- Joined
- Nov 17, 2015
- Messages
- 13,982
A new study of blood donations suggests that COVID may have been in the US prior to December 13, 2019. https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...eeks-earlier-than-previously-known-study-says
There is some healthy skepticism though (and I only have that after reading a thread rt'd by Scott Gottlieb):
Basically, he's saying if there was really a 2% infection rate in recent blood donors as far back as 12/19 then the infection rate would translate to millions of infections back then, which, while we wouldn't have a test to diagnose would be noticeable and raising alarms, which at least would have been connected when the COVID news started in January. We would have had news reports of a mystery illness and then connected the dots very quickly. Neither happened.
He goes into the technical aspects of how they tested the samples (not the same as how we test for covid in actual patients now), and finds there might have been some false positives in results with other seasonal corona viruses.
And he compares it to sampling of 3600 acute respiratory cases in Seattle from Jan 2020, which were 0/3600 for covid.
Anyway, the thread is an interesting companion read if nothing else.