OK, I'm not the BLS. I'm an anecdote. Take that for what it is.
In my little world, I'm seeing a very clear trend of easing of the employment shortages.
This hit me like a ton of bricks last night when we were at our local NHL arena. Over the last month, we've seen services at the arena improve dramatically. More parking attendants, more ticket takers, and fully staffed concession stands. During the worst of the employment crisis last spring, 1/3 of the concession stands were closed. This was during NHL playoffs with record hungry crowds! There was no way management desired that. Would you give up easily selling $15 beers and $10 hot dogs? I didn't think so.
Before the game, our habit is to go to Chipotle and get a better quality meal for 1/4 the price. Chipotle has taken down their weekly interview posters. More importantly, they opened up a second counter for take out. It was running smoother than I've seen it move in ages. Fully staffed. No shortage signs either, which were chronic. (No peppers today, no soda, blah, blah.)
Finally, on my great day yesterday, it started with a fully staffed city pool. Full lifeguard stands. This makes for a great lap swim since they can open up all 20 lanes and not force us into 9 lanes with one guard. Ever split a lane with "Mark Spitz" next to you doing his 8' wingspan butterfly? Stinks. Last spring, they even closed the pool 3 days a week because there were no guards. We've seen fully staffed guard stands for 1 month now.
So the Fed is waiting for employment to ease. I'm seeing it in my world. I think we'll start seeing it in the numbers. Once the Fed sees the trend, I think they will slam the brakes on rate rises and maybe even roll back.