Russia's 'Internal Feud' Boiling Over

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Birdie Num Nums

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Late today, Friday, June 23, American time, things in Russia (and Ukraine) have changed dramatically. Some refer to it as an "internal feud" in Russia that is boiling over and might result in a coup -- with the Wagner Group of mercenaries reportedly marching toward Moscow.

Richard Engel, NBC News chief foreign correspondent, explains the backstory of the conflict between Russia's military generals and Yevgeny Prigozhin, known as "Putin's chef," leader of the Wagner Group mercenary force, as Russian authorities appear to be cracking down on Pirgozhin, and Pirgozhin appears to be threatening an armed assertion of power.
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See Engel's history of what led up to tonight's events: https://youtu.be/ji4z0KA0AAQ
 
I'm following current developments on Twitter, as TV doesn't seem to be up to the task at the moment. Here are a few updates (take them with a grain of salt unless verified):

  • TikTok Kadyrov's Akhmat 'special forces' battalion has been tasked to stop Prigozhin from reaching Moscow.
  • They plan to blow up bridges leading to Moscow.
  • ....:popcorn:
 
Careful what you wish for. An army of convicted murderers doesn't sound much better than Putin.
 
I've been following this closely (Slava Ukraine!), and I'll sum up some salient points I've gleaned:

Prigozhin posted videos he claimed showed that the Wagner group was attacked by the Russian army, but analysis of those videos showed no bodies and it may have been staged. Prigozhin also says he's marching his forces on Moscow, not to take over the government, but to confront the generals, but strangely enough there has been no evidence that he's actually doing so. Some think he might actually be heading for the Ministry of Defense in Rostov-on-Don, where he may be able to intimidate the generals and possibly seize the largest Russian arsenal of conventional weapons.

Pure speculation: rather than trying to stage a coup, I think Prigozhin's current antics are to put pressure on Putin to put him in charge of the war, if not the military, as he's been complaining that the army is not giving him the ammunition and equipment he needs to fight successfully. But Putin is probably more afraid of Prigozhin than anyone else; he's Putin's only competition since he's the only effective leader and halfway savvy propagandist (which explains why he came up in the private sector rather than the government; Putin would have seen someone as bold as Prigozhin under him as a threat and assassinated him or kept him powerless). Prigozhin may only have designs on the army, but if he is planning a coup, appearing blindly loyal and nationalistic in order to be put in charge of the army is the best way to get in a position to depose Putin.
 
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punkinhead said:
Careful what you wish for. An army of convicted murderers doesn't sound much better than Putin.
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I was thinking the same thing. Doesn’t seem like a group that will just walk away from Ukraine. Quite the opposite.
 
The Cosmic Avenger said:
I've been following this closely (Slava Ukraine!), and I'll sum up some salient points I've gleaned:

Prigozhin posted videos he claimed showed that the Wagner group was attacked by the Russian army, but analysis of those videos showed no bodies and it may have been staged. Prigozhin also says he's marching his forces on Moscow, not to take over the government, but to confront the generals, but strangely enough there has been no evidence that he's actually doing so. Some think he might actually be heading for the Ministry of Defense in Rostov-on-Don, where he may be able to intimidate the generals and possibly seize the largest Russian arsenal of conventional weapons.

Pure speculation: rather than trying to stage a coup, I think Prigozhin's current antics are to put pressure on Putin to put him in charge of the war, if not the military, as he's been complaining that the army is not giving him the ammunition and equipment he needs to fight successfully. But Putin is probably more afraid of Prigozhin than anyone else; he's Putin's only competition since he's the only effective leader and halfway savvy propagandist (which explains why he came up in the private sector rather than the government). Prigozhin may only have designs on the army, but if he is planning a coup, appearing blindly loyal and nationalistic in order to be put in charge of the army is the best way to get in a position to depose Putin.
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Nice assessment! I find it interesting that in this age of information, we have no idea of who is winning or losing in debacle. Claims of gained ground are countered by opposite claims.

Is Prigozhin just posturing? Playing a role with Putin's approval? Looking for US cash for support? Saw a video of tanks surrounding a building in Moscow...looked ominous until a street sweeping guy is seen quietly brooming the sidewalk.
 
I keep thinking this could be a contrived situation created to lure the Ukrainian military leadership into a trap. I've yet to see any credible reports of actual fighting between the Russian military and Wagner troops.
 
This is like Hitler vs. Stalin. So, it turns out that both parties inflict a lot of pain in the region and it spreads across the world. As the conflict grows more parties have to enter the fray.
 
I wish the Ukrainian army had the weapons to reach Russian warships located in Crimea. Sinking several ships could either lead to an end to the conflict or provoke Russia even more, although I'd bet on the former.
 
REWahoo said:
I keep thinking this could be a contrived situation created to lure the Ukrainian military leadership into a trap. I've yet to see any credible reports of actual fighting between the Russian military and Wagner troops.
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Reuters is reporting that Russian helicopters are firing on Wagner troops who are leaving Rostov heading towards Moscow.
 
Wow. What a story to wake up to.

When I saw the thread title I got to thinking about how quickly the Berlin wall fell. There was some confusion about who said what, then all of a sudden the border guards disappeared and people started climbing, then tearing down, the wall.
 
marko said:
Nice assessment! I find it interesting that in this age of information, we have no idea of who is winning or losing in debacle. Claims of gained ground are countered by opposite claims.

Is Prigozhin just posturing? Playing a role with Putin's approval? Looking for US cash for support? Saw a video of tanks surrounding a building in Moscow...looked ominous until a street sweeping guy is seen quietly brooming the sidewalk.
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Thanks, although most of it is not my analysis, but just gleaned from following some friends who do this for a living. :cool:

It's hard to tell what any politican's ultimate motivation is, but for a long time the game in Russia has been to say you have the interests of the motherland at heart, and your plan to do that....just coincidentally gives YOU more power. Putin is a master at that game, and so he's been able to dominate it and keep down/out any other competitive players. But he's had to rely on Prigozhin so much that he couldn't do anything about him, and Prigozhin knows it. The Wagner Group was the only thing keeping the war in Ukraine from being a total defeat, as even with them it's been considered a huge failure for Russia to be kept at bay by a much smaller country. And Prigozhin is a rich, charismatic, bombastic leader, and his private militia is run a bit like a cult, so if they take him out, most of the Wagner Group would at best become freelance mercenaries, or at worst turn on Putin.

So I think Prigozhin is looking to move up, the question is, how far? Since it's Russia, probably as far as he can without being executed.
 
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Reports Putin has left. Hundreds of private jets are airborne without destinations.
 
Gotta bet China is watching the situation closely. And as mentioned above be careful what you wish for, Prigozhin's finger on the nuclear button isn't exactly a comforting thought. If anyone ever looked the part of a Bond villain, it would be Yevgeny Viktorovich Prigozhin.
 
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What a world of endless opportunity. A guy goes from prison to selling hotdogs on the street, to becoming a celebrated chef, to a leader of a private military army, and now a leader of a coup.
 
Pretty sure this guy who leads the Wagner Group of Mercenaries wants to topple down Putin's regime, and he will put up a fight to the end. He's already said his forces will go to Moscow.
 
punkinhead said:
Reuters is reporting that Russian helicopters are firing on Wagner troops who are leaving Rostov heading towards Moscow.
Click to expand...

REWahoo said:
I keep thinking this could be a contrived situation created to lure the Ukrainian military leadership into a trap. I've yet to see any credible reports of actual fighting between the Russian military and Wagner troops.
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Hard to believe this is actually happening in the world today.
I have learned late in life, that politics and fake news play an important
roll in swaying public opinion.
I must ask myself, who is reporting this and what is the ulterior motive?
 
At least one news service called it an "armed insurrection" (that's the worst kind) amid reports Putin has fled Moscow by plane.
 
REWahoo said:
I keep thinking this could be a contrived situation created to lure the Ukrainian military leadership into a trap. I've yet to see any credible reports of actual fighting between the Russian military and Wagner troops.
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I had a similar thought. OTOH, real large scale troop movements should be easy to identify and track, so it’s probably easier for intelligence agencies to distinguish between a ruse and a real conflict, and if this were a trap I imagine the agencies would share with Ukraine military.
 
Putin leaving Moscow would make sense. I doubt he’s left Russia. That would be entirely different. On 9/11, they kept Bush up in Air Force 1 for awhile and then off to some other site (forget where). He didn’t go directly back to D.C.
 
REWahoo said:
I keep thinking this could be a contrived situation created to lure the Ukrainian military leadership into a trap. I've yet to see any credible reports of actual fighting between the Russian military and Wagner troops.
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Putin, with a long history in intelligence, is a master propagandist (although he may have met his match in Prigozhin), but his huge ego and the attached insecurities have only grown since he's been in power. I don't think he would allow a plan that made him look weak; if he wanted to feint, he'd come up with a military basis, one that didn't have even the tiniest hint of political weakness.
 
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