Preparing for Another Hurricane in Good Ol' Fla.

[Dtail]

We are probably on the same ship. Wanna get a drink?

Absolutely. I will PM you by the weekend and we can get together.

 

[RAE]

I was just reading that about 85% of the hurricanes that eventually make landfall in either the SE USA or the Caribbean have their origin near the Cabo Verde Islands, west of the African coast. Well, guess what.........another tropical wave (Invest 94L) formed in that area a few days ago, and is now heading generally west, or slightly north of due west. That would put it somewhere south of Puerto Rico in about 4-5 days. The National Hurricane Center gives it just a 60% chance of developing into a stronger storm as of today, but that could change by tomorrow, as it's supposed to soon enter a part of the Atlantic where conditions for further development are favorable. Here is one link, if you want to follow it's progress.

Disturbance (Invest 94L) - 9/5/2019 18Z - NHC Models on a Google Map

I'm hoping this one decides to make a sharp right turn to the north into the open Atlantic before it gets too far to the west..........but it is definitely one to watch, for Floridians.

 

[Dtail]

I was just reading that about 85% of the hurricanes that eventually make landfall in either the SE USA or the Caribbean have their origin near the Cabo Verde Islands, west of the African coast. Well, guess what.........another tropical wave (Invest 94L) formed in that area a few days ago, and is now heading generally west, or slightly north of due west. That would put it somewhere south of Puerto Rico in about 4-5 days. The National Hurricane Center gives it just a 60% chance of developing into a stronger storm as of today, but that could change by tomorrow, as it's supposed to soon enter a part of the Atlantic where conditions for further development are favorable. Here is one link, if you want to follow it's progress.

Disturbance (Invest 94L) - 9/5/2019 18Z - NHC Models on a Google Map

I'm hoping this one decides to make a sharp right turn to the north into the open Atlantic before it gets too far to the west..........but it is definitely one to watch, for Floridians.

Yup, we are looking at this one closely as a Floridian, plus expected cruise into the Caribbean a week from Sunday.

 

[atmsmshr]

I was just reading that about 85% of the hurricanes that eventually make landfall in either the SE USA or the Caribbean have their origin near the Cabo Verde Islands, west of the African coast. Well, guess what.........another tropical wave (Invest 94L) formed in that area a few days ago, and is now heading generally west, or slightly north of due west. That would put it somewhere south of Puerto Rico in about 4-5 days. The National Hurricane Center gives it just a 60% chance of developing into a stronger storm as of today, but that could change by tomorrow, as it's supposed to soon enter a part of the Atlantic where conditions for further development are favorable. Here is one link, if you want to follow it's progress.

Disturbance (Invest 94L) - 9/5/2019 18Z - NHC Models on a Google Map

I'm hoping this one decides to make a sharp right turn to the north into the open Atlantic before it gets too far to the west..........but it is definitely one to watch, for Floridians.

This one looks low enough to pose a threat to the Gulf states.

 

[JoeWras]

It is looking like the USA is going to be mostly spared. I don't want to lessen the pain specific people are having and make this sound like a non-event. It isn't. (I accidentally did that earlier in this thread.)

In aggregate, the USA is going to get away with minimal damage for this one. No massive events like Katrina, Sandy, Florence, Matthew, Harvey, etc. Also no major destruction in limited areas like Andrew and last year's Michael.

Yet, some specific areas are impacted, some hard. The tornado outbreak in NC yesterday has hit some communities hard. Luckily, they are short track tornadoes. The outer banks haven't been cleared yet, although this kind of trajectory is very common out there for a cat 1 or 2. I suspect they'll pick themselves up and dust off.

Inland in the Peidmont, it is a breezy event with almost beneficial rains and limited power outages. Sometimes storms go that way. Farmers are still concerned about the breeze, it is enough to lay down crops.

Power is out for many near the coast. The good news is there is a massive lineman response ready and some of these guys are working now, and they'll move east as the wind dies down today.

I'll end with this. You know a storm isn't too bad when memes and parodies fill the internet. You may have seen the unending footage of the poor Jeep stuck in the sand near Myrtle Beach. Perhaps the funniest (and clever) thing I saw about that was the parody of the event done by a group of kids. Just brilliant.

 

[ShokWaveRider]

Beautiful morning here, absolutely no wind, that means the mosquitos will be out in force. Sadly they always seem to survive the storms.

 

[steelyman]

We were very lucky here. I’d been expecting an overnight power outage at least but according to my UPS, there were only 3 events overnight. They must have been brief because no appliances not covered by backup needed to be reset.

The temperature is noticeably cooler now and there’s much less humidity.

“Here” is the NC Triangle (Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill).

 

[BeachOrCity]

I have owned and vacationed on Hatteras Island for years. This one looks bad, but not catastrophic. Biggest impact is the road may wash out and ruin some vacations and business income for many.

The biggest impact is normally "sound side flooding" which is the completely freakish thing that happens there where basically (if the winds are right) pushes most of the Pamlico sound up onto the island. Way back a neighbors oceanfront pool ended up with a 3' diameter mooring ball in the middle of it!

Anyway, it looks like the winds are projected not to create that kind of flooding at a huge level, so we will know by late today for sure that most people dodged a bullet. Some will get flooded for sure, but it hopefully won't be island wide and catastrophic.

If you are an beautiful empty beach lover, you should visit Hatteras Island. 70% of the shoreline is parkland, and even where it is not, you can set up 4th of July weekend and the closest people to you are 100 feet away.... In sept and oct, it feels like just you and a few friends own the whole beach.

No place like it!

 

[Moemg]

Beautiful morning here, absolutely no wind, that means the mosquitos will be out in force. Sadly they always seem to survive the storms.

I have not seen a mosquito since I left New Jersey .

 

[BeachOrCity]

I have owned and vacationed on Hatteras Island for years. This one looks bad, but not catastrophic. Biggest impact is the road may wash out and ruin some vacations and business income for many.

The biggest impact is normally "sound side flooding" which is the completely freakish thing that happens there where basically (if the winds are right) pushes most of the Pamlico sound up onto the island. Way back a neighbors oceanfront pool ended up with a 3' diameter mooring ball in the middle of it!

Anyway, it looks like the winds are projected not to create that kind of flooding at a huge level, so we will know by late today for sure that most people dodged a bullet. Some will get flooded for sure, but it hopefully won't be island wide and catastrophic.

If you are an beautiful empty beach lover, you should visit Hatteras Island. 70% of the shoreline is parkland, and even where it is not, you can set up 4th of July weekend and the closest people to you are 100 feet away.... In sept and oct, it feels like just you and a few friends own the whole beach.

No place like it!

I spoke too soon....the sound side flooding is indeed starting....

 

[Dtail]

I have not seen a mosquito since I left New Jersey .

We get them from time to time, so I guess being away from the coastline and lakes near the backyard affects this scenario.

 

[ShokWaveRider]

Please do not forget to send a little cash to those poor folks in the Bahamas. We did this morning. We sent ours to: https://www.nabmiami.org/

Used Paypal it was very easy as they did not ask for CC info like a lot of others we tried. This allowed one time donations and no personal questions other than PP Info. We could do it anonymously too.

 

[JoeWras]

If you are an beautiful empty beach lover, you should visit Hatteras Island. 70% of the shoreline is parkland, and even where it is not, you can set up 4th of July weekend and the closest people to you are 100 feet away.... In sept and oct, it feels like just you and a few friends own the whole beach.
No place like it!

Shhh! Don't give up our secret!!!!

I spoke too soon....the sound side flooding is indeed starting....

Yes, the sound side stuff always causes problems. The reason is that the Pamlico is huge, and if the wind pushes it, it has no place to go except a few inlet/outlets. That's happening now, and Ocracoke is the choke point. A decade ago it was Hatteras island. New inlets were cut, which were eventually filled in by the state.

This is not new, despite the need to politicize everything and make it sound so. The ribbons of sand are extremely fragile and have had inlets and outlets carved out constantly through the centuries. Our development is now in the way.

 

[atmsmshr]

Please do not forget to send a little cash to those poor folks in the Bahamas. We did this morning. We sent ours to: https://www.nabmiami.org/

Used Paypal it was very easy as they did not ask for CC info like a lot of others we tried. This allowed one time donations and no personal questions other than PP Info. We could do it anonymously too.

+1

 

[eroscott]

Please do not forget to send a little cash to those poor folks in the Bahamas. We did this morning. We sent ours to: https://www.nabmiami.org/

Used Paypal it was very easy as they did not ask for CC info like a lot of others we tried. This allowed one time donations and no personal questions other than PP Info. We could do it anonymously too.

The GlobalGiving organization below my wife and I have donated to several times for different reasons. They have great scores (see Charity Navigator) and transparency which I appreciate. I am also leary about in a lot of charity organizations (why I check charity review sites). See the yellow highlights below (which I did). One thing about them is they vet organizations on the ground. I've had follow up reports like they have mentioned below (yellow highlights).

https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/hurricane-dorian-relief-fund
From Global Giving desc
>>>
All donations to the Hurricane Dorian Relief Fund will support trusted nonprofits who have been verified by GlobalGiving. These partners are often those who live and work in the communities, are best equipped to respond, yet are frequently underfunded. Donating towards these community-led organizations ensures your contributions are maximized and helping those most vulnerable.

Providing transparency and accountability are important to GlobalGiving. By making a donation to the fund today, you will receive regular email updates on the progress of relief efforts and the impact of your donation.
<<<

Image below from this URL:
https://www.charitynavigator.org/index.cfm?bay=search.summary&orgid=11648

 

[ShokWaveRider]

Just came back from the Beach, looks like nothing ever happened. It was as normal, in fact a little more people than usual, which typically are not crowded as the best of times. I also drove around the general areas that were featured on the Weather Channel and they looked fine, no real debris, no standing street water. Maybe ServPro has already come and gone... "Like it never Even Happened"

 

[RAE]

Just came back from the Beach, looks like nothing ever happened. It was as normal, in fact a little more people than usual, which typically are not crowded as the best of times. I also drove around the general areas that were featured on the Weather Channel and they looked fine, no real debris, no standing street water. Maybe ServPro has already come and gone... "Like it never Even Happened"

That's great, but be sure to count your blessings, as there's still at least 6 weeks left in the hurricane season. After seeing what Dorian did to the northern Bahamas, I've been checking every tropical wave out in the Atlantic to see what the experts say about future development potential. If Dorian would have been able to get about 80 miles closer to the Florida coast, and then travel northward up the coast (as some models thought it might, just a few days before it arrived), the devastation would have been like nothing Florida has ever seen.

 

[JoeWras]

Looks like the area I've been participating in hurricane relief from last year got a bit of a hit again with this storm. Not as bad, but some damage.

We don't do work on Ocracoke, but we do work across the bay from there on the mainland side. They had big storm surge too. I'm concerned for one particular family who are multi-generational fishermen/women.

Most of the outer banks have houses on stilts. Ocracoke is an older village with a lot of older homes not built up. Hence, the flood damage. Oh, and the dirty secret a of a lot of beach homes is even though they are built up, people build "wash out rooms" under the stilt area. It is supposed to be just for stuff like beach chair storage. Over time, floods are forgotten and man caves are built down there, etc. Not a good idea.

 

[Badger]

That's great, but be sure to count your blessings, as there's still at least 6 weeks left in the hurricane season. After seeing what Dorian did to the northern Bahamas, I've been checking every tropical wave out in the Atlantic to see what the experts say about future development potential. If Dorian would have been able to get about 80 miles closer to the Florida coast, and then travel northward up the coast (as some models thought it might, just a few days before it arrived), the devastation would have been like nothing Florida has ever seen.

Hurricane season still has almost 3 months to go. It goes until the end of November. The water is still warm enough.


Cheers!

 

[RAE]

Hurricane season still has almost 3 months to go. It goes until the end of November. The water is still warm enough.
Cheers!

True, but historically the vast majority of hurricanes occur in August, September, and October.

 

[RAE]

Most of the outer banks have houses on stilts. Ocracoke is an older village with a lot of older homes not built up. Hence, the flood damage. Oh, and the dirty secret a of a lot of beach homes is even though they are built up, people build "wash out rooms" under the stilt area. It is supposed to be just for stuff like beach chair storage. Over time, floods are forgotten and man caves are built down there, etc. Not a good idea.

Yes, this is pretty common wherever people have stilt homes, including parts of Florida (Gulf Coast), and coastal Texas also. As you say, if a flood doesn't occur for several years, people start thinking they can just improve their lower area to make it part of their living space. When hurricane Harvey hit Rockport, TX, a few years ago, the storm surge off of Copano Bay washed out many such lower living spaces and their contents.

 

[Moemg]

It would be pretty hard to put more than a garage in the space below elevated houses since all utilities also have to be elevated .Our electric , air conditioning and water pipes are all suspended from the garage ceiling .

 

[ShokWaveRider]

It would be pretty hard to put more than a garage in the space below elevated houses since all utilities also have to be elevated .Our electric , air conditioning and water pipes are all suspended from the garage ceiling .

All our utilities are below ground or in the slab. Gas is Propane and buried about 6" below grade, the tank in also in the ground. Electric and water after the meter is all below grade. Except for AC of course, that depends where the air handler is.

 

[JoeWras]

It would be pretty hard to put more than a garage in the space below elevated houses since all utilities also have to be elevated .Our electric , air conditioning and water pipes are all suspended from the garage ceiling .

Man caves are typical. Improve what was a storage or garage area by putting a window air conditioner in the wall. Maybe string some illegal electric, or just extension cords.

But yeah, typically no toilet or kitchens.

I have a lot of sympathy for what people are going through. Heck, I'm volunteering for hurricane relief over this last year. But I get a bit cranky when people complain about their wash out rooms being damaged. And no, we don't fix those in relief operations.

 

[NW-Bound]

I don't live in hurricane land, but washout rooms should be regarded as disposable. Hello?