perinova
Full time employment: Posting here.
- Joined
- Apr 18, 2006
- Messages
- 534
In other words when will it be best time to buy?
Some links with expert opinions might be good.
Some links with expert opinions might be good.
tio z said:When eveyone says they can't go up.
* The last bubble took about 6 years to unwind. This one is *much* larger.
* There's a new housing price futures market. The current prediction is a nation-wide median price drop of 5% for next year. Futures markets often represent the best preditions since people are betting real money on the outcomes.
Arif said:I'm still of the mind that the market overall doesn't matter to me and much as what is happening to my local market. There are still buyers for homes in my market. Prices never went up over 5% per year during the last few years so I don't expect prices to collapse here. Now San Diego, SF, Boston and FL might be a different story. BTW there has been at least one survey that shows several towns in the US with home prices that were undervalued. IIRC there were several places in TX that were undervalued.
"Our June survey of real estate agents indicated that housing trends worsened from already-weak levels," Bank of America analyst Daniel Oppenheim wrote in a June 28 client note. "We now expect a 48 percent decline in earnings in 2007 and a 72 percent decline in 2008 based on the weak trends and our expectations for the future."
Arif said:I'm still of the mind that the market overall doesn't matter to me and much as what is happening to my local market. There are still buyers for homes in my market. Prices never went up over 5% per year during the last few years so I don't expect prices to collapse here. Now San Diego, SF, Boston and FL might be a different story. BTW there has been at least one survey that shows several towns in the US with home prices that were undervalued. IIRC there were several places in TX that were undervalued.
from what i read texas and colorado are pretty overbuilt and for some reason have a huge number of foreclosures and ARM/IO loans. if there is a surge of foreclosures there in the next few years as the loans reset to higher rates you will probably see prices drop as builders keep on building
Arif said:Maybe some parts of central TX like Austin is over built...
Arif said:I don't know anything about CO but in TX I think what you are seeing there is people getting mortgages that weren't suppose to. For instance, folks that don't make enough money buying a house with little or no down and the low int. rate with the ARM. That scenario would happen whether there was a bubble or not. It is more a function of these exotic/risky mortgages.
you'll clearly see their previous bubble peak in 1989 and recover around 1996. Similar story but different timeframe for Boston and others.
I would think it more likely that when someone retires, they move to their vacation home and sell their primary residence for the boost it will give their retirement portfolio. I tend to hear of people getting rid of extra real estate when they retire rather than hanging on to multiple homes.Peter76 said:One question: does anyone have any info/data on the % growth of second vacation homes? As boomers retire (and people spend more of their disposable income on things like vacation homes), the number of homes will go up relative to the population/GDP, and might account for a small part (but obviously the housing bubble accounts for most of the froth vs GDP in recent years).
audreyh1 said:I would think it more likely that when someone retires, they move to their vacation home and sell their primary residence for the boost it will give their retirement portfolio. I tend to here of people getting rid of extra real estate when they retire rather than hanging on to multiple homes.