Poll: Market bottom and recovery time?

[CCdaCE]

I voted 50% down and 3-5 recovery. I feel like my response to this question is/was the same as my response and subsequent followups to the link below:

Summary: I thought Mr Market was overvalued in 2015, and look where we are and what I would’ve missed if I had sat out 100% or not contributed new money since. Waiting for “a drop”. Whatever that’s defined as…

https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f30/trying-to-time-the-markets-106352-2.html#post2509394

I resumed contributions in the end of 2015/early 2016 I think?. VASGX was around 26, and is 41.63 today, for reference.

-CC

 

[single2019]

It's a distinction without a difference in my case, since the distribution from the tIRA is taxable as ordinary income no matter how it is done, and there are no basis considerations in a Roth. Hence, there is no need or benefit to a transfer in kind. I try to keep things as simple and ordinary as possible, so there is the least chance of a problem.

But don’t you have to wait for the settlement before moving money from tIRA to Roth?

 

[Gumby]

I have only Vanguard mutual funds in those accounts, so I don't think it matters. I just tell them I want to convert and the "to" and "from" and they handle it. In any event, a day or three out of the market is small potatoes in the long run.

 

[mickeyd]

"Nobody knows nuttin" Jack Bogle

 

[Powderjunkie]

….reading through a plethora of responses rings home that one needs to have a solid handle on liquidity needs (1-3yrs) before transitioning to early retirement especially during periods of increasing uncertainty (or perhaps heightened awareness of the uncertainties out there). I know for many this seems so obvious and basic. Thanks for the thoughtful posts.

 

[GenXguy]

I voted 50% down and 3-5 recovery.

Certainly possible. GMO Co-founder Jeremy Grantham is expecting stocks to drop 40% to 50%. I've seen some predictions that go much worse.

I went with 40% with 3-5 year recovery.

 

[Markola]

"Nobody knows nuttin" Jack Bogle

Especially in the short run. Looking 1, 2 or 3 decades out, nobody still knows nuttin, but there is time for any kinks to be worked out of our 50/50, globally-diversified portfolio of index funds, and for our property values to escalate, so I try to stay focused on the horizon.

 

[Lsbcal]

Note this forum area is for active investing. So talk about how to react to the markets is not to be discouraged. Even wild ideas need some airing.

Personally I don't have any problem with Boglehead thinking but it is not the only investing method.

Also I notice the thread is about where the bottom is. Maybe responses should focus on that. Gee, I feel like a moderator.

 

[Markola]

Note this forum area is for active investing.

Where is that stated, please? Sometimes the rules around here are not very clear.

 

[NW-Bound]

Where is that stated, please? Sometimes the rules around here are not very clear.

I know it's easy to miss.

If you look at the top of this page, it says "Active Investing, Market Strategies & Alternative Assets".

Stock picking, option trading, gold coins, NFTs, and bitcoins go in here.

 

[REWahoo]

Where is that stated, please? Sometimes the rules around here are not very clear.

https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/

Scroll down to the description of the Active Investing Forum.

 

[Lsbcal]

Where is that stated, please? Sometimes the rules around here are not very clear.

See the title for this part of the ER site (above) under Community Forums:
Active Investing, Market Strategies & Alternative Assets

The "Fire and Money" section might be best for strong Boglehead viewpoints.

 

[corn18]

I like visiting this forum. I can live vicariously through the posters.

 

[Markola]

See the title for this part of the ER site (above) under Community Forums:

Active Investing, Market Strategies & Alternative Assets



The "Fire and Money" section might be best for strong Boglehead viewpoints.

I see now. Thanks to both of you above.

 

[Montecfo]

Certainly possible. GMO Co-founder Jeremy Grantham is expecting stocks to drop 40% to 50%. I've seen some predictions that go much worse.

I went with 40% with 3-5 year recovery.

He's been expecting that for a decade or so.

He's expecting a "dangerous" year and recommends we "avoid US stocks".....in the year 2013!

https://www.forbes.com/sites/schifrin/2012/10/24/jeremy-grantham-warns-2013-will-be-a-dangerous-year-for-stocks/

 

[Born2Fish]

He's been expecting that for a decade or so.

He's expecting a "dangerous" year and recommends we "avoid US stocks".....in the year 2013!

https://www.forbes.com/sites/schifrin/2012/10/24/jeremy-grantham-warns-2013-will-be-a-dangerous-year-for-stocks/

Well, SPY was only up about 30% at the end of 2013.

 

[Montecfo]

^^^ Indeed!

I believe Stephanie Pomboy of Macromavens was also mentioned in this thread.

I read she has a decidedly negative outlook for stocks. In this Barron's article (paywall, sorry) she predicted a grim outlook for stocks and possible return to 2009 lows.

That was in 2016!

Not sure why people listen to these folks.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/stephanie-pomboy-a-grim-outlook-for-the-economy-stocks-1471670011