Poll: 15 Consecutive Up Months?

[NW-Bound]

Something for fun:

ERD50 had a thread where he shared the tidbit that 2017 was the 1st time the market was up for all 12 months in a year.

I observed that the market was up for 14 consecutive months from Nov 2016 through Dec 2017. See this: http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/2017-s-and-p-500-sets-a-record-90100.html#post1990496.

So, do you think we will have another up month to make it 15 consecutive months?

PS. I close the poll after 14 days, so people who procrastinate will not get a better chance of getting it right.

 

[Bigdawg]

Why not?

 

[NW-Bound]

Mods, please add 3 more choices. Thank you.

3) Don't know

4) Don't care

5) Don't know and also don't care

 

[rodi]

Mods, please add 3 more choices. Thank you.

3) Don't know

4) Don't care

5) Don't know and also don't care

Done.

 

[NW-Bound]

Thank you. I now can vote on my own poll.

It's the choice half-way down.

 

[Mdlerth]

Don't know or care

If I ever had the ability to know the future that clearly, I'd be writing this from my private island. Or more likely have my minions write this for me while I lay in my hammock eating peeled grapes.

But it turns out I care very little. Sure, it's nice to see those account balances go up steadily every time I check them. But it won't make much difference to me what the market does over the coming month, or year. Since I haven't bid adieu to the rat race, I still have the option of extending my departure date if the market fell like a stone.

DW and I determined as of December that we are now fully FI; it's had the counter-intuitive effect of suppressing the urgency of pulling the trigger. I had expected hitting that milestone would have made me more excited than ever to punch out ASAP. Uh uh. It's been a calming rather than stimulating accomplishment. We are now trying to figure out not the earliest possible exit but the optimum one.

So if 14 months becomes 15 or 20, or if it retreats by 30%, it's unlikely to prompt me to change a thing.

 

[kgtest]

I had a dream that it was 18 months in a row...so sure, why not. OR maybe that was a dream about something else that was 18.

 

[Winemaker]

I had a dream that it was 18 months in a row...so sure, why not. OR maybe that was a dream about something else that was 18.

+18

 

[target2019]

Since the end of Jan 2016, our NET gain has been positive in 22 out of 23 months. There is nothing like being overpaid, and having your investments increase like this.

The only similar period in my life was one self-employed stretch in the 90's, where money coming in was unbelievable (at least for me). Fortunately, I banked a great deal of that, which kept us going through a long drought (dot.com bubble and 9/11).

I also noticed this year that there was a large crop of acorns. The squirrels were very busy indeed.

 

[Taxman59]

target2019: "I also noticed this year that there was a large crop of acorns. The squirrels were very busy indeed."

+1
Our front yard is barely grass, all covered in acorns. The squirrels couldn't keep up (they even just nibbled at the bulbs my DW planted! )
Doesn't a large crop of acorns mean a cold winter?

 

[ERD50]

Voted "Don't Know", but I might have voted "Don't Know, but DO care" if available.

But I don't really care about a single month so much, other than on a personal level, and to illustrate something to some friends.

Early last year, these friends came into a decent sized lump sum, and asked me about investing. I had already talked to them about broad-based index funds and DIY, so they knew about that. I explained that statistically/historically, that just dumping it in all at once (per your AA) is the best odds. But a DCA over 12 months might help any feelings of regret if you put it all in and there was a sudden downturn. And likely not much difference between the two, so do whatever makes you comfortable.

Well, one spouse was being told by a relative that the market was going to tank in the next two weeks (!), and to hold off, and wait... I kept trying to tell them, might happen, but no one can predict. Do what you want, but I sure would not try to time the market in that way.

Took them about 7 months of watching the steady rise in the market to finally put their $$$ in, so they missed out on a lot of gain. So I hope the market keeps rising for a while, to make that lesson sink in for them.

-ERD50

 

[Car-Guy]

Sure, why not. The correction is coming, I just don't think it's going to "start" this month. YMMV.

 

[Lsbcal]

Something for fun:

ERD50 had a thread where he shared the tidbit that 2017 was the 1st time the market was up for all 12 months in a year.

I observed that the market was up for 14 consecutive months from Nov 2016 through Dec 2017. See this: http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/2017-s-and-p-500-sets-a-record-90100.html#post1990496.

So, do you think we will have another up month to make it 15 consecutive months?

PS. I close the poll after 14 days, so people who procrastinate will not get a better chance of getting it right.

You are asking for January? Because we have had 3 good days already and the market is up now as I write this. So my answer should be "Sure, why not"

Now if you are asking for February we are all on more equal footing.

 

[NW-Bound]

Yes, we have a good start. On the other hand, we have all seen the market turning on a dime.

I feel like posting the song by Boy Dylan once more, but struggle to restraint myself.

 

[target2019]

target2019: "I also noticed this year that there was a large crop of acorns. The squirrels were very busy indeed."

+1
Our front yard is barely grass, all covered in acorns. The squirrels couldn't keep up (they even just nibbled at the bulbs my DW planted! )
Doesn't a large crop of acorns mean a cold winter?

Yes, it does mean that.
In the fall, I also noticed more deer coming through our area, to feast on moss, acorns, and the best plants.

 

[38Chevy454]

Why not keep riding the wave? Not that I can control it by any means, but it's been a great ride! Realistically, like ERD50, it's the longer term year results that make a bigger effect than a down month; several down months such that the year results are negative has a bigger potential impact.

 

[kgtest]

Yes, it does mean that.
In the fall, I also noticed more deer coming through our area, to feast on moss, acorns, and the best plants.

The squirrels went after my pumpkins this year. The ones I put out on the step for the trick or treaters. Shoulda known. -15 is starting to feel "not that cold"

 

[Red Badger]

I went with don't know, but was also inclined to select why not. I think the corporate tax cut (and cash repatriation) will have significant economic legs. However, in full disclosure, my crystal ball is in the shop for a tuneup....

 

[Andre1969]

I voted "Sure, why not?" I think historically, January tends to be an up month, anyway? Anyway, at least the first few days of it have been good; I'm up 1.7% already. [-]Wheee![/-]

I looked back on my own records, and at first glance, it looked like I had a little hiccup in March...down about 0.7% from February. But then I did a bit more digging through my files, and saw that I threw a fairly big chunk of money at the mortgage that month. So, that's probably what did it.

 

[Danmar]

How can anyone answer other than “I dont know” because they don’t?

 

[mickeyd]

I demand compensation in advance for my thoughtful, foolish responses.


Send cash to the usual South TX PO Box.

 

[kcowan]

How can anyone answer other than “I dont know” because they don’t?

The joy of an anonymous poll!

 

[Tallman4123]

I know...I'm just not telling.

 

[RobbieB]

Not only do I not know, I don't care either.

 

[UnrealizedPotential]

I voted don't know. But I can guess. I think 2018 will be a decent year as investors react to the tax cuts and the growth of the economy. I do think we will have down months in 2018 but January will be up. Beyond that I am not feeling too confident. Somethings gotta give. If we follow the roaring 90's pattern then sometime in late 2020 or early 2021 is when the bear market will hit.

Will we make it that far? I doubt it. But hey, I'm just guessing, no one really knows.