Possibly moving to Las Vegas

Those with longer memories of the 2008 - 09 market and RE crash....it took 2 years after 2008 for real estate houses to really get sold off and repriced. I bought a 2,000 sq ft three year old brick ranch house just a mile south of The Woodlands in a really nice area for $62/sq.ft in mid 2010. My daughter and her husband now live in it and Zillow shows it at ~$300,000. (I paid $124,000).

We are just now seeing mortgage rates rising to near 6%. I will make a guess that the real estate cooling off period will take a good year or so, but if rates and inflation keep rising, RE will get repriced.


I helped my daughter buy her 1st home in March 2011 for $76K. The previous owner paid $200K in March 2008.

When my daughter got married, she sold the home for $175K in Sep 2017.

The home just changed hand again in April 2022 for $355K.

It's a townhome of less than 1,000 sq.ft. It's in a nice subdivision near a 4-star resort, but still...
 
Those with longer memories of the 2008 - 09 market and RE crash....it took 2 years after 2008 for real estate houses to really get sold off and repriced. I bought a 2,000 sq ft three year old brick ranch house just a mile south of The Woodlands in a really nice area for $62/sq.ft in mid 2010. My daughter and her husband now live in it and Zillow shows it at ~$300,000. (I paid $124,000).

We are just now seeing mortgage rates rising to near 6%. I will make a guess that the real estate cooling off period will take a good year or so, but if rates and inflation keep rising, RE will get repriced.


I hope we can do something like that for our kids in the next crash. They were still in school in the last housing crash and we had no idea where they might want to live when they reached adulthood back then.
 
I'm not sure how much REPRICING RE will get. A large percentage 25 or 30 percent, of homes are bought in cash, or with big down payments.

Yes. In our case we will have a down payment of $300k to $350k, with a mortgage of $100k to $125k. Interest rates are not a huge factor to us with that low a mortgage. If rates go down we could refinance. If they didn't we could pay it off in a few years if we wanted to.

Maybe if you HAD to move, but I really dont see inventory climbing to above 4 or 5 months supply to have a REPRICE take effect. A cooling off sure.

As someone hoping to buy in Las Vegas in a few months, I am not expecting home prices to come down. I am hoping that by then the market will be a little less competitive making it easier to actually complete a purchase.

But who would list their home if you had a 3 or 4 percent mortgage to buy something else on a 5 or 6 percent mortgage? I dont see many people moving around unless they absolutely had to at this point. I could be way off.

I have one of those mortgages and will be buying something else at a higher interest rate. We don't absolutely have to move.

So why do it voluntarily? We have an existing house that we think this is a great seller's market for us. Now if we were something "moving up" in a home then this might be a terrible time to sell because then we would become buyer's in a huge seller's market.

But, we in the opposite position. We are going to buy a less expensive house with a small mortgage. So -- overall -- we benefit more from the market than we are harmed by it. In short, this is a great time for someone to sell who is downsizing.
 
We live in Palm Springs, CA and many of the sales here are all cash. Our realtor advised us to buy with cash if we could as it makes the offer stronger. We followed his advice and refinanced after it closed because rates were so low.

During the 2008-9 crash, this market crashed hard because so much of the market here was second homes. That’s still true, but when there is another crash in the real estate market, I’m wondering if it won’t be quite as bad. There seem to be more full-time owners here now due to the pandemic. Many younger people escaped LA, OC, San Francisco, Seattle and Portland to live and work remotely here. And the homes we know of that have been purchased in our neighborhood seem to have been bought by relatively affluent people rather than people stretching their budgets to afford to buy.

Time will tell I suppose, but as long as remote working is feasible, it seems likely that this area will continue to do well. Although homes are much more expensive here than they used to be, you still get more for your money if you sell a property in a big West Coast city and move to the desert. And the lifestyle here is pretty nice without many of the urban problems of the bigger cities.
 
In the LV valley, the majority of the home buyers are from Washington, Oregon and California. Our homes are considered to be "cheap" because after selling ther homes and buying here, they get to keep some of the money. I don't see real estate prices coming down in the LV area anytime soon, if ever.
 
In the LV valley, the majority of the home buyers are from Washington, Oregon and California. Our homes are considered to be "cheap" because after selling ther homes and buying here, they get to keep some of the money. I don't see real estate prices coming down in the LV area anytime soon, if ever.


The majority of people coming to Nevada are from California. Followed by Arizona, Utah, then surprisingly Florida and Texas. Oregon is 8th and Washington is 10th on the list.

https://www.reviewjournal.com/local...tates-send-the-most-people-to-nevada-2412741/

I do see a lot of Florida plates while we are here. The only way I see prices come down meaningfully is if rents start to tank. Still too much investor activity and compared to California, Seattle, Denver we are still very cheap.
 
The majority of people coming to Nevada are from California. Followed by Arizona, Utah, then surprisingly Florida and Texas. Oregon is 8th and Washington is 10th on the list.

Florida and Texas don't surprise. It is because they are so large. Let me put it this way. I just put a search for single family homes for sale in Texas right now. There are over 97000 of them. Single family homes for sale in Nevada? 6780. There are just so many more people moving from Texas that for probably most states Texas will be high on up the list.
 
Florida and Texas don't surprise. It is because they are so large. Let me put it this way. I just put a search for single family homes for sale in Texas right now. There are over 97000 of them. Single family homes for sale in Nevada? 6780. There are just so many more people moving from Texas that for probably most states Texas will be high on up the list.



Also property taxes are high in TX and FL compared to NV. And NV lacks hurricanes and humidity.
 
Also property taxes are high in TX and FL compared to NV. And NV lacks hurricanes and humidity.

Oh, for sure. Certainly reasons for us. Well, not so much the hurricanes since we moved away from the Houston area. In DFW we have to worry about hail and tornadoes.
 
Take some water! I live in Phoenix and we own the water rights from Las Vegas and Denver. Las Vegas has restricted growth, made near zero water landscape the law and has been under drought restrictions for more than a decade. Nice city but the future really depends and rain and snow fall. Where can you get water if it doesn't rain or snow?
 
At one point we considered Henderson based on information from someone we know who lives there.

We ended up in New England for a multitude of reasons, but a big concern for us with deserts was water, and second was extreme heat.
 
Who wants to work for the Man forever! You can live very inexpensively in the Vegas area. Get out now, free up some of that overpriced equity and Live !

The world is you oyster !
 

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I don't know about those other factors but...

You have listed a lot of pluses and minuses, but a big plus for me personally, when I go to a desert my bones stop hurting.
 
There is one VERY BIG NEGATIVE you have not considered...

Negatives we have considered:

Healthcare - I know there is a shortage of doctors and good specialists. We almost moved to Las Vegas 4 years ago and this was one thing that concerned us then. The situation seems a bit better now. We will handle this in a couple of ways. If need be, we will get concierge doctors (I don't love this option but if that is what is needed to be able to quickly see someone then we can do it). And, for any really complex specialty needs we will fly to LA or Phoenix. 4 years ago that option was suggested and it seemed outlandish. But last year I chose to go to Houston for cataract surgery and for some other medical stuff. That 5 hour drive was really not a big deal.

Crime - I have looked at this a lot. I plan to handle this mostly by choice of where we live. We will only buy a house with a garage. I am leaning toward a gated community. I don't love HOAs but in this case I may seek one out.


There are other negatives, of course, but those were the ones I was most concerned with. Anyway, would appreciate any feedback from people familiar with the area.

Other places we seriously considered:

Vancouver, WA. I loved the location in Washington but over the river from Portland. The mild summers are great (and we could tolerate the rain). But -- we don't really like outdoor activity and that is a big draw for a lot of people in that area. For us, there isn't really anything special to do there. Housing is very expensive. And the potential for disasters is higher than I really like. Also this is a long, long way from Texas and the people we know there and it is a long way to travel anywhere.

Albuquerque/Rio Rancho, NM. DH actually lived in Albuquerque for a year as a child. His dad was in the Navy and he mostly grew up in southern California but he spent a year in Hawaii and a year in Albuquerque and he has fond memories of it. The housing market is much, much less expensive there which was a huge draw for me. Crime is bad (although not so bad in Rio Rancho). The state is very poor and I worry about the financial stability of the state. Also Albuquerque is a little small for us and is sort of out in the middle of nowhere. Basically the only real thing it has going for it over Las Vegas is the low housing cost. But, again, not much there for us to do.

THE WATER ISSUE.

We were married in LV 28 years ago. Have gone 2-6x/yr since.
We have been planning to move to LV for years.
(for most of the reasons you mention)
June 2020 went right after LV opened back up, rented a car & drove all over the city. Summerlin is pricey but ticked all our boxes (mostly, close the golfing DH wanted).

But over the last couple years we have become VERY concerned about access to water. Lake Mead is nearly depleted.
We don't want to sink several hundred grand into a home & find it worthless in 10 or 20 years

It makes me sad. Nowhere else ticks all the boxes as well as LV does.
But that is TOO big an issue to ignore.

Yeah, considered WA--WAY too expensive.
Also Albuquerque. Have never visited--why do you think there is nothing to do? It's a sizable city with a bustling arts scene & tons of outdoor activities.
Curious what activities attract you.
 
I live in centennial hills, 89131 zip, since we moved here in 2005 from Wisconsin. Zip 89131 was brand new, nothing up here but now there is almost too much of everything..traffic, shopping. You mentioned healthcare….I have cancer and my husband COPD. We have had same primary care doc, dentist and eye doctor for 16 years. My cancer and hospital stays have been good. We do have PPO insurance so we can go to any doctor we want. If you go to HMO is where you’re going to have some issues with doctors coming and going.
Our house was built in 1998, 1400 sq ft one floor, open rooms, high ceilings and small brick enclosed yard. We get realtors calling us all the time to but our house but no way. It’s perfect for the 2 of us. We are having our bathrooms remodeled to walk in showers only for our convenience in growing older. We do have an exterminator once a month for $40 and lawn and landscape maintenance twice monthly $120. As others said there are perks of no state income tax and property taxes low. But there are other things you can spend that savings on.
So in our neighborhood a house at 1800 sq ft, all totally remodeled, sold for $490k. It’s outrageous!
Centennial Hills was the most northwest area closest to Mt Charleston but now there is Skye Canyon, zip 89166. It’s lovely and building so fast I hardly recognize it from week to week. I would check that out. As for the Strip and Entertainment, well we have outgrown all that. I worked at a Strip Hotel front desk 10 years and I avoid that area these days. Vegas is catering more to the younger generation we were in the 80’s.
Well good luck and hope your dreams come true. Our realtor friend lives in our neighborhood so if you would like his info let me know.
Oh and one more thing…I don’t know how old you are but we were late50’s when we moved here with no health issues. So many times we have been grateful that we bought a nice sized but smaller house with hardly any work and it was ONE STORY. No stairs! And now we need those walk in showers. Never used those massive tubs so out they go! Love it here.
 
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A handful of quick thoughts to share:
1) Desert home landscaping is often very conducive to “lock and leave” travel. You often can’t tell at a glance if you are looking at a second home, a primary home with the owner gone for months, or a primary home with all vehicles stashed in the garage.

2) I highly recommend not going with a 2 level house late in age. Think about what happens when one of you has mobility issues as you age. I was shocked with our current house how minimal the level changes from the garage to the house, it made things easy when my mom used to visit with her walker.

3) Maybe take a quick look out a bit in the Boulder City area. We RV camp nearby in the Lake Mead National Recreational Area, and the town is charming and friendly. Yet still close to LV amenities.

4) While I’d be hard-pressed to truly recommend Mesquite, it’s only 35-minutes or so from St George, UT (my home). And St George has a world-class hospital with other medical groups forming to provide some competition which will be good for us consumers. St George also has Costco and other big-box stores not available in Mesquite. One thing Mesquite does not have is natural gas, so people who want to heat or cook with gas have large propane tanks that need to be filled.

Good luck with your search!

Best regards,
Chris
 
We were married in LV 28 years ago. Have gone 2-6x/yr since.

We got married there 30 years ago. We went frequently in the 1990s but once we had 3 kids that went away.

But over the last couple years we have become VERY concerned about access to water. Lake Mead is nearly depleted.
We don't want to sink several hundred grand into a home & find it worthless in 10 or 20 years

The water issue is a concern. I do feel that the "third straw" puts Las Vegas in good shape compared to other places. I realize that the potential exists that there might not be enough water for even the third straw. But, Las Vegas is an area with 2 million people. I just see no possibility that in the near future (10 to 20 years is near future) that houses will be worthless because LV is uninhabitable. I just don't see that happening. Could water become expensive? Could there be water restrictions beyond the current situation? Sure. But, I just don't see that size city dying in the relevant time period (I'm 68 and DH is 74).




Also Albuquerque. Have never visited--why do you think there is nothing to do? It's a sizable city with a bustling arts scene & tons of outdoor activities.
Curious what activities attract you.

I don't mean there is literally nothing to do. Just nothing to do beyond the ordinary or that particularly appeals to me. I don't really care about the bustling arts scene. And, I don't like outdoor activities. Hence, living in the desert in Las Vegas doesn't bother me.

What activities do attract me? I enjoy dining out at a wide variety of restaurants, both expensive and very much not expensive. ABQ has some dining out, of course, but not the variety I would like to have.

In LV, I always enjoyed the shopping and the occasional show.

DH and I used to play duplicate bridge a lot (pre-kids) and particularly enjoyed tournaments in, wait for it, Las Vegas. ABQ does have a bridge club and the occasional tournament but there is just far more of this in Las Vegas.

Most of my other activities I enjoy can be done anywhere. I enjoy playing video games and enjoy a specialized genealogy activity (identifying unknown parents or grandparents through the use of DNA).

So, sure ABQ would let me pursue the activities I could do anywhere. I could play bridge there. I could go restaurants. But, there would be no more activities for me there than I have right now in Texas. In fact, less since I would be going from a metropolitan area of over 7 million people to one with under a million. The biggest draw of ABQ is the lower cost of housing.

(Oh -- when I was researching ABQ people are very worried about water there also).

I live in centennial hills, 89131 zip, since we moved here in 2005 from Wisconsin. Zip 89131 was brand new, nothing up here but now there is almost too much of everything..traffic, shopping. You mentioned healthcare….I have cancer and my husband COPD. We have had same primary care doc, dentist and eye doctor for 16 years. My cancer and hospital stays have been good. We do have PPO insurance so we can go to any doctor we want. If you go to HMO is where you’re going to have some issues with doctors coming and going.

Thanks, this is helpful. Centennial Hills and Skye Canyon are both on my short list of places to check out. We are on traditional Medicare so we can see any doctor who takes Medicare. My understanding is that some people have trouble finding good primary care doctors where you can quickly get an appointment so many go the concierge route which we are prepared to do if necessary.

Oh and one more thing…I don’t know how old you are but we were late50’s when we moved here with no health issues. So many times we have been grateful that we bought a nice sized but smaller house with hardly any work and it was ONE STORY. No stairs! And now we need those walk in showers. Never used those massive tubs so out they go! Love it here.

2) I highly recommend not going with a 2 level house late in age. Think about what happens when one of you has mobility issues as you age. I was shocked with our current house how minimal the level changes from the garage to the house, it made things easy when my mom used to visit with her walker.

The w story thing is one of those "it depends" things. DH really had 2 criteria when we moved into our current house. One story and no pool. Well, he gave in on the pool since almost all of the houses where we were looking had pools. I do love looking at our pool (more so than actually using it), but it is a lot of upkeep and we want to minimize upkeep as we get older. So he is very insistent now on no pool.

However, he has become less firm on the one story thing. Our last 2 houses have been one story and we do enjoy one story living. We will certainly look hard for an acceptable house that is one story. Most of the houses in our price range (maybe 85% of them) are 2 stories. Now, that does leave 15% that are one stories. However, my perception from the listings is that the one story houses tend to be older and tend to be on worse condition. Also many of the one story floor plans are just, well, bizarre. I don't really understand it. I haven't seen this anywhere except LV. Just really odd, non-functional floor plans and that is very common in one story houses.

So, yes, we really want a one story. But it isn't a complete deal breaker.

I have a friend with a large 2 story house. Her mother lives with her upstairs so they bought a stair lift. I've been over there many times and seen it operate and it really does work well. My friend is my age and is totally mobile herself, but she says she finds the stair lift very helpful in doing things like carrying something upstairs. She puts the idea on the chair and just sends it up. So, I think DH and I would consider a 2 story if it was conducive to a stair lift.

On one thing that is so odd to me about LV 2 story houses. The vast majority of them that I've seen listed have balconies. I've lived in lots of 2 story houses and none have balconies. I don't want a balcony because of 2 reasons: (1) security and (2) I would never open it because I would worry about my cats getting out. I guess I could just close it off, make it as secure as possible and pretend it doesn't exist....

One thing Mesquite does not have is natural gas, so people who want to heat or cook with gas have large propane tanks that need to be filled.

That is actually a plus. In our existing house we replaced all of our gas appliances with non-gas. We only use gas for our pool heater.

Thanks for the info on Mesquite. I might look at it if we don't find what we want in Las Vegas.
 
Cascade Master Planned Community

Does anyone know anything about the Cadence Master Planned Community? It was suggested to me elsewhere. It seems to be close to Tuscany which was also suggested here.

I did some research on Tuscany and read that it was apparently constructed near an old landfill. In fact, I think that I read that the golf course is actually on the old landfill. So many people object to Tuscany for safety reasons. Also, that there is sometimes an odor from, I think, a water treatment plant.

Anyway, Cadence is close to Tuscany. Does anyone know anything about it? Also does it have the same close to landfill problem? Is any of this a problem or was the information I read bad info?

Edit: Well, this doesn't sound good and I think would take this off the list.

https://ndep.nv.gov/uploads/env-sitecleanup-active-bmi-docs/ndep-cadence-ec-fact-sheet.pdf

Edit: Could someone change my title? I meant Cadence not Casca
 
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We are seriously considering moving to Las Vegas. I've done a lot of research on this but would appreciate any feedback from people in the area...


Other places we seriously considered:

Vancouver, WA...

Albuquerque/Rio Rancho, NM...


I don't have any idea to suggest, despite having visited the above places. I did not stay beyond a couple of nights to know about the plusses and minuses.

But I could not help noticing that you have moved a few times since joining the forum. You certainly have more stamina than we have. We have been in our home for 33 years and I have long given up moving elsewhere.

I did entertain the thought of trying something different when I was first contemplating retirement about 15 years ago, but just the thought of moving now wears me out. We bought our 2nd home 17 years ago, and although it's only a 2.5-hour drive away, I cannot see myself going through the work of setting up another household again.

Darn, I feel so old and tired.
 
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I've looked at this and not worried about [water] unduly. I think Las Vegas is probably in better shape than a lot of other Western areas.

I don't think you'll be able to count on the water situation remaining as is, as states begin to deal with water on a statewide, if not regional, basis. (New infrastructure = taxes; no new infrastructure = restrictions) One area may not remain buffered from other areas' shortages. On the other hand, LV is the money driver for Nevada, so water for it may be prioritized and maintained.
 
But I could not help noticing that you have moved a few times since joining the forum. You certainly have more stamina than we have. We have been in our home for 33 years and I have long given up moving elsewhere.

Mostly it was circumstances changing although there was one outright mistake.

When DH retired and I semi-retired in 2010, selling our existing house was an outright requirement. It was almost 4500 SF, on almost 3 acres, had a guest house, pool, and two detached double garages. When we moved into the house we had 6 people living in the house. By the time we sold it, we were down to 4 and knew we were only a year or so away from 3 (kid going away to school) and a few years (daughter in high school) from being down to us.

We didn't need that size house any more, it was way too large and expensive. We needed to sell it. However, we did make a big error.

Before selling it (thinking selling would be easy), we bought another house much smaller that we planned to remodel. It was on an acre. At the time we had 5 dogs and a few cats and needed land to accommodate the large dogs and that would allow that many pets.

So - two problems came up. It turned out to be hard to sell the big house as we listed it just as houses in this area became hard to sell (we ended up selling in 2011). So it took a long time to sell.

In the meantime we realized that remodeling the house we had bought was going to be impossible (i.e. very, very expensive) and it would better to just build new. So we started planning for that.

While we were waiting to sell the first house and planning a design for building a new house on the land we owned, we realized that building was going to be super expensive and we could buy a better house that was less than 10 years old for the same money. So we decided to sell that property also and to buy an existing house (which we did in 2012). Being the house to remodel was a clear error. We should have looked into the cost of remodeling it before we bought it. We made assumption that were wrong.

When we bought the house in 2012, we were still severely constrained in where we could live because of the 5 large dogs (the indoor cats weren't an issue). We had to buy a house on property that would allow that. So we bought a house on 1 acre that would allow it.

We lived in that house 6 years. It was a very nice house. When we moved in, there were 4 of us living there. When we sold it there was 2 of us there. By the time we sold it the house was bigger than we needed. But, that wasn't the main reason for moving.

Basically, by then our elderly dogs had mostly passed on and we were down to 2 dogs so we could live in a regular subdivision. While I liked that house, I hated the location. We were 20 minutes from the closest grocery store and I hated all the driving. We wanted to be closer to amenities.

So - yes - we've sold 3 houses in the last 3 years. Two of them (House 1 and House 3) met our needs at the time but our needs change. House 2 was just a huge error.

I don't really see this house as a huge error. When we moved to this area my mother was still alive and had been happily living independently as a 93 year old only a few weeks earlier. I didn't expect her to die less than 2 months later. I was glad to be able to move closer to her. But, things change. I guess I do feel that if things change then moving is a real option.
 
I have lived in 5 states and it’s been a adventure. You learn things about yourself when you start your life anew. When I moved to Reno I interviewed by phone and had never seen this part of the country. I was newly divorced and my kids were launched. It was scary but the best thing I ever did and that’s how I found my favorite place to live. I don’t think we are ever sorry for trying new things but rather regret what we don’t do.
 
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