Poll: Market bottom and recovery time?

[disneysteve]

Publix has has shortages on cream cheese for months. And heavy/whipping cream on limits.

However, Costco has both of these with no indication of supply issues. I think it has more to do with costs and supplies of individual chains and locations, than basic product and ingredient.

Actually Philadelphia cream cheese has been in very short supply nationwide. The company even ran a promotion recently where they would send you money toward buying a different dessert since they knew you couldn’t get cream cheese to make what you wanted.

 

[Aerides]

Actually Philadelphia cream cheese has been in very short supply nationwide. The company even ran a promotion recently where they would send you money toward buying a different dessert since they knew you couldn’t get cream cheese to make what you wanted.

Yes, I remember that, and at the same time, it was well stocked in Costco, and has been since. Odd.

 

[Winemaker]

I haven't eaten a Saltine cracker in over 50 years, you can have all mine. Now, if I couldn't find graham, cheezits, wheat thins, triscuits, or Ritz, I'd be panic stricken. When We couldn't find Mini-Moos at our local Sam's, we just bought them online from Sam's, delivered free to the door. Cream cheese and sour cream are household staples here for use in our daily veggie dips. Haven't experienced a shortage of any of these.

 

[Fermion]

So...where was the option for down 10% 3 days for recovery?

 

[TheWizard]

So...where was the option for down 10% 3 days for recovery?

Hey, c'mon.
Are you sure you're panicking enough?

 

[Librarian]

Yep. Family trust cashed out in November.
NOW this had been in the plans for 2 years.
But our YA children each have a nice chunk of change as do we.
None of them have invested before; frankly neither have we. Our teachers' salaries didn't allow much extra--luckily our teachers' pensions are very sound & have done very well over the years.
We found an Ibond to do a small investment.
We also found a HY savings account to drop a nice chunk into at the bank my brother is an investment banker for. (.75%--such a pathetic number but remarkably high for savings). It is a long standing family bank, so we feel good about that.
So for NOW, we are all educating ourselves for a few months & watching the market.
I had been doing some preliminary research & was a tad nervous about a correction.
Then some serious family issues have consumed my time so I haven't had time to worry about it. Just as well.

 

[FIREarly]

The answer might be somewhere between Ukraine and Russia

 

[Lisa99]

Don't know and I am fortunate enough to be able to not care.

I have no debt, like beans and rice and have recently learned how to make sourdough bread. I'm planning a garden for spring and am looking forward to learning how to can/preserve. Should SHTF I'm as prepared as I can be for a city girl.

 

[Lstansbury]

That's the way I understand it too. So when I do Roth conversions, I sell in the tIRA, transfer the proceeds and and immediately buy the same thing in the Roth. All in Vanguard.

Yes, if the tIRA is a self directed IRA, not an employer account. (Im assuming that is so, but I've never really understood tIRA versus just IRA).

 

[almost there]

A decade of near zero interest rates for no reason and insane printing in 2021 created the bubble. Our dollar has been devalued. Energy costs will be going up for the next several years. inflation is here to stay. .. Normal interest rates will cause a real effect. As we have never seen rates like the past 10 years in our 5000 year history. Uncharted waters...

 

[single2019]

That's the way I understand it too. So when I do Roth conversions, I sell in the tIRA, transfer the proceeds and and immediately buy the same thing in the Roth. All in Vanguard.

Why wouldn’t you transfer in kind?

 

[Gumby]

Why wouldn’t you transfer in kind?

It's a distinction without a difference in my case, since the distribution from the tIRA is taxable as ordinary income no matter how it is done, and there are no basis considerations in a Roth. Hence, there is no need or benefit to a transfer in kind. I try to keep things as simple and ordinary as possible, so there is the least chance of a problem.

 

[Ger0n1mo]

Ben Carlson had a good analysis about the US stock market during times of war and other fateful events:
https://awealthofcommonsense.us7.li...21d353d5c31ea3b6a5&id=5e2fd5fe1d&e=7cc2c934ce

 

[RockLife]

Hey, everyone..looks like we are in a the midst of a big downdraft with no end in sight...
Curious on other perspectives..

When I was young, my wife and I went on our honeymoon to the Cayman Islands. The day we showed up, it was cloudy and slightly rainy so we asked a local guy when the weather would improve. He replied, "Sometimes it does this. It usually clears up in a few days". And he was right.

It's about as easy for us to predict the market today as it was for an island guy to predict the weather decades ago. My answer is: "Sometimes it does this". I don't try to time the market, I just don't. I think it's a losing game. Good luck.

 

[11522914]

I disagree. I do most of our shopping at Wegmans, hardly a "cheap grocery store". The shelves are bare. Lots of products out of stock. Some entire sections empty.


The supply chain issues are real and are affecting all stores.

We went to Publix this week and were quite surprised to find many products out of stock. Huge sections of bare shelves. Particularly frozen items.

 

[street]

Ben Carlson had a good analysis about the US stock market during times of war and other fateful events:
https://awealthofcommonsense.us7.li...21d353d5c31ea3b6a5&id=5e2fd5fe1d&e=7cc2c934ce

That was a very interesting article and thanks for sharing that. The events in the world can come with market booms or busts. One just never knows and have to have a plan for long down turns and that is about that one can do.

 

[Helen]

Ben Carlson had a good analysis about the US stock market during times of war and other fateful events:
https://awealthofcommonsense.us7.li...21d353d5c31ea3b6a5&id=5e2fd5fe1d&e=7cc2c934ce

"Because the war basically ground the business world to a halt and market liquidity all but dried up, the decision was made to close the stock market that year. This lasted for six months, the longest such period on record."

Whoa, imagine having all stock assets locked up for six months. Guess having money in CDs is a good idea.

 

[HarryHawk]

Whoa, imagine having all stock assets locked up for six months. Guess having money in CDs is a good idea.

Probably doesn't hurt to have a cache of good old fashion physical cash. As we are seeing in the Ukraine, if heaven forbid stuff gets real, people are going need a wad of cash to get out of Dodge.

In worst case scenarios, banks could close or be shut down due to a cyber-attack. The same way it's not a bad idea to have a go bag, there is no downside to having a roll of greenbacks somewhere close at hand (and well hidden).

Let's hope we never need to find out.

 

[Lsbcal]

"Because the war basically ground the business world to a halt and market liquidity all but dried up, the decision was made to close the stock market that year. This lasted for six months, the longest such period on record."

Whoa, imagine having all stock assets locked up for six months. Guess having money in CDs is a good idea.

That was 1914. Entirely a different economy back then. Agriculture was big, no broad relatively wealthy middle class, etc. In my opinion, that event is not a good lesson for nowadays.

I am hoping we have hit the bottom last Wednesday. No guarantees of course.

 

[Midpack]

Don’t know, don’t much care. No one else here knows either…even if they say they do.

 

[NW-Bound]

I have not voted.

I do care, but I don't know, and I don't think anybody would know.

The Ukrainian invasion throws a monkey wrench into the world economy. No telling if it may escalate.

 

[Lsbcal]

I have not voted.

I do care, but I don't know, and I don't think anybody would know.

The Ukrainian invasion throws a monkey wrench into the world economy. No telling if it may escalate.

Good point. I voted before this became a full scale invasion. I like to think that the West will be united by this event and that the eventual effects will be positive overall in the coming years. I am most worried about China and particularly the Taiwan situation. But what the immediate economic effects will be is hard to analyze, perhaps more persistent inflation in food and energy.

Of course, for Ukraine itself this is really really bad.

 

[Ballhawker]

You forgot a choice in your poll. The bottom is in by end of February and it is up from there. 2022 S&P 500 return = up 10%. That so many are so bearish in this country when we are not in a recession has historically been a very positive contrarian indicator.

Regardless, the answer is always to sit tight and not tinker with my portfolio and waste time with predictions. If I need some money I will withdraw it, but otherwise, it stays put in equities for the long haul.

I suggest anyone with doubts should do a review of FireCalc results over any 30 year period in history!!!

 

[marko]

Y
Regardless, the answer is always to sit tight and not tinker with my portfolio and waste time with predictions. If I need some money I will withdraw it, but otherwise, it stays put in equities for the long haul.

IMO this is a "Don't just do something...stand there!" period we're in.

 

[brydanger]

Doesn't look good to me... seems everyone should start to worry when investing dollars into something that no longer relates to dollars (or logic)

Glad I don't rely upon that money or Id spend all day watching the screen and stressing out.