O&G stocks

[dunkelblau]

One way to think of energy valuation is "how much of the S&P 500 is energy". Right now even with the run up it is at historically low levels. I think there is room for it to move higher. I have a chart, but not a link, and I don't think I can add an attachment.

Here's a related perspective in terms of PCE:
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/05/energy-expenditures-as-percentage-of-pce.html
In general, energy expenditures as a percent of PCE has been trending down for decades. The huge spikes in energy prices during the oil crisis of 1973 and 1979 are obvious. As is the increase in energy prices during the 2001 through 2008 period.

The blue shaded areas are recessions. The 2016 to 2020 period flatlined at a half-century trough, then Covid took it down another half point until the vaxes came out. It surprised me how this number now sits below what our parents and grandparents experienced when they were our age, puts into context the yearning for the days of quarter a gallon gas (at single-digit mpg).

 

[Montecfo]

Goldman now predicting oil prices will average $140 between July and Sept, up from $125.

They predict prices closer to $160 will be needed to curtail demand.

Bullish for my independent producers.

 

[madatrub]

Energy has another run left in it. Product pricing wont unwind for whats likely another year. Verticals are just as good as independents at this point.

 

[NW-Bound]

O&G stocks have been pummeled last week, then this week too.

What's happening? The world is done with oil and gas, and going totally green?

 

[BeachOrCity]

O&G stocks have been pummeled last week, then this week too.

What's happening? The world is done with oil and gas, and going totally green?

The amount of demand destruction to kill prices rather than lower them is more than a typical recession would generate. So unless one is thinking economic collapse, these companies still have a good future financially.

Some of these companies are trading at just a few times cash flow.

Definitely bargains out there

 

[aja8888]

O&G stocks have been pummeled last week, then this week too.

What's happening? The world is done with oil and gas, and going totally green?

Profit taking. As soon as I sold my XOM, things when to hell. I'm out of energy except for a small position in OXY. I also have some midstreams, but those were bought in the Pandemic.

Oil is volatile, get used to it.

 

[finnski1]

Profit taking. As soon as I sold my XOM, things when to hell. I'm out of energy except for a small position in OXY. I also have some midstreams, but those were bought in the Pandemic.

Oil is volatile, get used to it.

+1 I unloaded 2/3rds of my COP about a month ago. It has been pummeled in the last 10 days to the tune of about 29%. Glad I dumped it. The 1/3rd I kept is still healthily in the green but at this pace who knows.

 

[NW-Bound]

I don't care if people take their profits, but they also take away mine.

Man, I am hurting. They are still up YTD, but with the heavy beating they are taking, they no longer provide the boost to cancel out the loss of my other stocks that got pounded, such as semiconductors.

 

[Car-Guy]

It's been brutal for my O&G stocks the past week or so... Still hanging on though. Somebody has to pay for the profits you guys are taking. Now I'm paying for gas on line and at the pump...

 

[finnski1]

It's been brutal for my O&G stocks the past week or so... Still hanging in though. Somebody has to pay for the profits you guys are taking. Now I'm paying for gas on line and at the pump...

Yeah I hung on to my COP for years of ups and down and the dividends were pretty good but I vowed this cycle that I would take some profits before it trough-ed down on me. It was pure luck on the timing. I am amazed how far they have fallen in 2 weeks. Though I shouldn't be.

 

[NW-Bound]

I knew any party would end at some point. But this early?!? Dang.

I just have to sell a lot more covered calls to make it back. But not today. These stocks get pounded again.

 

[aja8888]

I knew any party would end at some point. But this early?!? Dang.

I just have to sell a lot more covered calls to make it back. But not today. These stocks get pounded again.

Oh, I also sold FENY (O&G ETF) which I bought at $13/share. Sold $21.

Recession talk also spooks energy stocks.

 

[ncbill]

I'm hoping my direct (wells, not stocks) oil & gas investments will return ~20% this year.

May oil stay above $100/bbl for years!