Not only do three of the four "failures" occur beyond 30 years, the one failure within thirty years (#4 above, ending in 2002), last 29 years! In truth, this data tends to encourage optimism, not concern, about the 4% withdrawal rate. Unless the retiree concerned retired at age 32, SS would be available as a backup in the above scenario.
Separately, Firecalc always seems to provide more favorable numbers than ********. Wanting to err on the side of caution, I tend to view the data as more reliable if it comes from the more pessimistic, rather than the more optimistic calculator.
The 1973 failure cycle also starts showing signs of stress so quickly, that I'd like to think most people would take precautions to keep it from failing. Because of inflation, and the turbulent economy, what started off as a 4% withdrawal rate in 1973 is suddenly 10.2% by 1979!
I used the figures of $40K per year, and $1M invested, to start off. By 1979, inflation has brought that $40K up to $73,051, while the $1M had been eroded to $713,921.
And, that's not just a one-year aberration. It goes to 11.2% for 1980, and 13.3% for 1982. By 1987, it's back down to 11.7%. By this time, the withdrawal amount is $108639, and the remaining balance is at $931,973. Almost back to $1M, but in much-less valuable 1987 dollars.
From there, the withdrawal rate goes up quickly. For 1994 it comes to 22.3%, and by the end of 2001 there's only ~$32K left. The 2002 withdrawal is ~$170K, so that puts an end to it really quickly.
If this had been me in the above scenario, I would hope I would have had the foresight to cut back on spending fairly early on, take a part time job, or both! Still, even in this scenario, when you consider the withdrawal rate went above 10% way back in 1979, yet it held on through the end of 2001, it looks to me like the 4% SWR still put up a valiant fight.
