An interesting post by Ben Carlson (The financial advisor, not the MD) in "A Wealth of Common Sense". He starts with an intelligence memo from early 2001, prepared by a Pentagon staffer, that lists a "world view" each decade of the 20th century based on then current events but had been unforeseen even a decade earlier. The point is "no one knows what will happen".
He then applies the same approach to financial predictions. Well worth reading. The conclusion:
He then applies the same approach to financial predictions. Well worth reading. The conclusion:
Link here No One Knows What Will HappenBy 2016, people assume we’re in a secular stagnation, interest rates and inflation will never rise in the future, no one can innovate anymore, bonds are unstoppable in the midst of a 40+ year bull market, there are negative interest rates around the globe and the Fed has been propped up both the market and the economy. Very few people are optimistic about the future.
All of which is to say that I’m not sure what the next 10, 20 or 30 years will look like, but I’m sure that it will be very little like we expect, so we should plan accordingly.
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