Latest Inflation Numbers and Discussion

[Koolau]

I know. Life is not fair.


PS. In another thread we were talking about how eggs have gone from $1/dozen to $3/dozen and beyond. That's a huge percentage increase. Why has nobody proposed an investigation into this "gouging" practice?

Heh, heh, in Hawaii, I never got the dollar eggs! Maybe that's something to investigate. Weird, too, 'cause we have chickens running around everywhere. It's so bad gummint is actually "looking" at the problem. I'm thinking - why not send offenders out to look for eggs for the OCCC commissary? YMMV

 

[almost there]

If the same criteria used in the 70s /80s was still in place, it would be double or more. What they are claiming today. Everyone knows that right?

 

[Beachcomber]

Inflation is closer to 20 - 25%.

If gas only went up 8.6%, it would be under $3/gallon. Gas is up over 50%, airline tickets 33%, heating oil, automobiles, etc all up over 25 - 50%.

Don't give me that 8.6% crap.

 

[almost there]

Yep and here we are with the fed at a .75 % to 1% range. With whopping 1/2 point increase's in June & July. Total joke. Then the 1st sign of a recession and they will cut rates. You can almost see the future by their inability to act.

 

[Koolau]

Personal inflation rates are often significantly different than the official numbers. In my case, state inflation rates due to unique factors are much higher - In Hawaii, it is primarily due to dramatically higher shipping costs. YMMV

 

[USGrant1962]

Wait until the DEF shortage hits trucking in a month or two! Google "DEF shortage" for more supply chain disruption and cost increases.

There is a big stink about it going on between Union Pacific and Flying J (biggest truck fuel supplier) right now.

 

[Magus]

If the same criteria used in the 70s /80s was still in place, it would be double or more. What they are claiming today. Everyone knows that right?

Using criteria prior to 1983 would be 14-15% inflation rate roughly today. Some of the changes made sense but shelter costs certainly don’t. Either way, it’s important to try to look at an apples to apples comparison as much as possible

 

[Northforker]

That's scary. Thanks goodness, it's a hoax. More like $3/dozen eggs.

See Snopes: https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/usda-egg-prices-inflation/

I paid $1.99/dozen for eggs at Fred Myer in Fairbanks, AK today.

 

[JoeWras]

Wait until the DEF shortage hits trucking in a month or two! Google "DEF shortage" for more supply chain disruption and cost increases.

There is a big stink about it going on between Union Pacific and Flying J (biggest truck fuel supplier) right now.

Oh for peet's sake. When will this madness end?

Too bad we can't just boil down our urine to create refined DEF.

 

[almost there]

Oh for peet's sake. When will this madness end?

Too bad we can't just boil down our urine to create refined DEF.

Agree, we create our own problems........... Things are telegraphed in advance, and nothing gets done.

From a strictly chemical disposition DEF is a mixture of 67.5% deionized water and 32.5% urea. Urea is a compound in Nitrogen that turns to ammonia when heated and is used in a variety of industries. Urea is technically derived from a byproduct of urine but for mass production purposes it is synthetically made.

 

[Montecfo]

That is their argument. Was also the argument of Lehman brothers

Not sure Fed and Lehman are comparable.

Aggregate duration of Fed holdings is around 6 years. Not a crazy period to just let it run off.
Seems like this issue was anticipated. They probably teach it in Fed Ops 101 or maybe 102.

 

[Koolau]

Wait until the DEF shortage hits trucking in a month or two! Google "DEF shortage" for more supply chain disruption and cost increases.

There is a big stink about it going on between Union Pacific and Flying J (biggest truck fuel supplier) right now.

Sounds like a good time to invoke The Defense Production Act. Not being able to operate trucks is a near existential threat to the nation. YMMV

 

[almost there]

Sounds like a good time to invoke The Defense Production Act. Not being able to operate trucks is a near existential threat to the nation. YMMV

Do you honestly think they didn't see this coming? Like this is a big surprise?
The Gov. creates a DEF requirement in 2010, mandated by the EPA. Then just quits paying attention?

 

[Koolau]

Do you honestly think they didn't see this coming? Like this is a big surprise?
The Gov. creates a DEF requirement in 2010, mandated by the EPA. Then just quits paying attention?

I certainly have a lot of thoughts on the current fuel situation and any ancillary topics like DEF. I refrain from sharing them as they would be considered political. YMMV

 

[almost there]

Agree, no politics. You mentioned the "Defense Production Act." And it got me off track it seems.

 

[Koolau]

Agree, no politics. You mentioned the "Defense Production Act." And it got me off track it seems.

My bad!

 

[almost there]

My bad!

No, I have a tough time here. And several of my posts get removed.
As its no easy to talk about things like SS without talking about taxation.
Or this, a Gov. mandated product, but not talk about the Govt.
So, I just don't post much.

 

[Koolau]

No, I have a tough time here. And several of my posts get removed.
As its no easy to talk about things like SS without talking about taxation.
Or this, a Gov. mandated product, but not talk about the Govt.
So, I just don't post much.

Join the club on removals. Sometimes it's difficult to stay silent. I just keep reminding myself that there are folks with just as strong feelings that think differently than I do. It's part of the rich tapestry of thoughts and feelings here on the FIRE forum (always wanted to say "rich tapestry" - it sounds so "enlightened" doesn't it?)

 

[daylatedollarshort]

Using criteria prior to 1983 would be 14-15% inflation rate roughly today. Some of the changes made sense but shelter costs certainly don’t. Either way, it’s important to try to look at an apples to apples comparison as much as possible

Volker raised rates to 20% to finally end inflation. So what does that mean the Fed has to do to now to interest rates to really end inflation? We have negative real interest rates even using the modified CPI.

 

[Magus]

Volker raised rates to 20% to finally end inflation. So what does that mean the Fed has to do to now to interest rates to really end inflation? We have negative real interest rates even using the modified CPI.

I've been pondering this question quite a bit myself the last few weeks.

 

[JoeWras]

Fed just raised rate 0.75%

 

[daylatedollarshort]

I've been pondering this question quite a bit myself the last few weeks.

The big market activity lately has been because the WSJ published a report that the next Fed move will be .75% and not .50% and there are likely going to be more .75% future increases. We will find out later today.

ETA: Posted at the same time with JoeWras! My post was already out of date before I finished typing it.

 

[Koolau]

I've been pondering this question quite a bit myself the last few weeks.

Anyone remember mortgages from back then?

My boss came into the lab after completing his mortgage in the early '80s. He plopped down in my chair. He was ashen. "I don't know how I'm gonna pay this mortgage. The price of the house was okay, but my rate means I'll be paying 1/3 my salary in payments - for 30 years!" That's about the time DW and I sold our place (that had increased in value 4X in 10 years) and went back to renting the old Homestead where DW and I started married life - and where I rent right now when on the mainland.

 

[Magus]

Anyone remember mortgages from back then?

My boss came into the lab after completing his mortgage in the early '80s. He plopped down in my chair. He was ashen. "I don't know how I'm gonna pay this mortgage. The price of the house was okay, but my rate means I'll be paying 1/3 my salary in payments - for 30 years!" That's about the time DW and I sold our place (that had increased in value 4X in 10 years) and went back to renting the old Homestead where DW and I started married life - and where I rent right now when on the mainland.

He did well - housing kept going up from there

I always tell a lot of the younger folks looking to buy their first home while that's true in year 1, over the next 10 years, your income will likely go up by 50% or more if you get promoted while the mortgage payment will only go up 5-10% due to taxes, rent will have gone up 50% and you'll have tripled your money assuming 20% down, housing prices go up 3% a year and you pay down 10 years worth of principal. And in most cases, the mortgage is a lot less than the rent around here.

 

[Koolau]

Fed just raised rate 0.75%

Thanks, Joe. We've all been waiting.

So who won the office pool?