Poll: 15 Consecutive Up Months?

[dallas27]

This is my personal monthly graph over last 4 years, bottom line is saving, higher line adds in home equity.

It can’t keep this trend forever....

 

[MarieIG]

Don't know;

Do care.

 

[Running_Man]

How can anyone answer other than “I dont know” because they don’t?

They could answer because of the following reasons:

1) the odds of stock market any month closing higher than the previous month is nearly 2-1 in favor of an advance by historical measures.

2) Starting with an upside to the month increases the odds even higher.

3) Years that follow a year with a greater than 10% upside are more than 70% positive.

If this was Vegas laying 1-1 odds would be a fool to bet against an up month. It would probably have closed the 14th about 8-1 against a down month.

 

[Closet_Gamer]

I don't know, do care (options vesting soon, so "up" right now is tactically important).

More generally I think the question on the turn isn't up or down but the volatility of the down and the follow-on psychological effects on investors. We've so quickly moved into new territory that I think it's hard for people to calibrate on the percentages rather than the numbers.

100 Dow points when the Dow was at 10k was a 1% move. Stack a few in a row and something has really happened. 100 Dow points at 25k shouldn't even register as Much more than an aberration, yet the financial news still reports 100 points breathlessly.

On the flip side, when we do take a 10% correction, how will the typical investor reaction to CNBC wailing about a drop of 2500 points on the Dow? Or, even we catch a modest bear, 5000 points? CNBC will no doubt roll out entirely new graphics with skewed graphs where the y-axis crosses at 17500 showing the tremendous, unheard of, first-in-history 5000 point drop.

I have no idea when this will happen but if it happens soon (before people have had a chance to mentally recalibrate), I think this is quite likely to induce more volatility to the down side.

 

[Senator]

I think it will be up.

The economy is cruising along nicely. Boomers are retiring and have disposable money. Everyone that wants a job has one.

Consumer confidence is very high. That leads to spending.

The tax cuts will give 85% of Americans more spending. Bonuses and raises have been announced for many companies giving their workers more money. Less taxes will give businesses more profits.

And I am even getting great stock tips from my shoe shine boy.

Of course, maybe the market increase is due to stealth money dilution.

 

[audreyh1]

After the first two weeks our portfolio has already recovered over half our withdrawal. It would take a good drop to go negative.

 

[audreyh1]

They could answer because of the following reasons:

1) the odds of stock market any month closing higher than the previous month is nearly 2-1 in favor of an advance by historical measures.

2) Starting with an upside to the month increases the odds even higher.

3) Years that follow a year with a greater than 10% upside are more than 70% positive.

If this was Vegas laying 1-1 odds would be a fool to bet against an up month. It would probably have closed the 14th about 8-1 against a down month.

Good list.

I was going with January is usually a positive month and we’ve had a big jump already in Jan.

 

[Senator]

And the profits for 2018 will even be better.

S&P 500 profits are expected to have risen 11.2 percent in the fourth quarter of last year, according to UBS strategist Keith Parker. This would be the second-strongest earnings growth period since 2011, Parker noted.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/11/ear...a-really-good-one.html?recirc=taboolainternal

 

[btdt22]

I voted 'don't know' but after reading some of these responses I now wish I had voted - don't know - don't care