EvrClrx311
Full time employment: Posting here.
- Joined
- Feb 8, 2012
- Messages
- 648
On May 16th, 2012
http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/stocks-the-next-decade-61422.html#post1195163
(wouldn't let me reply to it... it's too old
)
Four and a half years later and we've seen at 64.3% return in the S&P500, right in line with the conclusion made in the post from the historical patterns observed. I took a very mechanical approach to this observation... trying not to guess at what short term factors were at work, but instead to focus on the longer term movements.
At the time most (myself included) were questioning the run on the market from it's lows just a few years prior, many were moving to more conservative investments (or staying there if they never got back into stocks after the scare). The general consensus was that volatility and loses were in the forecast for the middle of this decade - as most still felt the pain from the Great Recession. Longer term trends seems to point to the opposite, which was my purpose in looking at the data observed in the post.
S&P 500 closed at 1,324.80 on May 16th 2012
S&P 500 closed at 2,164.45 yesterday
What's so fascinating about this, is that today some still are cautious about the market, but the general feel it isn't as dire as it was in May of 2012... despite the fact that now we really are above the line on an historical trend perspective. Not too far above it, but still above it.
Perfect example of how human nature conspires to make us seriously misjudge the future of the markets. 2012 was a better time to move into equities, and today is a better time to move out of them... yet it feels opposite - I bet you forget how you felt in 2012... compared to today. (I know I did)
http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/stocks-the-next-decade-61422.html#post1195163
(wouldn't let me reply to it... it's too old
)Four and a half years later and we've seen at 64.3% return in the S&P500, right in line with the conclusion made in the post from the historical patterns observed. I took a very mechanical approach to this observation... trying not to guess at what short term factors were at work, but instead to focus on the longer term movements.
At the time most (myself included) were questioning the run on the market from it's lows just a few years prior, many were moving to more conservative investments (or staying there if they never got back into stocks after the scare). The general consensus was that volatility and loses were in the forecast for the middle of this decade - as most still felt the pain from the Great Recession. Longer term trends seems to point to the opposite, which was my purpose in looking at the data observed in the post.
S&P 500 closed at 1,324.80 on May 16th 2012
S&P 500 closed at 2,164.45 yesterday
What's so fascinating about this, is that today some still are cautious about the market, but the general feel it isn't as dire as it was in May of 2012... despite the fact that now we really are above the line on an historical trend perspective. Not too far above it, but still above it.
Perfect example of how human nature conspires to make us seriously misjudge the future of the markets. 2012 was a better time to move into equities, and today is a better time to move out of them... yet it feels opposite - I bet you forget how you felt in 2012... compared to today. (I know I did)
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