Playing to Lose on Ebay

[Texas Proud]

In my experience the benefits are real.

I've played an on-line game for a few years with an auction functionality (fantasy football, buy & sell players for your team).

Due to the psychology it turns out (again, my experience) that the best prices are had when you bid in small, standard increments at the last minute within an auction.

In addition, don't bid up immediately after someone else has bid up (call it "reaction bidding"). If you display "slow and steady" behavior the most competitors seem to give up. I guess it destroys some of the random fun in the bidding process.

Worst bidding prices I've seen conversely were for items that get bid up in large steps early in the process.

This of course next to choosing the right time of day, availability of other similar items etc ..

A fantasy game has zero correlation with bidding on eBay...

First, there is a limited number of bidders
Second, everybody has to 'win' to get a full team...

and probably many other reasons I cannot think of right now...

 

[stepford]

And I think I will believe eBay more than the snipers.... they have more data points.....

And I will believe my financial advisor the next time he tries to sell me an annuity or his own special mutual fund. He has more experience than I do and the fact that he makes more money that way has no effect on the advice he's giving me.

 

[Texas Proud]

Uh, the article says: "It's true that in some cases sniping an auction rather than bidding on it outright can reduce the price at which it ultimately closes"

Obviously not in all cases, but on some obscure items, or plentiful items, it can reduce the end price at least somewhat.

I'm a regular snipe user. I would never consider bidding on an eBay auction without sniping. That's just dumb. There's absolutely no upside to bidding early. All you're doing is signalling your intentions to other potentially interested bidders.

I've found myself bidding on items before where I said, "My max price for this is $30. No more." I'd bid and be on top at $24. Then 2 minutes before the end of the auction, someone else would bid it up to $32. And I've caught myself saying, "Well... OK, I guess I'd pay $35." So I'd bid. And win it. But I could have saved $5 if I hadn't telegraphed my intentions so early.

I use a service called BidNip. Snipes only cost $0.25/ea. and you don't pay unless you win the auction. Sniping is just the way of the world regarding online auctions. There's no good reason to bid early, and potential benefits to sniping. So why wouldn't you snipe?

And how do you KNOW that the person who bid $32 did not have a max bid of $32 You do not.. There is NO way you know if you would have won with a bid of $24 on that item...

I did say REGULAR advantage.... probably a bad word... but sure, I bet that you might have won an item at a cheaper price by sniping... but you do not know for sure... and that is the whole point.... you do not know... you just think you do... eBay is looking at every auction and can tell if there is an inherent advantage or not... and they say not.... who should I trust, you or them?

How many times have you sniped and not won the item?


BTW, I do not get on eBay that much... but I have won items with bids I put in day earlier...

 

[GrayHare]

In my experience, sniping nets the lowest price since it counters the competitive-bidding element found in all auctions.

 

[easysurfer]

I can see sniping working in an ideal situation. That is, where most of the other bidders are nibblers who manually try to enter bids at the end of the auction. But I don't see any advantage sniping has over those who proxy bid and set a max. Plus, if you snipe and go against others that snipe, then wouldn't there still be a bidding war? This will happen near the auction close instead of through out the auction.

Now, in auctions with an auctioneer where the person uses the going once, twice, three times things, I've seen where the auctioneer places down the hammer, then still takes last second bids and the other bidders get ticked .

 

[GrayHare]

Plus, if you snipe and go against others that snipe, then wouldn't there still be a bidding war?

Time expires before much of a bidding war can develop.

 

[easysurfer]

Time expires before much of a bidding war can develop.

I see that about time expiring.

But, take my example (why I started the thread anyhow, but bidding amounts changed to protect my bid ), I'm bidding on a mechanical keyboard that I'm willing to pay $75 for. So, I put in my proxy bid of $75 max. Right now, I'm in the lead at $35 with 5 hours to go.

If you snipe, you still need to have a max in mind. I see how you might catch folks who nibble off guard in the end, but ultimately, it's your max vs my max, plus all the other proxy and snipe bidders too. I don't see the real advantage, unless you just happen to go up against those who don't proxy bid.

 

[kombat]

I see that about time expiring.

But, take my example (why I started the thread anyhow, but bidding amounts changed to protect my bid ), I'm bidding on a mechanical keyboard that I'm willing to pay $75 for. So, I put in my proxy bid of $75 max. Right now, I'm in the lead at $35 with 5 hours to go.

If you snipe, you still need to have a max in mind. I see how you might catch folks who nibble off guard in the end, but ultimately, it's your max vs my max, plus all the other proxy and snipe bidders too. I don't see the real advantage, unless you just happen to go up against those who don't proxy bid.

I think the idea is mainly one of how your "max bid" can actually changed based on altered perceptions. You mention you're in the lead at $35 on an item you consider to be worth $75. But what if you hadn't bid at all yet, and the item was still sitting at it's opening bid of $1 (or whatever)? Maybe I see that same item, and I think it's worth $40. In the sniping scenario, you set up a snipe at your max bid ($75) and I set one at mine ($40). 5 seconds before the auction ends, both of our bids go in, and you get the item for $41.

But you've tipped your hand. By putting your bid in early, I see that the item is worth at least $35, or pretty close to what I thought was my max bid. So I submit my $40 bid, and now see you're still in the lead at $41.

Now I'm curious - am I really so far off on the value of this item? Maybe it really is worth more than I thought. I do some Googling, some research, check other auctions to make sure I'm not just being bid up, and discover that my initial valuation of $40 is unreasonably low. I discover that these items routinely go for $75-$80. Now my "max" has changed.

I now realize I'm never going to get one of these items for $40, so I need to be more reasonable with my expectations. So I submit another bid for $75. As it happens, this was also your max bid, so you're still in the lead. However, I have no way of knowing that that was your max. For all I know, if I bid $80, $85, or $100, maybe you'll still be in the lead. Or maybe your max was $99 and I'll get it for $100, and have overpaid. But at $75, you're still winning, so I give up and look elsewhere. Time eventually expires and you get the item for $75.

Now, if you'd used a sniping program, the bid would have sat at $1, and I might not have realized that my own valuation of $40 was unreasonably low. I'd have set up a snipe at $40, you'd have set yours at $75, and you would have won the item for $41. But instead you got it for $75, because you gave me time to think about it, and your bid prompted me to reconsider my own expectations.


If sniping programs didn't generate an advantage, nobody would use them.

 

[Texas Proud]

I can see sniping working in an ideal situation. That is, where most of the other bidders are nibblers who manually try to enter bids at the end of the auction. But I don't see any advantage sniping has over those who proxy bid and set a max. Plus, if you snipe and go against others that snipe, then wouldn't there still be a bidding war? This will happen near the auction close instead of through out the auction.

Now, in auctions with an auctioneer where the person uses the going once, twice, three times things, I've seen where the auctioneer places down the hammer, then still takes last second bids and the other bidders get ticked .

On your second sentence.... that is against the law here (I was told that by an auctioneer).... if the auctioneer says 'sold', he cannot take any more bids....

The place I have been a few times.... the guy is real good at reading the bidders.... he can usually tell if someone is out or just thinking about it... and he will cajole you to make that last bid... if he can tell you are out, he closes it right away....

 

[easysurfer]

I think the idea is mainly one of how your "max bid" can actually changed based on altered perceptions. You mention you're in the lead at $35 on an item you consider to be worth $75. But what if you hadn't bid at all yet, and the item was still sitting at it's opening bid of $1 (or whatever)? Maybe I see that same item, and I think it's worth $40. In the sniping scenario, you set up a snipe at your max bid ($75) and I set one at mine ($40). 5 seconds before the auction ends, both of our bids go in, and you get the item for $41.

But you've tipped your hand. By putting your bid in early, I see that the item is worth at least $35, or pretty close to what I thought was my max bid. So I submit my $40 bid, and now see you're still in the lead at $41.

Now I'm curious - am I really so far off on the value of this item? Maybe it really is worth more than I thought. I do some Googling, some research, check other auctions to make sure I'm not just being bid up, and discover that my initial valuation of $40 is unreasonably low. I discover that these items routinely go for $75-$80. Now my "max" has changed.

I now realize I'm never going to get one of these items for $40, so I need to be more reasonable with my expectations. So I submit another bid for $75. As it happens, this was also your max bid, so you're still in the lead. However, I have no way of knowing that that was your max. For all I know, if I bid $80, $85, or $100, maybe you'll still be in the lead. Or maybe your max was $99 and I'll get it for $100, and have overpaid. But at $75, you're still winning, so I give up and look elsewhere. Time eventually expires and you get the item for $75.

Now, if you'd used a sniping program, the bid would have sat at $1, and I might not have realized that my own valuation of $40 was unreasonably low. I'd have set up a snipe at $40, you'd have set yours at $75, and you would have won the item for $41. But instead you got it for $75, because you gave me time to think about it, and your bid prompted me to reconsider my own expectations.


If sniping programs didn't generate an advantage, nobody would use them.

Thanks for a detailed example. I do see that as for the price, there is no real benefit to bid early and how that might influence the end price. Better to keep the bids until near the end. However, I tend to bid early to make sure I don't forget to bid.

About "If sniping programs didn't generate an advantage, nobody would use them.", I'm not sure about that conclusion. Think market timing programs for getting an advantage in the stock market. Why are they still around?

 

[easysurfer]

On your second sentence.... that is against the law here (I was told that by an auctioneer).... if the auctioneer says 'sold', he cannot take any more bids....

The place I have been a few times.... the guy is real good at reading the bidders.... he can usually tell if someone is out or just thinking about it... and he will cajole you to make that last bid... if he can tell you are out, he closes it right away....

The live auctions I've been to weren't fancy places. There'd be times he's go, going once, going twice, going...(pause for several seconds) then ask if the person was bidding or not awfully close to when he put down the hammer.

 

[calmloki]

Was thinking of flipping or renting out a local house - it had been one owner since the mid 50's, then vacant for the last 3~ years. Great bones, unmolested. It had been listed at $120 with a real estate agent for the last several months with no action. Auction.com put it up with a starting bid of $25k, winner pays 5%. I watched the bidding go to 119,500. With buyer's premium that meant an out of pocket price of $125,475. I get auction fever too, but mostly that just means I max out at a low fair price. If I used a sniper program it would be rare for me to buy anything, because I am so darn cheap my max bid would be peanuts.

 

[easysurfer]

Well, the auction I was bidding on ended. I was leading into the final minute but think my bid got sniped. The winning bidder went $5 over my bid.

He got a great bargain on a used Unicomp (IBM Model M type) mechanical keyboard for $74. But I really don't mind as my cutoff was $69.

 

[easysurfer]

The Day After

Ok. I looked at the bid log of the bid I did not win. Looks like there was no sniping, but just that someone had an automatic bid higher than me. After I folded, another person bidded higher but then the winner placed a manual bid to [-]get suckered [/-]win on the auction.

I do see how sniping can win against the nibblers who fall behind then go ahead and try to bid more in the final moments but the clock runs out.

 

[easysurfer]

Unless it's a buyitnow I always use an eBay bidding snipe program to make my bids. It's a program that waits until the last few seconds to submit your bid for you. Just decide at the beginning the max I'm willing to pay and ignore it until it ends. If I find a better deal or get a change of heart before the bidding ends it's easy enough to cancel my bid on the snipe program.

After doing some more reading, like the old Monkees song, "I'm a Believer".

Next time I go ebay shopping, I'm gonna use a snipe tool.

 

[easysurfer]

The value of something on ebay is determined by the bid progress. Well, at least psychologically. I was bidding yesterday on a used DVD but there were no bids. I put in my max snipe bid of a little over $4. But come auction end, no one bidded. The min bid was $3. Now I didn't want the DVD at $3 as I could wait and see if the seller will re-list at a lower price. Had I not used a snipe bid (which I cancelled the scheduled bid), my early $3 bid may have driving the price up.

Now I've got my sites on a mechanical keyboard like the one that got away last time .

 

[Texas Proud]

The value of something on ebay is determined by the bid progress. Well, at least psychologically. I was bidding yesterday on a used DVD but there were no bids. I put in my max snipe bid of a little over $4. But come auction end, no one bidded. The min bid was $3. Now I didn't want the DVD at $3 as I could wait and see if the seller will re-list at a lower price. Had I not used a snipe bid (which I cancelled the scheduled bid), my early $3 bid may have driving the price up.

Now I've got my sites on a mechanical keyboard like the one that got away last time .

Why would you think that your $3 bid would have driven up the price when NOBODY bid at $3 Do you really think that someone who does not want it at $3 will say 'hey, that easysurfer dude bid on this and even though I do not want it at that price I will bid $4"?

I do not.

I think you could have won it at $3....

 

[easysurfer]

Why would you think that your $3 bid would have driven up the price when NOBODY bid at $3 Do you really think that someone who does not want it at $3 will say 'hey, that easysurfer dude bid on this and even though I do not want it at that price I will bid $4"?

I do not.

I think you could have won it at $3....

I agree with you that in this case I may have won at $3.

But in other instances when something has more than zero bids, I think seeing a bid price climb does influence the non-disciplined bidders.

As a comparison, why do investors buy high and sell low? Inexperience or emotion takes over.

 

[Texas Proud]

I agree with you that in this case I may have won at $3.

But in other instances when something has more than zero bids, I think seeing a bid price climb does influence the non-disciplined bidders.

As a comparison, why do investors buy high and sell low? Inexperience or emotion takes over.

I agree that emotion can take over in bidding... I have seen it at live auctions, so I would assume that it happens on Ebay... but that is usually in the heat of the moment and not days or even hours before the sale... and also from a good auctioneer that knows how to get the emotions going... I just do not see this as a factor online...

Also, there is no way to know what bid is emotion and what bid is someone just values it more than you...

It is also easy to say that my max bid is $100 and I see it go to $105 just before the end and say... OK, I will go to $110... is that emotion or me wanting to get a sure thing now as opposed to a possibility to get it at $100 later?

 

[easysurfer]

I agree that emotion can take over in bidding... I have seen it at live auctions, so I would assume that it happens on Ebay... but that is usually in the heat of the moment and not days or even hours before the sale... and also from a good auctioneer that knows how to get the emotions going... I just do not see this as a factor online...

Also, there is no way to know what bid is emotion and what bid is someone just values it more than you...

It is also easy to say that my max bid is $100 and I see it go to $105 just before the end and say... OK, I will go to $110... is that emotion or me wanting to get a sure thing now as opposed to a possibility to get it at $100 later?

I think there's a lot of factors involved in your example of getting something at $100 despite that being $10 over your original limit. Factors are how much you really want/need the item and how much work is involved too. For example, is the $10 saved by not buying worth the time waiting for another auction to come along at that price? Or what if you can get that for $10 cheaper at a store, but then that means a 5 mile drive? Is that worth the $10 saved?

That said, to keep using small increments on bids, I'd then become in nibbling territory .

 

[easysurfer]

I just got out sniped on my bid for a mechanical keyboard. My snipe bid was entered with 6 seconds (the default of the free snipe service I'm using) left of the auction. Then one bid a second later sniped and bidded $1 more than my bid to win. I guess he was willing to pay more than me, simple as that.

Win some/lose some. I got another snipe bid in the hopper to try again in about a day.

 

[easysurfer]

I'm 0-2 snipe bidding. I still like the strategy, but the most recent auction, the winner did a proxy bid that was higher than what I am willing to pay. So, despite me having a bid in the final 6 seconds, the bidder won once ebay sorted all the bidding out.