BUM said:
I dunno. Was it T. Boone Pickins last week who said we'll never see $45/barrel again? Also said worldwide demand is 86 million bl/day and supply in 84 million with US/India/China increasing. Doesn't sound like a peak to me.BUM
I don't really understand this statement. Peak is a function of reserves and production rates. Nobody has said that demand is peaking. Though obviously price will have to do some real demand rationing if we are nearing peak. Not enough above ground storage to have a supply shortfall for long.
Peak oil presumes a finite resource. When half of it has been produced, we will be at peak. There are lots of ideas as to when that might occur, and what the total resource(and thus also half of the total resource) is. Even a few think oil and NG are being renewed from deep within the earth.
Boone has believed in peak oil for a long time, though he has only started talking about it lately. Way back in 1980 he carved Mesa Royalty out of Mesa Pete, because he felt that exploration in the areas that were open to non-state companies had become a loser's game.
Along with Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger, Boone is a man who I at least have never heard put forth an irrational or poorly thought out idea. Once he was trading cattle and there was a very bullish consensus in the market. Boone flew around Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, looking and doing a rough count of cattle on feed. He decided that there were more than the market was accounting for, went short and made a killing. None of this efficient market pablum.
If you want to be rich some day, buy oil sands.
Mikey