out and buy on the next dip.

Of course, who knows when that next dip will be? I'm pretty good at predicting them. About half the time.

 

[UnrealizedPotential]

That's the fundamental problem...we won't know til after we've gotten there!

This is why I like listening to Jeremy Siegel.He is always so positive.A Permabull if I ever saw one.Like everyone else though ,he's wrong sometimes.

 

[eta2020]

Yeah, that's about how I feel. While I still have my 401k contributions on auto pilot, and continue to reinvest dividends from my Scottrade account, I'm starting to wonder if it's time to take a little profit out and buy on the next dip.

Of course, who knows when that next dip will be? I'm pretty good at predicting them. About half the time.

That is kinda market timing which usually does not work. It is another thing you need to rebalance your AA and July 1st is your scheduled time to do that.

 

[NW-Bound]

Well, the market does not really make a new high if we account for inflation.

From Jan 2000 till May 2014, the market has to advance 1.41X to match inflation. Yes, there's a bitty dividend that helps, but it is not enough. The S&P reached 1,500 in March 2000. That's equivalent to 2,100 now, but the S&P is only at 1,972 at this posting.

There's really not much to get excited about.

And while I post this, my Quicken screen is counting the money in the other window of this laptop. I will take what the market gives me, with the understanding that tomorrow it may be all taken back, and some.

 

[eta2020]

Well, the market does not really make a new high if we account for inflation.

From Jan 2000 till May 2014, the market has to advance 1.41X to match inflation. Yes, there's a bitty dividend that helps, but it is not enough. The S&P reached 1,500 in March 2000. That's equivalent to 2,100 now, but the S&P is only at 1,972 at this posting.

There's really not much to get excited about.

And while I post this, my Quicken screen is counting the money in the other window of this laptop. I will take what the market gives me, with the understanding that tomorrow it may be all taken back, and some.

S&P 500 Return Calculator - Don't Quit Your Day Job...

I think we are looking at 23.117 after inflation return from June 2010 till June 2014. Or real annual return of 1.497% after inflation with dividends reinvested.

This is not great but inflation did not eat up your money. In fact you made a bit of money.

If you started in June 1983 - June 2014 you would look at 7.772% real return. That is pretty good return IMO

If you invested also into mid caps and small caps and international indexes you would be looking at better returns in both time periods.

 

[easysurfer]

This bull market could run quite a bit more if we hit those numbers reached in 2000. DOW 30,000 anyone?

That's the big question. Even though the Dow is at or near records, no one really knows is that the peak or just a mid range for a continued bull market.

For me, I prefer to just stick to my allocations.

 

[NW-Bound]

I think we are looking at 23.117 after inflation return from June 2010 till June 2014. Or real annual return of 1.497% after inflation with dividends reinvested.

This is not great but inflation did not eat up your money. In fact you made a bit of money.

The index was pushed out of the red with the recent surge. Still, that return does not support the WR that most retirees count on. And they have to suffer through two scary roller coasters in those 14 years.

Hey, I am doing quite well through that terrible period of 14 years, thank you, but it's by [-]buy low, sell high[/-] rebalancing. Many youngsters here did even better as courageous accumulators. My point is that it is not all that easy, so I quite sympathize with people who shun the market and rather eat less than watch their stash shrink. Some people are not cut out for this, and the fact is that nobody can give them any guarantee.

If you started in June 1983 - June 2014 you would look at 7.772% real return. That is pretty good return IMO

If you invested also into mid caps and small caps and international indexes you would be looking at better returns in both time periods.

Sure, that's how many of us could retire early. I hope that the period of prosperity due to post Cold War and the advent of the computer will repeat in some form. I would like to die rich!

Well, I have to log off to prepare for the drive up to my "mountain retreat". See y'all later.

 

[Lsbcal]

My theory, we investors are suffering from PTDD -- Post Traumatic Decade Disorder. This stems from the 1st decade of this century which was marked by 2 nasty equity bear markets.

We will see a month marked by a -5% to -15% decline before this bull market is over. Along the way there will probably be good months too. Nobody knows how they will combine to form a wiggly composite chart. Hopefully that chart will continue up and to the right. So I try to relax and enjoy the ride, but relaxing is not easy when you have PTDD.

BTW, I posted a chart a while back showing the various decades overlaid for comparison. If someone wants it, I'll post it here. I keep coming back to these broad charts to remind me of all those weird historical wiggles.

 

[audreyh1]

Help, I'm lost. Where are we?

Clearly, we are at 17! LOL!

Been hearing that phrase for a while now. Maybe for years.

 

[Fermion]

After seeing GoPro go to near $50 today I would like to revise my estimate. I think on the chart we are at 19.5.

 

[Amethyst]

I am not W2R. However...

WHEEEE!!!!

 

[Lsbcal]

I am not W2R. However...

WHEEEE!!!!

Now you've done it.

 

[NW-Bound]

Settling down at my cool place in the high country, checking up on my portfolio.,

My stock portions closed up 0.76%, matching the Dow. Still waiting for MF.

Will see tomorrow what effect the Oracle of DC's "Wheee" will have.

 

[audreyh1]

Now you've done it.

+10!

(but you forgot the dancing icons)

 

[Lsbcal]

+10!

(but you forgot the dancing icons)

I don't want to jinx this market:

 

[Midpack]

I am not W2R. However...

WHEEEE!!!!

Yeah, I did our quarterly review and our net worth has also set another record high, even though I retired 3 years ago. Life is good, and it still will be whenever the inevitable correction comes, hopefully it won't be too severe.

 

[audreyh1]

I pose this question because in October of 2011 the S and P 500 hit what was technically a sum total 20% intraday downturn from the previous high ,labeling it a bear market.The Dow and Nasdaq in 2011 fared better,but after the 2008-2009 bear market it seemed overkill to have another sharp drop so soon in time.So if the Bull market didn't really start until after October of 2011 this makes it only roughly 2.75 years old and not 5 years into the Bull market.If this is true,and I am only supposing ,then maybe this helps to explain the lack of a 10% correction.We had a nice 6% correction in the SP500 some months ago and nice correction in biotechs in the Nasdaq earlier this year. If my theory is correct maybe,just maybe this Bull Market is not so long in the tooth as was thought.This doesn't mean we won't have a nice correction at some point soon,but I think we may be in better shape than was previously thought.What does everyone else think?

There must be a reason people don't count that intraday event. Was it a flash crash? Regardless, there is probably some criteria involving closing prices.

We've also gone quite a few years without a 10% correction - more like 5 or 6% here and there.

 

[UnrealizedPotential]

There must be a reason people don't count that intraday event. Was it a flash crash? Regardless, there is probably some criteria involving closing prices.

We've also gone quite a few years without a 10% correction - more like 5 or 6% here and there.

I am not sure but I think it's because at the time the Dow and Nasdaq were not officially in Bear market territory,only the SP500.Whether this Bull market started in 2009 or 2011, we have had a great run!

 

[W2R]

I am not W2R. However...

WHEEEE!!!!

I know!!!

Today was yet ANOTHER all time high in net worth, for me. It seems like I have been reaching a new all time high net worth about once a week all year. I could get used to this!

 

[audreyh1]

I know!!!

Today was yet ANOTHER all time high in net worth, for me. It seems like I have been reaching a new all time high net worth about once a week all year. I could get used to this!

That's it! Game over!

 

[Andre1969]

There must be a reason people don't count that intraday event. Was it a flash crash? Regardless, there is probably some criteria involving closing prices.

We've also gone quite a few years without a 10% correction - more like 5 or 6% here and there.

I just pulled up my spreadsheet, and it doesn't show anything major happening around the October 2011 timeframe. Now, I only have month-end data, so if something major did happen earlier in the month, my records aren't going to show it. But if anything happened, I bounced back from it pretty quick.

FWIW, my investible assets around that timeframe were...
09/30/11: $585K
10/31/11: $642K (so apparently something good happened that month!)
11/30/11: $642K.

As for "flash crash", I googled it, and that event was on May 6, 2010. I had totally forgotten about it. But, that era was my last experience with three down months in a row. They went as follows...

4/23/10: $573K (my peak for the month, and a new high)
5/20/10: $503K (in those days, I'd only keep track of the month's high if it was a record, or the low if it was severe enough)
6/30/10: $496K (that month's low)
7/02/10: $492K (that month's low)
8/9/10: $507K (that month's high).

Now, if I was recording last day of the month back then, who knows...the results might not have looked that bad. Considering July bottomed out on the second day, there's a good chance I may have been above $496k later in the month. But, for whatever reason, I obsessed with those peaks and valleys more, and didn't change to last day of the month until 9/30/11.

 

[UnrealizedPotential]

I just pulled up my spreadsheet, and it doesn't show anything major happening around the October 2011 timeframe. Now, I only have month-end data, so if something major did happen earlier in the month, my records aren't going to show it. But if anything happened, I bounced back from it pretty quick.

FWIW, my investible assets around that timeframe were...
09/30/11: $585K
10/31/11: $642K (so apparently something good happened that month!)
11/30/11: $642K.

As for "flash crash", I googled it, and that event was on May 6, 2010. I had totally forgotten about it. But, that era was my last experience with three down months in a row. They went as follows...

4/23/10: $573K (my peak for the month, and a new high)
5/20/10: $503K (in those days, I'd only keep track of the month's high if it was a record, or the low if it was severe enough)
6/30/10: $496K (that month's low)
7/02/10: $492K (that month's low)
8/9/10: $507K (that month's high).

Now, if I was recording last day of the month back then, who knows...the results might not have looked that bad. Considering July bottomed out on the second day, there's a good chance I may have been above $496k later in the month. But, for whatever reason, I obsessed with those peaks and valleys more, and didn't change to last day of the month until 9/30/11.

My memory is kind of fuzzy about 2011 but I believe the market had been going down quite a bit in 2 or 3 months time up to and including October 2011.When I use the term intraday it means a point of reference during the trading day before closing.In other words,in October of 2011 during the trading day we were down at some point in the SP500 by a total 20% from the previous months high,but may have closed higher than that 20% before the trading day was done.We could have been down that day in October 2011 only half on one percent,but it equaled a total of 20% added over time.