Market Looks Happy this Morning

[street]

The DJIA was at 25,916 on 03/01/19 is what I was referring too. I beleive today it closed about 25,962.

 

[audreyh1]

The DJIA was at 25,916 on 03/01/19 is what I was referring too. I beleive today it closed about 25,969.

OK thanks - I was just confused since you post was after mine.

 

[NW-Bound]

As I mentioned earlier, Micron Technology good earning report last night led the tech sector higher. MU itself went up 9.62% today. Still a long way to go to get back to its own high. Talk about getting beaten, look at Applied Material too (up 4.5% today).

Some of my semi names such as LRCX, and TXN have done better than the rest. But foreign stocks, which I have a bit of, still have a lot to go to catch up with the S&P.

Today's gain ain't bad, but I still need a good 6-figure gain to get back to where I was in Jan 2018.

 

[NW-Bound]

Regarding the Fed's announcement that they are done with rate increases for 2019, I find the sudden dovish stance surprising.

Apparently, the Fed sees signs of economy weakening, while the rest of us just parties on. Anybody sees some signs that he wants to share?

PS. The Fed has decreased the GDP 2019 projection from 2.3% made in December down to 2.1%. Unemployment projection was changed from 3.5% to 3.7%. Longer run, the GDP increase is now 1.9%, and the unemployment 4.3%. They apparently do not believe good times will last.

 

[Montecfo]

As I mentioned earlier, Micron Technology good earning report last night led the tech sector higher. MU itself went up 9.62% today. Still a long way to go to get back to its own high. Talk about getting beaten, look at Applied Material too (up 4.5% today).

Some of my semi names such as LRCX, and TXN have done better than the rest. But foreign stocks, which I have a bit of, still have a lot to go to catch up with the S&P.

Today's gain ain't bad, but I still need a good 6-figure gain to get back to where I was in Jan 2018.

I'm well above my all-time high but of course welcome higher.

 

[Dash man]

Regarding the Fed's announcement that they are done with rate increases for 2019, I find the sudden dovish stance surprising.

Apparently, the Fed sees signs of economy weakening, while the rest of us just parties on. Anybody sees some signs that he wants to share?

PS. The Fed has decreased the GDP 2019 projection from 2.3% made in December down to 2.1%. Unemployment projection was changed from 3.5% to 3.7%. Longer run, the GDP increase is now 1.9%, and the unemployment 4.3%. They apparently do not believe good times will last.

Well, the Fed may be able to analyze past data, but have never been a good predictor.

 

[SecondCor521]

Regarding the Fed's announcement that they are done with rate increases for 2019, I find the sudden dovish stance surprising.

Apparently, the Fed sees signs of economy weakening, while the rest of us just parties on. Anybody sees some signs that he wants to share?

One of the talking heads today was saying that Trump and Powell were playing hot potato with taking responsibility for the assumed upcoming recession/slowdown/whatever. Their train of thought seemed to be that Powell could argue that that because he and the rest of the Fed adopted a very accommodative stance early enough, therefore the slowdown couldn't possibly be his/their fault.

I don't buy the argument, personally, but I'm not sure mine is any better. My opinion is that Powell is still learning how to run the Fed, and I think the Fed is trying to be much more data-dependent and responsive than in the past and is trying to demonstrate that in a public manner.

I also don't think the Fed has concluded that we have a weakening economy; I think they are assuming a modestly growing economy that can meet both the full employment target and the inflation target of the Fed without any further tightening. I think it is just as possible that they will pause for a while and then tighten further, or pause for a long while, or pause for a while and then do a rate cut if unemployment moves up to 5% or more.

 

[Dtail]

I'm well above my all-time high but of course welcome higher.

Still 2.4% below our all time high. We shall see.

 

[audreyh1]

Regarding the Fed's announcement that they are done with rate increases for 2019, I find the sudden dovish stance surprising.

Apparently, the Fed sees signs of economy weakening, while the rest of us just parties on. Anybody sees some signs that he wants to share?

PS. The Fed has decreased the GDP 2019 projection from 2.3% made in December down to 2.1%. Unemployment projection was changed from 3.5% to 3.7%. Longer run, the GDP increase is now 1.9%, and the unemployment 4.3%. They apparently do not believe good times will last.

Yeah - definitely a disconnect.

The market is partying because - yay, lower rates, better for business!

The rates are dropping because the Fed has a gloomy outlook.

What's also odd is the dollar is strengthening against the Euro, even though US interest rates are dropping - it's usually the other way.

What's really shocking to me is that the Fed is pulling back on their balance sheet unwind. I don't get that.

 

[ckelly78z]

Couldn't be happier when I checked my 401K this morning (up 2% just yesterday), and 18.6% this year. Let's hope the volatility dies down, and get steady growth for the remainder of the year.

 

[Montecfo]

Yeah - definitely a disconnect.

The market is partying because - yay, lower rates, better for business!

The rates are dropping because the Fed has a gloomy outlook.

What's also odd is the dollar is strengthening against the Euro, even though US interest rates are dropping - it's usually the other way.

What's really shocking to me is that the Fed is pulling back on their balance sheet unwind. I don't get that.

The balance sheet unwind is tightening, so they are just easing up there too, to be more accomodative.

The dollar did fall on weds. Dovish Fed was expected but announcement more dovish than market expected.

Hopefully we have a runway for growth to increase but Fed did damage in the fall, as seems to always be the case when they tighten.

 

[Another Reader]

I definitely see signs of slowing. I was in Phoenix earlier this week. Restaurants were less crowded, as were the home improvement stores. What really surprised me that Sky Harbor was about half to two thirds as busy as it usually is on a late weekday afternoon. Not a lot of business travelers on my flight to Silly Valley, which was maybe 70 percent full. This is a flight that a year ago would have been packed with business travelers.

What is NOT slowing out there is the real estate market. There is very little inventory in the inner East Valley. Anything decent gets snapped up in a few days. Lower interest rates and strong employment mean demand exceeds supply.

 

[street]

As I mentioned earlier, Micron Technology good earning report last night led the tech sector higher. MU itself went up 9.62% today. Still a long way to go to get back to its own high. Talk about getting beaten, look at Applied Material too (up 4.5% today).

Some of my semi names such as LRCX, and TXN have done better than the rest. But foreign stocks, which I have a bit of, still have a lot to go to catch up with the S&P.

Today's gain ain't bad, but I still need a good 6-figure gain to get back to where I was in Jan 2018.

I just looked I'm up 5.10% from Jan. 2018. I will add that I'm still below my all time high though.

 

[street]

Yeah - definitely a disconnect.

The market is partying because - yay, lower rates, better for business!

The rates are dropping because the Fed has a gloomy outlook.

What's also odd is the dollar is strengthening against the Euro, even though US interest rates are dropping - it's usually the other way.

What's really shocking to me is that the Fed is pulling back on their balance sheet unwind. I don't get that.

Interesting thanks for sharing. I guess time will tell us how this year plays out.

 

[target2019]

Clearly, there are no Black Swans. Never were, never will be!

At the end of this Mar-2019 I expect all of our investing spaces will be at all-time highs, and will need to rebalance back to 50-50 target.

 

[NW-Bound]

Uh oh, the market is not happy today.

It has not opened as of this writing, but the futures are down.

 

[street]

^ Lol.
Happy Sad that what makes it interesting. If it was always happy it would be boring and then maybe not. Lol

 

[Andre1969]

Uh oh, the market is not happy today.

It has not opened as of this writing, but the futures are down.

I just checked my online brokerage account, and it looks like the market is trying to bust a little smirk, at least. Like when they used to try and make Harvey Korman break character in the Carol Burnette show

 

[NW-Bound]

^ Lol.
Happy Sad that what makes it interesting. If it was always happy it would be boring and then maybe not. Lol

The market is bipolar. This, I learned very quickly when I started to watch my portfolio daily some 20 years ago.

 

[street]

I like that description "bipolar" a lot. Lol

 

[MichaelB]

Uh oh, the market is not happy today.

It has not opened as of this writing, but the futures are down.

Anyone notice an inverted yield curve this morning? The 2-5 year Treasuries are yielding less than the 3-12 months. The 10 year is also inverted.

 

[SecondCor521]

Anyone notice an inverted yield curve this morning? The 2-5 year Treasuries are yielding less than the 3-12 months. The 10 year is also inverted.

I have noticed that the 2-5 spread has been slightly negative and that it was worse at yesterday's close. Here we go...?

 

[audreyh1]

Yeah, interest rates have been dropping like a rock since the Fed announcement on Wednesday, and now even the equity market is spooked.

 

[W2R]

Yikes, the Dow is down 435 points already even this early in the day! And bouncing around like crazy (384 points down now).

Yesterday my portfolio balance was just $373 below its all time high. But today that goal looks almost unattainable any time soon.

Oh well. No danger of any "WH***!!!" posts here today. Still, what goes down must come up and vice versa, so maybe another day.

 

[SecondCor521]

Yikes, the Dow is down 435 points already even this early in the day! And bouncing around like crazy (384 points down now).

Yesterday my portfolio balance was just $373 below its all time high. But today that goal looks almost unattainable any time soon.

Oh well. No danger of any "WH***!!!" posts here today. Still, what goes down must come up and vice versa, so maybe another day.

Thank you. Now I'm wondering if I need to track near-Wh***!! moments as they seem to be an indicator as well...