dex
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- Joined
- Oct 28, 2003
- Messages
- 5,105
Here is my guess on the negative stock cycles that we must go through. There is some overlap on these.
The month at the end is when I think it will be through the cycle and no longer an issue - it may seem early because the stock market looks forward.
1. Macro Economic - 75% complete - the credit crunch being addressed - Nov/Dec
2. Macro Economic - 60% complete - Non US credit crunch - Dec/Jan
3. Lower Consumer spending - 10% - complete - Dec
4. Presidential Election - 75% complete - assumes Obama wins - Nov
5. Make up of the Congress - 0% complete - if majority Dems - negative for stocks - Nov
6. Decreased company earnings - 10% complete - Nov
7. Higher heating costs - 0% complete - Nov/Dec
8. Higher unemployment - 10% complete - Feb/Mar
I'm guessing the next dip to buy is Nov - after the election.
January up? with a higher low into the summer? then up from there?
until inflation fears begin?
Did I miss any?
The month at the end is when I think it will be through the cycle and no longer an issue - it may seem early because the stock market looks forward.
1. Macro Economic - 75% complete - the credit crunch being addressed - Nov/Dec
2. Macro Economic - 60% complete - Non US credit crunch - Dec/Jan
3. Lower Consumer spending - 10% - complete - Dec
4. Presidential Election - 75% complete - assumes Obama wins - Nov
5. Make up of the Congress - 0% complete - if majority Dems - negative for stocks - Nov
6. Decreased company earnings - 10% complete - Nov
7. Higher heating costs - 0% complete - Nov/Dec
8. Higher unemployment - 10% complete - Feb/Mar
I'm guessing the next dip to buy is Nov - after the election.
January up? with a higher low into the summer? then up from there?
until inflation fears begin?
Did I miss any?