gcgang
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
- Joined
- Sep 16, 2012
- Messages
- 1,571
https://www.gmo.com/docs/default-so...-asset-class-forecast-(mar-2016).pdf?sfvrsn=4
Above is a link to GMO's (Jeremy Grantham's co) March 2016 forecast for asset class return the next seven years. They publish this quarterly, I think, and their past record has been pretty accurate.
ALL asset classes are projected to have well below average return potential, with only Emerging Markets related making even 2-4% real (2.2% is their inflation assumption), and US Large Cap expected to LOSE 2.1% per year.
Makes sense to me, with the 0% to negative yields around the world. I'm hanging on to my appreciated taxable equity, but keeping the rest much more defensive than usual, both because of valuation and my shortened retired time horizon.
If they're right, expect more pension shortfalls, as most large ones still assume 6-8% on a 60/40 allocation.
Above is a link to GMO's (Jeremy Grantham's co) March 2016 forecast for asset class return the next seven years. They publish this quarterly, I think, and their past record has been pretty accurate.
ALL asset classes are projected to have well below average return potential, with only Emerging Markets related making even 2-4% real (2.2% is their inflation assumption), and US Large Cap expected to LOSE 2.1% per year.
Makes sense to me, with the 0% to negative yields around the world. I'm hanging on to my appreciated taxable equity, but keeping the rest much more defensive than usual, both because of valuation and my shortened retired time horizon.
If they're right, expect more pension shortfalls, as most large ones still assume 6-8% on a 60/40 allocation.