Lot's of folks will be retiring early..........

[Cut-Throat]

--- 3.3 Million White Collar Jobs are being exported in the next 12 years.

The numbers are startling: 3.3 million jobs in less than 15 years. That's the number of U.S. jobs expected to be lost overseas by 2015 according to a recent report by Forrester Research. But the sheer size of the exodus isn't what's worrying analysts the most — it's the type of jobs. Some critics are worried that this time it's the corporate main office is getting ready to shut down and head out of the country, packing up cubicles and all. As reported on NOW, a new wave of jobs are leaving U.S. shores: software development, customer service, accounting, back-office support, product development and other white collar endeavors.

In late 2002, computer giant Oracle announced that it would double its workforce in India. Texas Instruments already employs over 1,000 engineers at a Bangalore campus, and has made plans for a much bigger presence in the near future. In November of 2002, Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates announced that the company will be making investments of approximately $400 million in India.

And, It's not just technology jobs that have ended up in India. Charles Schwab recently moved part of its information technology division to a contractor in Bangalore, India. AOL already has a large presence in India. American Express and British Airways have ramped up their employment in the country during the past year as well.

FRONTLINE WORLD reported last year that over half of Fortune 500 companies have moved jobs offshore, including famous names from many fields: Oracle, Dell, HSBC, Delta Air Lines, Novartis, J.P. Morgan Chase, Hewlett-Packard, American Express, British Airways. More are expected to follow.

Management: Number of jobs moving overseas by 2015: 288,281

Business: Number of jobs moving overseas by 2015: 348,028

Computer: Number of jobs moving overseas by 2015: 472,632

Architecture: Number of jobs moving overseas by 2015: 184,347

Life sciences: Number of jobs moving overseas by 2015: 36,770

Legal: Number of jobs moving overseas by 2015: 76,642

Art, design: Number of jobs moving overseas by 2015: 29,564

Sales: Number of jobs moving overseas by 2015: 226,564

Office: Number of jobs moving overseas by 2015: 1,659,310

And where are those jobs going? Many are indeed going to India, as portrayed in NOW's story, but others are heading to China, Russia, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and the Czech Republic. In short, they are moving toward cheaper labor costs.

 

[Mr._johngalt]

Re: Lot's of folks will be retiring early.........

I understand the possible results of this, but I surely
support management efforts to find a place with low
costs, labor or whatever. Seems like good business
practice to me.

 

[Cut-Throat]

Re: Lot's of folks will be retiring early.........

Maybe it is good business practice, however if enough folks lose their jobs in this country, they won't have any money to purchase the goods and services of these companies.

This could lead to a severe depression, where the whole economy is derailed.

And like I said before, The masses will be listening when a politician steps up to remedy the problem. The masses will be screaming for government involvement.

You see what I'm saying?

 

[Mr._johngalt]

Re: Lot's of folks will be retiring early.........

I absolutely see what you are saying. I am only pointing
out the reality of how free enterprise works, i.e.
everyone tries to make the most profit. This involves getting the most when you sell and paying the least for what goes into your product. Labor is normally a big
part of goods and services, therefore it makes sense to
try to cut that cost. Of course our government will
try to placate what you call the "masses". That's what
governments do.

 

[JG]

Re: Lot's of folks will be retiring early.........

Check out the latest edition of CIO. The benefits of outsourcing IT isn't as great as expected due to management and middlemen costs. It's still significant but it will decrease as Indians and Chinese become consumers more and more.

http://www.cio.com/archive/090103/backlash.html

 

[sgeeeee]

Re: Lot's of folks will be retiring early.........

I understand the possible results of this, but I surely
support management efforts to find a place with low
costs, labor or whatever.  Seems like good business
practice to me.

Well . . . from my experience, the largest inefficiencies in large engineering firms lies within its executive ranks and in layers of managment. Are any of these folks looking into outsourcing those jobs in order to take advantage of low labor costs?

 

[Cut-Throat]

Re: Lot's of folks will be retiring early.........

I absolutely see what you are saying.  I am only pointing
out the reality of how free enterprise works, i.e.
everyone tries to make the most profit.  This involves getting the most when you sell and paying the least for what goes into your product.  Labor is normally a big
part of goods and services, therefore it makes sense to
try to cut that cost.  Of course our government will
try to placate what you call the "masses".  That's what
governments do.

Yes, I really understand how free enterprise works - that is what leads me to believe this is not just a passing fancy. - that's why I brought it up! In a Service economy (which is what we're supposedly in) Labor is almost all of the cost!

We have child labor laws, other foriegn lands may not. Now, are you against government intervening with children working? Or should government stay out of business people and childrens lives. Tough questions - but ones, that have to be dealt with.

"Placateing the masses" is called government by the people, of the people and for the people. Are you in favor of something else?

 

[unclemick]

Re: Lot's of folks will be retiring early.........

Welcome to the global village. Down here I wouldn't got into a local watering hole and talk up foriegn shrimp, crawfish or catfish.

As a child - after dick and jane - my father taught me how read union made and made in the usa.

Today free enterprise lets me vote my ER dollars, hopefully wisely. I haven't voted in 30 years - but they probably will still let me if I get fired up over something.

Still, I'm inclined to think knowledge of what goods and services we buy will work faster than waiting/voting for more reg.'s

Of course if anyone could resurect my father and send him over to get them unionized - they could afford to buy our stuff.

 

[Cut-Throat]

Re: Lot's of folks will be retiring early.........

Still, I'm inclined to think knowledge of what goods and services we buy will work faster than waiting/voting for more reg.'s

Unfortunately ; thinking you're buying buying American when you buy a Ford or Chevy when they farm out most of the sub assemblies to Mexico is not going to to solve the problem. Most consumers, including me, have no idea where this stuff is made.

I'm not saying I know what the answer is, but I see the problem coming big time. And simple minded politics rarely solves anything. We'd like to think there is a simple answer, but there isn't!

There will be a politican around that has some simple sounding ideas that will attract a lot of attention. And this country can turn on a dime!

 

[Ted]

Re: Lot's of folks will be retiring early.........

This is a partial quote from Cut-Throat

--- 3.3 Million White Collar Jobs are being exported in the next 12 years....


Management: Number of jobs moving overseas by 2015: 288,281

Business: Number of jobs moving overseas by 2015: 348,028

Computer: Number of jobs moving overseas by 2015: 472,632

Architecture: Number of jobs moving overseas by 2015: 184,347

Life sciences: Number of jobs moving overseas by 2015: 36,770

Legal: Number of jobs moving overseas by 2015: 76,642

Art, design: Number of jobs moving overseas by 2015: 29,564

Sales: Number of jobs moving overseas by 2015: 226,564

Office: Number of jobs moving overseas by 2015: 1,659,310

And where are those jobs going? Many are indeed going to India, as portrayed in NOW's story, but others are heading to China, Russia, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and the Czech Republic. In short, they are moving toward cheaper labor costs.

Whenever I see numerical estimates -- which I know are impossible to predict with precision -- presented to 5 or 6 significant figures, it is a pretty good indication that the person presenting the figures is, to put it charitably, unaware of their own limitations.

The number of jobs "moving overseas," and the countries to which they are "moving," is pretty much academic. The important point that Cut-Throat's post totally ignores is that the dollars that American consumers will send overseas to pay for the services of citizens of other countries will ultimately be spent on U.S. goods and services, thereby creating and sustaining other jobs domestically in other industries. And anybody who is the least bit concerned about the welfare of people in other countries should recognize that they are benefitting from the jobs made available to them by international corporations.

When the United States Constitution was written about 220 years ago, the states that were represented were nearly as "sovereign" and independent as nations are today. And yet, the founders had sufficient understanding of economics to recognize that free trade among the states was in the long-term interest of all of the states, even though it necessarily meant that not every state would be equally competitive in every industry.

The mutual benefits of free trade apply to the international community just as much now as they have applied to trade among the states of the Union for the past 220 years. International free trade works to gradually lift the material standard of living for all nations that participate. And experience in virtually every country indicates that increased material wealth from trade leads to improvements in other measures of the quality of life, such as education, women's rights, health care, and environmental protection.

 

[Cut-Throat]

Re: Lot's of folks will be retiring early.........

the dollars that American consumers will send overseas to pay for the services of citizens of other countries will ultimately be spent on U.S. goods and services, thereby creating and sustaining other jobs domestically in other industries.

I'm not ignoring this at all. When you send an $80,000 job overseas that only pays $4,000. You now have $76,000 less to spend on U.S. goods and services. I also agree that foreign lands will benefit in all the areas that you describe.

But, if you don't think the U.S. economy will suffer, I'm not sure you understand. When the U.S. gave away the Manufacturing Jobs in the 70's and the 80's and we became an information economy ; When we give away the Information Jobs ; what jobs will Americans be doing.

It looks like to me that a lot of American workers will have to compete with the world wide workforce that may make $2 per hour!

I'm not proposing that we do anything about this. As I said before I don't have a simple answer. All I'm doing is pointing out that this has huge political implications.

 

[Ted]

Re: Lot's of folks will be retiring early.........

When you send an $80,000 job overseas that only pays $4,000. You now have $76,000 less to spend on U.S. goods and services.

I doubt that very many domestic jobs paying $80,000 could be replaced by foreign ones paying $4,000. As an engineer myself, I recognize that the greater problem (not for the U.S. economy as a whole but for certain affected individuals) is low skilled jobs paying perhaps $15,000 being "sent overseas" for $4,000.

But on a macro level, here's what happens. Say that the $80,000 job here is replaced by a $4,000 job overseas. American consumers now receive the same services for $4,000 and have $76,000 more to spend on everything else! That creates demand for jobs in other industries.

Furthermore, what happens to the $4,000? The only way that foreigners can benefit from these dollars is to ultimately spend them in the U.S. (either by purchasing U.S. goods and services or U.S. financial assets). Sure, the individual who earns the $4,000 doesn't spend it entirely on U.S. assets himself, but through foreign exchange markets, some foreigner does. And that too creates U.S. employment.

On balance, foreign trade neither creates jobs nor destroys jobs. What it does do is to induce people in all countries to move into jobs in which their particular country is the most competitive. And where the U.S. is concerned, these tend to be jobs in "high-tech" industries (including "high-tech agriculture) because the U.S. has the worlds most extensive system of higher education, research and development.

So what about U.S. workers who are displaced? They will have to make the same transition that tens of millions of other workers have made throughout U.S. history. I fully support government programs to help them, such as unemployment insurance and subsidized adult education. But it is neither possible not desirable to have an economy in which everyone is guaranteed the "right" to keep working at the same job throughout their life, at an ever-increasing rate of pay (as unions demand for their members). Some people sometimes have to re-start their careers at lower pay. And the reason that this ultimately raises the overall standard of living is that it makes more and better goods available to consumers at lower prices. If this were not true, America would still be a land of small farms where the average real income would be about equal to that of, perhaps, Russia.

 

[Mr._johngalt]

Re: Lot's of folks will be retiring early.........

Very good Ted. Couldn't have said it better myself and
that is high praise indeed!

 

[Cut-Throat]

Re: Lot's of folks will be retiring early.........

Well Ted, I can only hope you are right! - I'd hate to see a depression.

But, if this economy does not stop bleeding jobs pretty soon and start creating them - We're in big trouble! 'Dubya' knows this.

Also we are bleeding the engineering jobs that you are talking about. There are plenty of the low pay scale jobs around that you refer to. Lot's of the working poor have 2 or 3 of them.

Also the savings that come from exporting jobs to another country is usually not spent here in this country. It is usually pocketed by the few at the top of these corporations and their personal net worth increases, but their spending does not. Also, if they lower their prices to pass on to the consumer - Well ; that is the deflation scenario that I have referred to. That is exactly what worries me about this downturn.

With the technology available today, it is tough for me to imagine a job that cannot be remotely done anywhere in the world.

In the past you are correct Amercians simply did other things. Today though, that work can be exported abroad very, very easily.

 

[REWahoo]

Re: Lot's of folks will be retiring early.........

What seems to be missing from this discussion is the looming retirement of the baby boom generation in the US. A number of studies predict the loss to the labor force of thousands of retiring workers will create a shortage worse than the high employment days of the late 90's. A recent article on Money.com predicted the shortage could start appearing within 18 to 24 months. (I plan to help with the accuracy of that prediction by hitting my ER target in 19 months.)

Whether these predicitons are accurate is arguable, but the facts are that thousands of us boomers will be retiring and the generations following us are siginficantly smaller in number. This will definitely impact the future labor market.

The question is will this situation simply create more opportunities for foriegn workers? No doubt. Will it provide employment opportunities for anyone in the US with the skills and willingness to work? For my kid's sake, I hope so.

REW

 

[Cut-Throat]

Re: Lot's of folks will be retiring early.........

Yeah, I would buy into the Baby Boomer retiring early theory myself except that most Boomers cannot afford to retire early. If you look at the stats, most are still living from paycheck to paycheck!

What could be true is that they will die at their desk in their 50's and 60's - a more likely scenario! Lot's of dead folks will create a lot of job openings!

It will be interesting over the next 10 years to see how the U.S. economy fares.

 

[Bill Griffin]

Re: Lot's of folks will be retiring early.........

It is all about cheap labor, not free enterprise. We are giving away our technology and jobs. When we have nothing left and are all working for minimum wage at the local fast food chain we can rave about how great free enterprise is.

 

[Mr._johngalt]

Re: Lot's of folks will be retiring early.........

Whoa Bill! Get a grip. Looking for cheap labor and other lower costs of operating is free enterprise at
its purest. What would you prefer? Socialism?
Communism? You will get it eventually whether you want it or not. We are
well down that road already

 

[makeitwork]

Re: Lot's of folks will be retiring early.........

What would you prefer? Socialism?
Communism?

ANother basleess conflation. Why so "spring loaded" to leap to socialism or the other one? As if the problems cant be fixed otherwise.

You will get it eventually whether you want it or not. We are well down that road already

And why not? It is to be expected as the logical conclusion to what we call capitalism.

 

[Cut-Throat]

Re: Lot's of folks will be retiring early.........

Whoa Bill!  Get a grip.  Looking for cheap labor and other lower costs of operating is free enterprise at
its purest.  What would you prefer?  Socialism?
Communism?  You will get it eventually whether you want it or not.  We are
well down that road already

Our Constitution guarantees a democracy not Free Enterprise or Capitalism to the extreme! A lot of people don't understand this.

The form of marketplace that we will get is determined by the masses that vote. You would not want a Dictatorship would you? This is called Government of the people, by the people and for the people.

If enough people lose their jobs and standard of living to this cheap labor, there will be a politican that will step to get their vote. Labor Unions could suddenly be back in style as well as FDR 'New Deal' programs.

 

[makeitwork]

Re: Lot's of folks will be retiring early.........

If enough people lose their jobs and standard of living to this cheap labor, there will be a politican that will step to get their vote. Labor Unions could suddenly be back in style as well as FDR 'New Deal' programs.


This is so true. NO American businesman or person who fancied themselves "conservative" or Libertarian or Free-Market oriented seems to know anything about what Adam Smith wrote. They do seem to have freedom capitalism and Feudalism all tied up into a rather ersatz notion of economics

The Gov isnt there to protect business interests. It's there to protect the People, and according to Smith, protect them FROM the nastier inherent tendencies of business interests. The merhcant class's interests are not the same as the public's. Any legislation that's good for the consumer/working man is always good. Legislation that favours the merchant class is not always necessarily good. This is what Adam Smith said on the subject.

The general reaction of business to anything it doesnt like, especially when it comes to workers and the role of government, evokes Groucho's... I mean Karl's statement about them "selling you the rope..."

Given their M.O. what do they expect?

 

[Ted]

Re: Lot's of folks will be retiring early.........

I believe that government policies should establish a legal framework in which people are able to compete according to rules. This, of course, gives certain interest groups the incentive to have the rules made and enforeced in a way that gives them a competitive advantage. Adam Smith recognized and criticized the way that mercantile interests did this -- particularly in their efforts to gain government protection from foreign competition -- including any from the "American colonies." That, in fact, was a major cause of the American revolution.

The U.S. Constitution that eventually resulted, after a period of ineffective confederation, had a couple of important economic provisions. In reserving to Congress the right to regulate interstate commerce, it guaranteed free trade among the states. In effect, it was the first NAFTA, and it worked.

Then, the fifth amendment prohibits government from taking private property without just compensation. That permits government to purchase land and materials for public purposes, but prohibits the sort of outright appropriation that is a hallmark of Marxism. Aside from the ethical implications of appropriating private property, the practical reason why Marxism doesn't do a very good job of meeting consumer demands is that it destroys people's incentives to invent and produce more attractive goods at competitive prices.

The U.S. economy not only provides that incentive, but backs it up with the world's most advanced educational/scientific/financial/legal system. Anybody who thinks that the U.S. economy is about to revert to one of people performing manual labor, because some such jobs are "going overseas," doesn't have a very thorough understanding of economics.

 

[Cut-Throat]

Re: Lot's of folks will be retiring early.........

Anybody who thinks that the U.S. economy is about to revert to one of people performing manual labor, because some such jobs are "going overseas," doesn't have a very thorough understanding of economics.

The jobs sent overseas will only serve to lower the wages of the workers in the U.S. - The workers here may be doing very highly skilled jobs - for $8 an hour!

Also, I do happen to know a lot of folks today that have masters degrees doing construction work to get by. They think it's manual labor, I think it's manual labor - What do you think?

 

[Ted]

Re: Lot's of folks will be retiring early.........

I don't know of anybody doing a "highly skilled job" for $8 per hour -- although a lot of small business owners probably are working for that or less after taking a reasonable return on their invested equity.

For example, auto workers earn something in excess of $20 per hour for work that can be learned failrly quickly by anyone who can read and do simple arithmetic.

As far as working in construction, that's one of the most highly paid (arguably, over-paid) jobs around. I had a friend who was one of the best civil engineers that I have known, who for a while quit a responsible civil engineering position to work as a pipefitter, because it paid more without the hassles. At today's wages, he would be making around $38 per hour. And construction jobs, along with jobs in medical services, education, law, government, and on and on, can't be effectively "sent overseas."

To the extent that some people's wages are reduced by foreign competition, all consumers benefit from the lower prices of goods, and people in U.S. industries that are particularly competitive at exporting, such as agriculture, pharmaceuticals and medical devices, media entertainment, and financial services, all benefit. Free trade works internationally the same that it has done between the states for the past 220 years or so, and floating currency exchange rates and international flow of capital will insure that people with high level skills to sell will genrally prosper, as long as those skills don't become obsolete.

 

[Cut-Throat]

Re: Lot's of folks will be retiring early.........

I don't know of anybody doing a "highly skilled job" for $8 per hour

Ted, you are saying the way that it has been in the U.S. - What I am trying to tell you is the way it will be!

I was wrong about $8 an hour it's closer to $2.50 an hour for a starting software engineer in India that is doing an American Job!

If your job can be done over a phone line your wages are at risk. For those of us that are retired, this has huge implications for investing.

Good article for you to read on this subject.

http://www.courier-journal.com/business/news2003/08/10/biz-front-white10-8577.html