Is the realestate bubble bursting?

[SJhawkins]

In burbs of Mpls starting to see some changes, more than one price adjustments on what I would call middle class homes.

Saw my first "open house" for an existing home in I don't know how long, the home has been on the market for a couple of weeks. The normal was list it in the AM and have 10 offers by dinner time

 

[2HOTinPHX]

I was in Phoenix earlier this year. I was surprised at the number of TV commercials from outfits and people who would quickly buy houses for cash. There were almost as many of them as there were tort lawyers looking for car accident victims. Has that changed? Just curious.

There was also some guy offering snake avoidance training for dog owners. His sign was right next to all the tort lawyers signs advertising to represent dog bite victims. Really.

Hmmm good question...yes there were tons of TV commercials offering to buy homes for cash. I think the commercials have slowed a bit but we still get the random text and email offer. Still tons of lawyers looking for car crash victims though...that will never stop as we have tons of bad drivers here.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

Arizona (Phoenix) recent market analysis, (also note discussion on "shadow inventory"):

I've been trying to watch a number of these kinds of videos - i.e. more detailed analysis of various markets.

 

[Another Reader]

I own rentals in the Phoenix area. The mailbox is still stuffed with cash offer solicitations. Still getting ten or more calls a day from overseas using spoofed numbers. However, the complicated schemes citing higher prices from six months ago are starting to show up in the mail.

Following the recent closed sales on Zillow and Realtor.com, it looks like sale prices are still high. However, active inventory is creeping up and price reductions are showing up. A few new listings in areas of high inventory are coming in at the bottom of the range. The shift is starting.

 

[retire202052]

Looks like the place to be is Texas:

https://www.opendoor.com/w/blog/opendoors-hottest-neighborhoods-midyear22

 

[VFK57]

RE is one of the best inflation protected assets. Yet when people are in a surviving mode (economy is sliding into recession or most likely is already there) most buyers would not be able to buy and prices will start to slide.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

I own rentals in the Phoenix area. The mailbox is still stuffed with cash offer solicitations. Still getting ten or more calls a day from overseas using spoofed numbers. However, the complicated schemes citing higher prices from six months ago are starting to show up in the mail.

Following the recent closed sales on Zillow and Realtor.com, it looks like sale prices are still high. However, active inventory is creeping up and price reductions are showing up. A few new listings in areas of high inventory are coming in at the bottom of the range. The shift is starting.

Thanks for your post. I would appreciate your thoughts about the video I linked to in the post prior to yours which covers the Phoenix market as of end of June.

 

[Another Reader]

Thanks for your post. I would appreciate your thoughts about the video I linked to in the post prior to yours which covers the Phoenix market as of end of June.

I'm hearing the same things from the experienced agents I know. It's fairly obvious. The only question is how much of a correction and whether the descent will be controlled or if we have another 2008-2012 collapse.

 

[Chuckanut]

Interesting video on Arizona housing.

The point about sellers sitting on their houses because they don't want to give up a 2 or 3% mortgage is a good one. I can see that happening.

 

[Out of Steam]

The 2 bedroom across the street is up for sale, I'll report how it goes.

Historically, two bedroom single family houses were hard to sell. I suppose there are enough single buyers now that that issue has lessened.

 

[Out of Steam]

Interesting video on Arizona housing.

The point about sellers sitting on their houses because they don't want to give up a 2 or 3% mortgage is a good one. I can see that happening.

We're not convinced our current neighborhood is the place for us long-term, but it's hard to give up an out-of-pocket housing cost of $1200 a month, half of it paid into principal.

 

[aja8888]

Historically, two bedroom single family houses were hard to sell. I suppose there are enough single buyers now that that issue has lessened.

As long as there are spots to park 6 or more cars, a two bedroom is no problem.

 

[travelover]

As long as there are spots to park 6 or more cars, a two bedroom is no problem.

My neighbors, too.

 

[Winemaker]

I own rentals in the Phoenix area. The mailbox is still stuffed with cash offer solicitations. Still getting ten or more calls a day from overseas using spoofed numbers. However, the complicated schemes citing higher prices from six months ago are starting to show up in the mail.

Following the recent closed sales on Zillow and Realtor.com, it looks like sale prices are still high. However, active inventory is creeping up and price reductions are showing up. A few new listings in areas of high inventory are coming in at the bottom of the range. The shift is starting.

DW and I own rentals south of Pittsburgh, we get at least 2 letters or phone calls from RE investors, wanting to buy our properties. Has been going on for well over a year. I even had a showing for one potential buyer, but afterward disappointed, I think he was looking for distressed or neglected buildings from motivated sellers who don't like the gig. I told him everything's for sale at the right price, but he was bottom fishing, not wanting to pay good money for great properties.

 

[NgineER]

DW and I own rentals south of Pittsburgh, we get at least 2 letters or phone calls from RE investors, wanting to buy our properties. Has been going on for well over a year. I even had a showing for one potential buyer, but afterward disappointed, I think he was looking for distressed or neglected buildings from motivated sellers who don't like the gig. I told him everything's for sale at the right price, but he was bottom fishing, not wanting to pay good money for great properties.

Same here - I get several mailers every week and text message fishing for property owners in distress. Be it financial, family emergency, bad investments, inherited property etc.

They are not interested in paying fair market value, but rather wanting to score a deal.

 

[rodi]

prices are/were outrageous here. A house similar to ours is pending at $1.8M.... *but* there was a local tv station interviewing the owner and his realtor (who also lives on our street) saying this may be the last of the multiple bid houses because of interest rates.

The above house just closed. At exactly asking price. It was listed for 10 days before going pending, so full ask (at an aggressive price, IMO) is pretty darn good.

 

[CaliKid]

We are seeing price reductions in Vegas that we haven't seen in years... but prices are still up 25% from a year ago and stuff is still going pending. Just not seeing multiple offers as much.

 

[Music Lover]

Historically, two bedroom single family houses were hard to sell. I suppose there are enough single buyers now that that issue has lessened.

Single buyers, couples with no kids, couples with kids that have moved out, etc.

I turned my 3 bedroom 1 bath into a 2 bedroom 2.5 bath and have no regrets. We'd rather have an ensuite that we can use every day than an extra bedroom that might get used a few times a year.

 

[Out of Steam]

As long as there are spots to park 6 or more cars, a two bedroom is no problem.

We've got one of those families on my street, but I'm sure they've got at least 3 bedrooms.

It appears that, in 2022, not having an HOA means your neighborhood will have a high concentration of people who couldn't possibly live under an HOA. Probably another point in favor of my wife's edict that this will be our last 50 year old house.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

Given the number of vehicles and "things" I have, the perfect house is a two bedroom w/a six car garage.

On second thought, six car isn't enough. Make that a six car PLUS a pole barn.

 

[CaptTom]

It appears that, in 2022, not having an HOA means your neighborhood will have a high concentration of people who couldn't possibly live under an HOA.

Another reason I'll insist on no HOA. I've met the kind of people who like them and I wouldn't fit in.

 

[harllee]

I live in a 2 bedroom house. Plenty of room for DH and I. We have turned the 2nd bedroom into a study so we don't have a place for people to spend the night.

 

[mojavesue]

We lived in an HOA a few years ago on the NW side of Las Vegas. I actually liked it because it was 10 bucks a month and that was for maintenance of the grounds on a major road. And they also kept people from painting their house pink and letting their properties become eyesores. We currently have a home just to the north of Summerlin with no HOA and the neighborhood is actually very well taken care of. No eyesore properties. Lots of original owners. Very few rentals.

 

[Magus]

HOAs generally do more good than harm, which is why most neighborhoods built in the last 20 years have them. But there are some bad ones out there

 

[skyking1]

We'll be doing a basic HOA for our short plat/subdivision. Just enough to encourage being good neighbors.