Newly Retired & Survived First Bear Market

[COcheesehead]

Futures down another 4% this morning..... I'm still holding off to dance until my current WDR is half my starting WDR.... it's not going the right way. LOL


Ironically/counterintuitively, since I'll be selling to my MAGI limit at the end of the year, I'll withdraw more total $ if the market is depressed since there will be a greater proportion that is principle and not capital gains (if too much, I'll reinvest and step up my basis).

If they really were down 4%, that would be huge, except they are actually up this morning.

 

[FLSUnFIRE]

If they really were down 4%, that would be huge, except they are actually up this morning.

Ha! Foxbusiness.com has an issue with their feed.... shows INX down 4.6%. I just happened to notice it and thought, wow!. I'm retired and have more to do than watch the market so didn't dig further. lol

 

[COcheesehead]

Ha! Foxbusiness.com has an issue with their feed.... shows INX down 4.6%. I just happened to notice it and thought, wow!. I'm retired and have more to do than watch the market so didn't dig further. lol

Futures are published on Fidelity’s website. I check my account in the morning.

 

[FLSUnFIRE]

Futures are published on Fidelity’s website. I check my account in the morning. I don’t watch TV hardly at all.

No TV here either other than the occasional YouTube rabbit hole, just jumping around news headlines with my caffeine this morning and the sidebar has the futures (or quotes later in the day) and -4% caught my eye.

 

[FLSUnFIRE]

Foxbusiness.com shows futures for S&P down 6% this morning. I actually looked to see if they fixed their bug... nope, doubled down on it. Other news sites seem to be correct down a fraction of a percent.

 

[GTP2022]

Yeah, if you believe in equities, you hold on through the whole roller coaster eh?

Equities funded complete inside and outside home improvements with 3 sheds, landscaping and irrigation. New furniture, 2 new cars and domestic first class travel. Not to mention putting DSD through UCLA

And the best for last, Dream Catcher;

Pops told me when I was young, after you have the house and the cash fund, start buying stocks, that's where you'll make the most -

Nice rig, that's the way to do it!

 

[street]

I FIREd'd over 8 years ago with $1.2M. I've been spending considerably more than I planned each year ($72K-$90K) and when Covid hit I dropped to $1.15M.

I was back up to over $1.6M last December but have since dropped to $1.35M. Still more than I started with.

This year I decided to start Social Security so that I can lessen my withdrawals for a few years, giving my portfolio a chance to take a few deep breaths.

So technically I've been thru two "crashes" so far and haven't had to go to the local food banks. Oh, and like RobbieB, I've managed to pick up a few toys along the way:

Yep, you are doing well and staying on top of the changing times. Being able to adjust and shedding the fat when we have to is a huge plus.

Great looking boat too!!

 

[DrRoy]

I'm newly retired as well, but the bear is not my main concern, inflation is. IMHO, it has raised prices permanently, and even when it slows, the base prices, i.e. of food and other necessitates have been permanently raised.

My bold. This is a valid point.

I don't see grocers' lowering prices anytime soon. The yogurt I buy that went for $1.12 per container to 1.96 per container won't be reduced. Inflation may be pushed down to 2% (FED's target) and prices will continue to rise from the new base.

As retirees in our late 70's, I am concerned that we won't be able to maintain our current lifestyle as prices march up. Health care is rising way faster than daily costs. Even with good Medicare plans, we are spending over $1,000/month on healthcare and I am very healthy, DW, not so much.

+1 on the permanent increase of costs. An .89 container of dog food is now $1.29, a 45% increase. Fortunately, the amount of money spent on such things is fairly small. Our largest spending category is travel, which is totally discretionary.

 

[clifp]

This is my 3rd bear market since I retired in 99/2000. I don't think it is over, so I'm not inclined to pronounce my survival.

 

[braumeister]

This is my 3rd bear market since I retired in 99/2000. I don't think it is over, so I'm not inclined to pronounce my survival.

Same here, retired in 2001. What I learned from past bears is that my best move was to sit on my hands, so that's what I'm doing.

 

[Lawrence of Suburbia]

One must also consider that we're possibly now beginning the next few legs down of a long, grinding bear market. Think 1970s; inflation, stagnant economy, energy price shocks, but add worldwide food shortages, climate change effects, and extreme geopolitical uncertainty as well. Possible shooting wars with the two other superpowers.

There's also downsides to all that; but I don't want to be too negative.

 

[RetiredAt49]

One must also consider that we're possibly now beginning the next few legs down of a long, grinding bear market.

Duly noted…. Guess I should have titled this thread “… still surviving bear market” [emoji16]

 

[OldShooter]

One must also consider that we're possibly now beginning the next few legs down of a long, grinding bear market. ...

or possibly we're not. Most likely we're not.

 

[Lawrence of Suburbia]

or possibly we're not. Most likely we're not.

Trust me, I hope you're right. I retired in 2018 with barely 25x, a "4% Rule"-style retirement; I probably wouldn't survive a 1930s or 1970s scenario.

But this is only my own "wall of worry" ...

 

[MarieIG]

Duly noted…. Guess I should have titled this thread “… still surviving bear market” [emoji16]

Hmm

 

[Franklin]

I don't post much but when i do it is for a reason. Ive dropped $2MM from the market high. It hurts
to see that but I was a bit overfunded anyway. Ive slowly moved into cash (now 30% of my investable assets). I don't think that allocation makes sense long term but Ive decided to see where this rout goes. I think the key is to have a few years expenses in cash and be ready to move back in when it makes sense. The real question is when is that? Ive been thru several downturns but this one seems totally different and sneaky. Don't trust those who tell you this is like XXXXXX. this market is totally different than any Ive seen. ( and I am 66 and in the investment world daily).

wait till
1) the fed says their done
2) inflation starts to decline
3) Dollar falls
4)

 

[FREE866]

I don't post much but when i do it is for a reason. Ive dropped $2MM from the market high. It hurts
to see that but I was a bit overfunded anyway. Ive slowly moved into cash (now 30% of my investable assets). I don't think that allocation makes sense long term but Ive decided to see where this rout goes. I think the key is to have a few years expenses in cash and be ready to move back in when it makes sense. The real question is when is that? Ive been thru several downturns but this one seems totally different and sneaky. Don't trust those who tell you this is like XXXXXX. this market is totally different than any Ive seen. ( and I am 66 and in the investment world daily).

wait till
1) the fed says their done
2) inflation starts to decline
3) Dollar falls
4)

I think it always feels different. If this feels more different than other times I think it's because of the ubiquity of 24/7 news, social media, etc


I do know that based on history "waiting to see what happens" or "waiting to see things settling down first" usually can be a very expensive decision. Sentiment can change...sometimes very quickly....as Marty Zweig used to say bull markets follow bear markets and begin with "violent rallies". Page always turns.

 

[GravitySucks]

I think it always feels different. If this feels more different than other times I think it's because of the ubiquity of 24/7 news, social media, etc

Page always turns.

It may not be completely different this time but stocks and bonds have only both been negative for a year twice since 1926. Both years were before most of us were investors, 1931 and 1969. Looks like 2022 will be number 3.
Less than 10% of quarters since '26 have been negative in both stocks and bonds.

https://www.callan.com/blog-archive/stock-and-bond-declines/

I have no clue what to do about it so I'll plug along at 60/40, rebalance and keep my spending a bit low for now.

 

[RetiredAt49]

Still surviving the bear [emoji199]

 

[JackJester]

hmmm. 'How low can you go?’
"Bear Markets In the U.S. Since 1928: There have been 28 bear markets since 1928. The average decline was 35.62%, and the average length of time was 289 days."

If we think we're average then we have about 11% lower to go: Today's S&P500 YTD -24.62%.

 

[RetiredAt49]

hmmm. 'How low can you go?’
"Bear Markets In the U.S. Since 1928: There have been 28 bear markets since 1928. The average decline was 35.62%, and the average length of time was 289 days."

If we think we're average then we have about 11% lower to go: Today's S&P500 YTD -24.62%.

I signed up for the ride so holding steady….

 

[DrRoy]

I don't post much but when i do it is for a reason. Ive dropped $2MM from the market high. It hurts
to see that but I was a bit overfunded anyway. Ive slowly moved into cash (now 30% of my investable assets). I don't think that allocation makes sense long term but Ive decided to see where this rout goes. I think the key is to have a few years expenses in cash and be ready to move back in when it makes sense. The real question is when is that? Ive been thru several downturns but this one seems totally different and sneaky. Don't trust those who tell you this is like XXXXXX. this market is totally different than any Ive seen. ( and I am 66 and in the investment world daily).

wait till
1) the fed says their done
2) inflation starts to decline
3) Dollar falls
4)

I wouldn't say this is different at all. The Fed is raising rates, a recession is feared, and the market falls. That has happened often. The bottom will almost certainly happen before any of the above do, and then it is even harder to pick a re-entry point.

 

[MarieIG]

Still surviving the bear [emoji199]

Ahhh yes. I retired the same time as you did. Not my first bear - but my first bear as a retired person; so I have plenty of time to contemplate the ramifications . . . As a working person, I did not give it too much thought from a financial perspective.

I did prepare for SORR prior to retirement, but did not anticipate this level of inflation. I suppose I should have, but am not sure what I would have done differently.

 

[MarieIG]

Recently, I have had a rather persistent mental image of a large bear bouncing around on a pogo stick. (Other people have songs in the head, me the bouncing bear.)

It is anticipated that - YMMV.

 

[COcheesehead]

hmmm. 'How low can you go?’
"Bear Markets In the U.S. Since 1928: There have been 28 bear markets since 1928. The average decline was 35.62%, and the average length of time was 289 days."

If we think we're average then we have about 11% lower to go: Today's S&P500 YTD -24.62%.

I used the 35% average down as my re-entry point in 2020. It worked well then. I am holding out for the same now. So there is likely more pain ahead and it all could happen before the end of October.