Reran my numbers, running out of $$??

[tominboise]

I'm 56 as well. Plan to collect SS at age 70 as well. At that time, SS will cover majority of our expenses as well.

What % are you using for an average SS COLA increase? Currently I'm only using 1.25%. Probably should be higher.

SS COLA's are tied to the annual increase of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). Here is a table of all the COLA's since 1975

https://www.ssa.gov/cola/#:~:text=It%20is%20based%20on%20the,there%20can%20be%20no%20COLA.

 

[G-Man]

Interesting question. I'm assuming no increase , but should probably assume more, but then again any SS COLA increase will be negated by proportional increase in my expenses.

Increases in expenses. As I get older, my spending decreases. The way I'm looking about expenses is based on the following:

Go-Go Years Spending - up to age 72
Slow-Go Years Spending - 73 - 85
No-Go Years Spending - 85 - Death

 

[FREE866]

Increases in expenses. As I get older, my spending decreases. The way I'm looking about expenses is based on the following:

Go-Go Years Spending - up to age 72
Slow-Go Years Spending - 73 - 85
No-Go Years Spending - 85 - Death

Yeah, I've heard that too. I'm just not a big spender, never was.

 

[G-Man]

SS COLA's are tied to the annual increase of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). Here is a table of all the COLA's since 1975

https://www.ssa.gov/cola/#:~:text=It%20is%20based%20on%20the,there%20can%20be%20no%20COLA.

I heard some financial advisors suggest that you use 2.6% based on the Annual SS Trustee Report.

 

[Al18]

Do you and your wife think you’ll be alive and be mentally aware at 94/92?

Plug your numbers into this calculator and keep an eye on that death wedge in grey https://engaging-data.com/will-money-last-retire-early/ I don’t mean to sound grim, but the chart puts things into perspective.

In other words, enjoy your retirement now, and don’t worry about the things you can’t control.

 

[Koolau]

If that's the case most if not all of us are going to have issues. And running out at 94/92 is about as soft a landing as imaginable in that you have 30+ years to make some adjustments.

This is my thinking as well. With 30 years time line, small cut backs at strategic times pay big dividends later on.

Now that my time line is 24 years (heh, heh, going for age 99!) things get easier and easier. At the same time, I'm spending less and less. Go figure!

 

[tominboise]

Do you and your wife think you’ll be alive and be mentally aware at 94/92?

Plug your numbers into this calculator and keep an eye on that death wedge in grey https://engaging-data.com/will-money-last-retire-early/ I don’t mean to sound grim, but the chart puts things into perspective.

In other words, enjoy your retirement now, and don’t worry about the things you can’t control.

Yeah, I did that and being realistic I'd expect to pass on between 85-90 and my wife at 90-95, but of course, it could happen sooner, or later, but never, not. But I prefer to keep an optimistic outlook and live life fully now and for as long as I can....

 

[NW-Bound]

I have a complicated spreadsheet (don't we all?)...

No, I never have a spreadsheet. And FIRECalc is the only retirement calculator I ever ran. And I don't care about FIRECalc anymore.

The only tool I use anymore is Quicken. Every so often, I look at what it tells me my trailing 12-month income and expenses are. The latter is less than the former, and that's all I care to know.

And I don't count capital gains in the income, whether the gains are realized or not.

 

[old medic]

No, I never have a spreadsheet. And FIRECalc is the only retirement calculator I ever ran.

One of these days I'm going to read up on what a "speadsheet" is LOL...
I still play with FC since the wife is still working. We don't really worry about Running Out or WR as we both will have pensions and SS... Of course if "THEY" run out of money.. Well .... Our estimated future investments/ savings should easily cover basic living expenses for 10-12 years.

 

[NW-Bound]

Well, I actually do have some spreadsheets, but not one that goes a couple of decades into the future.

I make simple ones to plan for taxes and Roth conversions. But for planning way into the future, it requires that I put down some predictions of inflation and market return. That's too tough.

Yes, I do think of bad economic conditions, but I don't need a spreadsheet for that. I only look at Quicken to see what my essential expenses are in comparison to SS and dividends and interests.

 

[Jackietime]

Does Firecalc account for cost-of-living increases in social security each year?

 

[COcheesehead]

Does Firecalc account for cost-of-living increases in social security each year?

FICalc allows you to increase any income stream by inflation.
https://ficalc.app/

 

[audreyh1]

Does Firecalc account for cost-of-living increases in social security each year?

I imagine so since they take inflation into account for everything else and I believe that they make you specify whether your pension is COLA.

 

[marko]

Well, I actually do have some spreadsheets, but not one that goes a couple of decades into the future.

My RE/investment spreadsheet(s) suffer greatly from mission creep. Started out so innocently with one tab and about 40 rows and 5 columns.

One now has over 15 tabs, tracks back 18 years and goes down to 900+ rows; all of them interconnected and some connected to other spreadsheets and workbooks. Ugh! Delete one cell and I might upset 400 other cells with a #NA!

On the positive side, I can tell you down to the .xx what my electric bill and KWh usage was in June of 2007, and how it compares to this past June, average for the year and average for that summer compared to this past summer !! (in case anyone ever wants to know, because, y'know, that's important stuff)

 

[FLSUnFIRE]

My RE/investment spreadsheet(s) suffer greatly from mission creep. Started out so innocently with one tab and about 40 rows and 5 columns.

One now has over 15 tabs, tracks back 18 years and goes down to 900+ rows; all of them interconnected and some connected to other spreadsheets and workbooks. Ugh! Delete one cell and I might upset 400 other cells with a #NA!

On the positive side, I can tell you down to the .xx what my electric bill and KWh usage was in June of 2007, and how it compares to this past June, average for the year and average for that summer compared to this past summer !! (in case anyone ever wants to know, because, y'know, that's important stuff)

My June 2007 electric bill was $68.44. no idea how much power I used though. I don't have one workbook though as my tracking has evolved in both form, assumptions, and categories over the years and life stages. I have expenses to 1998 and balance sheet to 1996. It's as much fun as anything but I knew out of college that if I didn't want to work forever, I needed to know how much I spend.

 

[NW-Bound]

Planning is hard, because you can't foresee so many things that can hit you out of the blue.

When it comes to spending, I am happy to be underspending, aka LBYM, so that I have a lot of headroom.

My tracking of expenses via Quicken is just to stay aware of status quo.

All my life, I abide by this quote:

“Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen and six, result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.” -- Charles Dickens

And if one spends only 10 pounds out of the 20 pounds income, is it a bad thing? Heh heh heh...

 

[aja8888]

My RE/investment spreadsheet(s) suffer greatly from mission creep. Started out so innocently with one tab and about 40 rows and 5 columns.

One now has over 15 tabs, tracks back 18 years and goes down to 900+ rows; all of them interconnected and some connected to other spreadsheets and workbooks. Ugh! Delete one cell and I might upset 400 other cells with a #NA!

On the positive side, I can tell you down to the .xx what my electric bill and KWh usage was in June of 2007, and how it compares to this past June, average for the year and average for that summer compared to this past summer !! (in case anyone ever wants to know, because, y'know, that's important stuff)

Bazaar stuff. I can't even tell you where I was in 2007, let alone any detail about spending, although I could look on my copy of my tax return, if I still have it. These days, I only care about what I spend on an annual basis and I figure that up each December off of one checking account and two credit cards.

Close enough!

 

[daylatedollarshort]

Pensions, SS and TIPS interest (the last two adjust with inflation) cover all our current annual expenses. The mortgage interest will decrease every year and we still have some projects that should lower our current expenses by quite a bit yet, so we feel have done what we can to to cover our retirement expenses for as long as we live no matter what happens with stocks, interest rates or inflation. If we need LTC we have the house in a HCOL area, the TIPS principal and our other investments. We've started to gift money now to our kids.

 

[youbet]

Any method using straight line, constant values isn’t going to be accurate. Use FireCalc or the like.

This. ^^^^^

I don't do spreadsheets anymore. But a while back I looked at some Excel files on a CD I had tossed in a drawer many years ago. I had built scenarios where I assumed various constant spending, inflation and investment returns over the years. Hee.... hee..... Nothing even close to how things have actually worked out over the first 18 years of FIRE.

Getting used to the fact that life's variables will likely result in a retiree's financial outcome being anything other than within a very broad range is difficult for folks, including me. But that's the way it is.

 

[youbet]

Does Firecalc account for cost-of-living increases in social security each year?

Yes

 

[Montecfo]

Interesting question. I'm assuming no increase , but should probably assume more, but then again any SS COLA increase will be negated by proportional increase in my expenses.

If you simply assume a real rate of return for investments over the planning horizon, then you do not need to worry about COLAs or expense growth.

Sure, it is "less accurate" but none of your more granular assumptions are likely to be close given the long time periods involved.

KISS method.

 

[Andre1969]

My June 2007 electric bill was $68.44. no idea how much power I used though. I don't have one workbook though as my tracking has evolved in both form, assumptions, and categories over the years and life stages. I have expenses to 1998 and balance sheet to 1996. It's as much fun as anything but I knew out of college that if I didn't want to work forever, I needed to know how much I spend.

LOL, glad to see I'm not the only one.

Here's the stats for my June 19, 2007 electric bill:
1261 kWh used for the period.
32 days in the billing period.
38.44 kWh per day average use.
41.0 kWh running daily average, dating back to 10/31/03, which was when I had that house's electric put into my name.
$156.86 for the bill.
71 degree average temp for the 5/18 to 6/19 period.
12.75 cents per kWh for that period.
And the following note: "acutal*, amount with deferral is $184.88. Electric rates shot up 6/1/07 by 50%"

*note: posting it as I typed it, transposition error and everything

 

[FLSUnFIRE]

LOL, glad to see I'm not the only one.

Here's the stats for my June 19, 2007 electric bill:
1261 kWh used for the period.
32 days in the billing period.
38.44 kWh per day average use.
41.0 kWh running daily average, dating back to 10/31/03, which was when I had that house's electric put into my name.
$156.86 for the bill.
71 degree average temp for the 5/18 to 6/19 period.
12.75 cents per kWh for that period.
And the following note: "acutal*, amount with deferral is $184.88. Electric rates shot up 6/1/07 by 50%"

*note: posting it as I typed it, transposition error and everything

Now I don't feel so anal... I eventually stopped saving all my paper invoices so no reconstruction. Now most statements are digital so in the future I could go back to now. My focus at the time, and now, is to know what I spend so I don't have to work anymore than necessary so the actual expense is the critical factor to capture.

 

[11522914]

No, I never have a spreadsheet. And FIRECalc is the only retirement calculator I ever ran. And I don't care about FIRECalc anymore.



The only tool I use anymore is Quicken. Every so often, I look at what it tells me my trailing 12-month income and expenses are. The latter is less than the former, and that's all I care to know.



And I don't count capital gains in the income, whether the gains are realized or not.

I've been using Quicken since 1994. I love Quicken and its reports.

One thing I'm having trouble with since I currently only have CDs, mm and individual corporate bonds is how Quicken calculates fair value.

My non-callable 5 year CDs are valued at 103.5 now. I'm never selling them so this really skews my net worth reports. I don't like that.

Trying to figure out a way to track it.

Could just leave at 100% and not download updates but then it won't match my brokerage account. My first world problems [emoji16]

 

[audreyh1]

If your CDs are worth that now, that IS correctly valuing your net worth. Leave it alone.