Poll: Market bottom and recovery time?

[Winemaker]

I started investing back in the early 1970's as I had a good job and the company had a "Stock savings plan". I remember going to a broker, signing on for an account, and placing a trade for a stock like GM and paying a fee of (I'm guessing) $75/trade of 100 shares. There were no computer's to trade with. And if you wanted to know the price of a stock you looked it up in the newspaper (yesterday's price). For today's price, you called the broker.

The funniest thing to me nowadays is the thought process of investing today. using your example, aja, when you bought that GM , you held it for a while. When you received your quarterly statement, that's when you found out whether you were up or down, unless you looked in your Sunday newspaper. When you bought a bond, you were happy clipping coupons and you were on top of the world. Now with online prices available continuously, some folks trade all day long for a few cents here and there, or are wringing their hands over a $10 loss on a bond in a day. Back then, you didn't know, so you didn't wail and gnash your teeth.

 

[aja8888]

The funniest thing to me nowadays is the thought process of investing today. using your example, aja, when you bought that GM , you held it for a while. When you received your quarterly statement, that's when you found out whether you were up or down, unless you looked in your Sunday newspaper. When you bought a bond, you were happy clipping coupons and you were on top of the world. Now with online prices available continuously, some folks trade all day long for a few cents here and there, or are wringing their hands over a $10 loss on a bond in a day. Back then, you didn't know, so you didn't wail and gnash your teeth.

Yes, I remember getting the quarterly statements and finding out where I stood. I guess the other things in life during those three month period were more important than what GM was doing day to day.

 

[24601NoMore]

Technical analysis seems like reading tea leaves to this engineer, yet it appears to have significant predictive value.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/technical-analysis-of-stocks-and-trends.asp

Seems like tea leaf reading to me as well.

But as you said, it does seem to have predictive value.

Probably because a HUGE number of people (and importantly, "Big Money" managers) subscribe to and believe in it - so it in essence becomes a self fulfilling prophesy.

Plus, the Algos are likely largely programmed to follow it. They very obviously look for support and resistance levels and buy and sell around those all day long. Just look at today. Below 4,300. Minimally above 4,300..and back and forth and back and forth..with a close a couple dollars above it.

If that ain't Algos doing TA, I don't know what is..

 

[jazz4cash]

Yes, I remember getting the quarterly statements and finding out where I stood. I guess the other things in life during those three month period were more important than what GM was doing day to day.

Yep. Quarterly statements for the new and unproven 401k plan. If you wished to adjust your investments, custodian executed those trades on the 1st and 15th of the month only.

 

[Out of Steam]

Seems like tea leaf reading to me as well.

But as you said, it does seem to have predictive value.

Probably because a HUGE number of people (and importantly, "Big Money" managers) subscribe to and believe in it - so it in essence becomes a self fulfilling prophesy.

Plus, the Algos are likely largely programmed to follow it. They very obviously look for support and resistance levels and buy and sell around those all day long. Just look at today. Below 4,300. Minimally above 4,300..and back and forth and back and forth..with a close a couple dollars above it.

If that ain't Algos doing TA, I don't know what is..

True, when the algorithmic trading that dominates the market is based on TA, it can't help but be predictive to some extent.

 

[nash031]

However, things have changed.

... "This time, it's different."

 

[marko]

I decided to switch to mostly dividend stocks, too. I don't know what the market will do. It seems like a good 50% drop is overdue, so I only have enough in stocks where that amount won't hurt (much). Otherwise I add up our dividend income from stocks, our TIPS ladder and other fixed income, a little odds and ends income (product reviews, credit card rewards, recycling rewards, etc.), Social Security and pensions and I'm pretty happy.

We come out ahead during high inflation because our recurring, annual expenses subject to high inflation are pretty low compared to our inflation adjusted income.

This being a retirement forum, I'd guess that many here are more interested in income--however you may derive it--than in building basic portfolio value.

They're sort of related but again, even during the '08/'09 debacle my dividend income remained stable enough to keep body and soul together...and then some! even though my NW plummeted...for a while.

 

[HarryHawk]

So weird, I"m actually seeing the shelves fuller than they were. All last year I couldnt' get my favorite fizzy water and now its in stock every week. I use to go in the afternoon and Aldis had like no fruit/veggies but is fully stocked now at 3 in the afternoon. The stores for a few weeks didn't have any sales other than their brands and now are doing the $5 off $30 grocery coupons again.

The local pizza place just announced they dropped the menu price of 10 wings by $2 because they use to be charged $175/case of wings and its been steady at $125/case for the past month.

And its not just groceries, 2x4s are 25% cheaper from their high. The local car dealerships finally have cars on their lots as they are slowly able to build back up inventory..a few cars at a time.

I know I read someone said their food bill was up 30% and I looked and our food bill is actually less than it was last Feb and so was Jan YoY.

That is interesting, was in Aldi's today. From my shopping list - none of these were on the shelves -- frozen french fries, coffee creamer, frozen lasagna, vanilla wafers, frozen mexican entrees, frozen chicken nuggets. (and I didn't have a long list)

Maybe you can send me a care package

 

[Looking4Ward]

I started investing back in the early 1970's as I had a good job and the company had a "Stock savings plan". I remember going to a broker, signing on for an account, and placing a trade for a stock like GM and paying a fee of (I'm guessing) $75/trade of 100 shares. There were no computer's to trade with. And if you wanted to know the price of a stock you looked it up in the newspaper (yesterday's price). For today's price, you called the broker.

And by 1981, two significant milestones were reached - the cable launch of The Playboy Channel and the Financial News Network

Almost real time market tickers were suddenly and widely available.

 

[sengsational]

That is interesting, was in Aldi's today. From my shopping list - none of these were on the shelves -- frozen french fries, coffee creamer, frozen lasagna, vanilla wafers, frozen mexican entrees, frozen chicken nuggets. (and I didn't have a long list)

Maybe you can send me a care package

The problem is you went to Aldi They're like Walmart...more interested in squeezing their suppliers than assuring everything is available. That's great for prices, but you can't have it both ways. I'm not the shopper in my family, but the main shopper says cheap grocery stores require flexibility.

 

[disneysteve]

The problem is you went to Aldi They're like Walmart...more interested in squeezing their suppliers than assuring everything is available. That's great for prices, but you can't have it both ways. I'm not the shopper in my family, but the main shopper says cheap grocery stores require flexibility.

I disagree. I do most of our shopping at Wegmans, hardly a "cheap grocery store". The shelves are bare. Lots of products out of stock. Some entire sections empty.


The supply chain issues are real and are affecting all stores.

 

[RobbieB]

Haven't seen it yet. Unlike the "great covid paper shortage" of 2020.

 

[NW-Bound]

I don't know if any of you go grocery shopping. I just got back from a shopping trip. I would say about a third of the shelves/freezer space was empty. No frozen french fries, no coffee creamer, no frozen chicken, etc, etc. Heard on the radio that the price of fertilizer is up 300%.

It is hard for me to convince myself that our economy is healthy. I have never seen anything like this in my 70 years on earth. It seems to me that there is some probability that stuff is going to get real. Hope I'm wrong, I am old and crotchety after all.

So weird, I"m actually seeing the shelves fuller than they were. All last year I couldnt' get my favorite fizzy water and now its in stock every week. I use to go in the afternoon and Aldis had like no fruit/veggies but is fully stocked now at 3 in the afternoon. The stores for a few weeks didn't have any sales other than their brands and now are doing the $5 off $30 grocery coupons again.

The local pizza place just announced they dropped the menu price of 10 wings by $2 because they use to be charged $175/case of wings and its been steady at $125/case for the past month.

And its not just groceries, 2x4s are 25% cheaper from their high. The local car dealerships finally have cars on their lots as they are slowly able to build back up inventory..a few cars at a time.

I know I read someone said their food bill was up 30% and I looked and our food bill is actually less than it was last Feb and so was Jan YoY.

Wow, two completely opposite stories. Of course, you are both just observing what's happening where you are, but why such a dichotomy?
What's going on here?

I have not seen anything unusual where I am, in terms of grocery pricing and availability.

 

[gcgang]

https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/history-us-bear-bull-markets-1929

Looks like average bear market lasts 10 months and declines 36%.

The 1930’s look crazy, almost a new bull and bear market every year, while the 1929 highs weren’t reached again until the Eisenhower administration.

 

[Badger]

I have dry powder for a few more shares if the market drops below 20+% based on my stock investments. Right now it is about 8.7 from this year's high. I will also take my RMD from the stock portion of my IRA.
(Question: Do you still have to wait 30 days to buy the same stock or MF if you sold those when taking RMD?)


Cheers!

 

[N02L84ER]

The 30 (or technically 61) day wait is only for wash sales in taxable accounts or if the brokerage has rules about buying the same stock after a sale.

 

[cbo111]

In Bradenton, FL, we've had a shortage of saltine crackers for several weeks. I checked at different Publix stores and Walmart. Seems strange that a product with such basic ingredients would be in short supply.

 

[GenXguy]

In Bradenton, FL, we've had a shortage of saltine crackers for several weeks. I checked at different Publix stores and Walmart. Seems strange that a product with such basic ingredients would be in short supply.

Same here. I think I made 5 straight trips over a few weeks time to Walmart, and the most boxes of saltine crackers they had was one, and that was just once. They were cleared out the other trips. I decided to start checking online, and it showed they were in stock the day after I had just been there, so I ran out and got a few boxes. Then a week later, I was out there again, and no crackers again.

 

[GenXguy]

I have dry powder for a few more shares if the market drops below 20+% based on my stock investments.

S&P 500 20% down from record close seems pretty likely in this environment of overvalued stocks, war in Ukraine, FED taking the foot off the gas and increasing interest rates, and inflation. I've seen a couple experts calling 40% drops.

 

[HarryHawk]

In Bradenton, FL, we've had a shortage of saltine crackers for several weeks. I checked at different Publix stores and Walmart. Seems strange that a product with such basic ingredients would be in short supply.

I'll trade you a box of crackers for a container of coffee creamer.

 

[Aerides]

In Bradenton, FL, we've had a shortage of saltine crackers for several weeks. I checked at different Publix stores and Walmart. Seems strange that a product with such basic ingredients would be in short supply.

I'll trade you a box of crackers for a container of coffee creamer.

Publix has has shortages on cream cheese for months. And heavy/whipping cream on limits.

However, Costco has both of these with no indication of supply issues. I think it has more to do with costs and supplies of individual chains and locations, than basic product and ingredient.

 

[Badger]

The 30 (or technically 61) day wait is only for wash sales in taxable accounts or if the brokerage has rules about buying the same stock after a sale.

Just to be clear. Are you saying that if I sell shares of a mutual fund in my tIRA to satisfy my RMD then I can turn around as soon as it clears in a day or two and repurchase those shares in my taxable account within the same company (Vanguard) and not have a problem with the IRS?


Cheers!

 

[corn18]

Just to be clear. Are you saying that if I sell shares of a mutual fund in my tIRA to satisfy my RMD then I can turn around as soon as it clears in a day or two and repurchase those shares in my taxable account within the same company (Vanguard) and not have a problem with the IRS?


Cheers!

Yes, because you don't technically have any gains or losses in a tax sheltered account.


What you cannot do is sell shares at a loss in your taxable account and then immediately buy those shares in a tax sheltered account. That is a wash sale.

 

[Badger]

Yes, because you don't technically have any gains or losses in a tax sheltered account.


What you cannot do is sell shares at a loss in your taxable account and then immediately buy those shares in a tax sheltered account. That is a wash sale.

Thanks!


Cheers!

 

[Gumby]

Yes, because you don't technically have any gains or losses in a tax sheltered account.


What you cannot do is sell shares at a loss in your taxable account and then immediately buy those shares in a tax sheltered account. That is a wash sale.

That's the way I understand it too. So when I do Roth conversions, I sell in the tIRA, transfer the proceeds and and immediately buy the same thing in the Roth. All in Vanguard.