Sizing the Housing Bubble

[Sam]

When I die I want my spouse to bury my cremated remains right here in our compost pile, where my true fertilizing benefits can finally be spread far & wide!

Funny.  In Vietnam, death people are usually buried within the family property.  I wonder if I can do it here in Texas.  I guess that would bring my property value down pretty quick, not to mention that of the whole neighborhood.  I can smell the lawsuits now.

Sam

 

[Jay_Gatsby]

When I die I want my spouse to bury my cremated remains right here in our compost pile, where my true fertilizing benefits can finally be spread far & wide!

But you do already spread fertilizer far and wide....on this board no less.

 

[Nords]

I wonder if I can do it here in Texas. I guess that would bring my property value down pretty quick, not to mention that of the whole neighborhood. I can smell the lawsuits now.

There are some things that just don't belong on any seller's disclosure statements. I don't get it... we've seen houses with fine graveyard collections of well-loved pets and somehow that's considered cute, but a few rotting human remains really mess up your sale negotiations.

Besides, a good deep backhoe excavation, a couple layers of lime, and a good drainage field can overcome any ground-penetrating radar.

But you do already spread fertilizer far and wide....on this board no less. 

That's why spouse agreed so readily to my plans... for some reason she thinks she'll be outliving me anyway!

 

[IBWino]

But you do already spread fertilizer far and wide....on this board no less. 

He did say "true fertilizing benefits".

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

You're seeing a rush of people putting their house up for sale before the "good prices" go away. Including a lot of unsaleable crap and whatnot. Hence increasing inventory without a drop in asking prices.

Similarly, I see the cnbc talking heads all happy about the new home starts being high this month after dropping off the last few months. I've noticed it up the street from me where several subdivisions are being built. A bunch of foundations got poured and they're trying to slap the homes together and get them up for sale before the bottom drops out. After all the foundations got poured last month, no new ones at all. The 25 or so acres of weeds they nuked a few months ago to build on has been allowed to go back to weeds. One high end developer (meritage) bought a huge tract near my house...I'm going to say about 50-60 acres. The property owner plowed all his peach trees under and made a very impressive heap of wood chips out of them. Then meritage backed out of the deal, paid the guy for his trees and his trouble, and walked away

Wab showed a chart last week that said my region had the frothiest real estate; i'm on the outskirts of the froth where its really stupid as theres nothing to support the ridiculous prices. This might be the miners canary...

 

[lazygood4nothinbum]

This doesn't sound right.  How can price goes up (albeit by a small %) when inventory has tripled?  Playing with numbers to downplay the severity?

Sam

the rules are different here. it only seems like prices went up if you didn't get a 35% increase last year.

inventory sounds like a lot but we also have population growth of about 30,000 per year expected to continue over the next 30 years in a county that is already at build-out. we are bound by the atlantic to the east and the everglades to the west. to both north and south are counties which are also experiencing an influx of another 30,000 people per county per year.

so our high inventory, while currently at an 11-month supply and likely growing, is still not enough yet to restrict either price increases or construction output. construction on residential units in broward county is up about 70% 2006 from 2005. though numbers in counties on either side of us went down & i would imagine that ours will decrease this year.

buffeting our bubble likely is the investment we still get from europe and central and south america. besides that, while we seemed to exhibit exorbitant rises in value lately, likely fort lauderdale was undervalued for many years. even now we are only half that of san francisco and where's their beach in winter?

 

[justin]

the rules are different here...

...we are bound by the atlantic to the east and the everglades to the west...

I thought it was de River Nile to the west.

"The rules are different this time."

 

[lazygood4nothinbum]

no, it's the river of grass. http://tinyurl.com/fryv7

The stats are also year-over-year increases. If the "peak" of the bubble was in November 2005, then you won't see the decreases in year over year prices till ~ november 2006.

according to the article i quoted the peak was may where we went up 4% 2006 from 2005. i thought i remembered things were still pretty nutz down here though at least until the canes started hitting and then lots of contracts went on hold.

that would be like august/sept so i'll be more interested in seeing those year to year figures before i'm comfortable settling in on the banks on the river denial. in the meanwhile i'll just break out the suntan lotion and my shades.

 

[Sam]

we also have population growth of about 30,000 per year expected to continue over the next 30 years in a county that is already at build-out. we are bound by the atlantic to the east and the everglades to the west. to both north and south are counties which are also experiencing an influx of another 30,000 people per county per year.

30,000/year per county sounds like a lot.  What is it in terms of county population percentage?

What attracts people to that area?  The Atlantic and the Everglades?

Thanks,
Sam

 

[lazygood4nothinbum]

30,000/year per county sounds like a lot.  What is it in terms of county population percentage?

ya, tell me about it. it's insane. i absolutely can't tell month to month how long it takes to drive somewhere. i'm still driving on 1970s time and so i am always late. even here we are now having discussions of water supply problems.

here's a 2002 county study showing a 1.9% annual growth rate expected through 2030. http://tinyurl.com/hgeu4

just skimmed 1st page. looks like an updated version shows us slowing down after 2015 so we only go from 1.6 million in 2000 to 2.3 million by 2030. i have no idea where all those people are going to park.

as to what attracts, yes & yes and add some icw action...

 

[justin]

Those population growth forecasts probably don't include feedback for ridiculously unaffordable housing prices. Who's gonna live there if they can't afford it?

One of the big problems surrounding long range forecasting of land use planning/population/employment growth is the feedback loop between each of those factors and other infrastructure constraints - education, transportation, water, sewer, etc. No one really has a good model to incorporate all of these factors with any degree of reliability. Throw on future economic and political uncertainties and good luck getting anything meaningful out of a model.

 

[lazygood4nothinbum]

well, of course that's correct. the only true way to determine population growth is to watch my weaving on i-95 as i try to arrive on time, yet not dead.

while we don't wanna see our values fall, frankly we'd be happier not with prices rising, but with population leveling. but going just on the last few years, even with rising prices, it's not looking good for anyone suffering demophobia.

 

[wabmester]

I figured it was time to update this thread.   I've been watching reports of the housing bubble collapse nation-wide for a while now, but some of the best information is coming directly from the home builders.    This latest earnings forecast from DR Horton even caught the bears off-guard:

Some analysts following the industry were caught off guard by the magnitude of D.R. Horton's profit warning.

"To say our initial reaction was surprise" would "heavily underestimate the impact; we were shocked," wrote Susquehanna Financial Group analyst Stephen East in a research note.

"Cancellations have taken a mighty toll on D.R. Horton's ability to deliver on its forecast, which has reduced its revenue and pressured margins as incentives have jumped substantially," he said. The shares should "get hit hard" on Friday, he added.

"Even this housing bear is stunned," said A.G. Edwards analyst Gregory Gieber in a note Friday. "This is an industry epidemic, and we believe others could get hit worse."

Article

Obviously, new home sales compete with resales, so watch the builders in your area for a leading indicator of market action.

 

[Scrooge]

Hm, so we are past the "market is leveling off" stage and the "soft landing" stage, fast approaching the "oh, this is going to be painful" stage. At this rate we should be hitting the "sky is falling" stage by the end of the year

 

[wabmester]

Increasing inventory and flat prices as sellers list their homes in denial of a soft market.    And then capitulation.

It's like watching a road-runner cartoon.   This is the part where Wile E. Coyote has just run off the end of a cliff, hovers in mid-air for a second, and then looks down and says "yikes!"

 

[REWahoo]

Things are a little different down here in Northern Mexico:

S.A. housing market is hot as the weather

Craig and Kelly Collins put their Medical Center-area home up for sale on a Friday afternoon in June. Two hours later, it sold for $1,200 over the asking price of $139,900.

"We had to go get ice cream to celebrate," said Craig, who — with a 2-year-old and two dogs — initially had dreaded the home-showing process. "To tell you the truth I thought it was a little crazy." Crazy, but increasingly common.

San Antonio's housing market is on pace to break sales records and reach all-time price highs in 2006. In neighborhoods across the city, well-maintained homes are going off the market within hours or days.

The median sales price over the first six months of the year reached $139,400, an 8.6 percent increase over last year,...

 

[haha]

Things are a little different down here in Northern Mexico:

S.A. housing market is hot as the weather

Craig and Kelly Collins put their Medical Center-area home up for sale on a Friday afternoon in June. Two hours later, it sold for $1,200 over the asking price of $139,900.

"We had to go get ice cream to celebrate," said Craig, who — with a 2-year-old and two dogs — initially had dreaded the home-showing process. "To tell you the truth I thought it was a little crazy."  Crazy, but increasingly common.

San Antonio's housing market is on pace to break sales records and reach all-time price highs in 2006.  In neighborhoods across the city, well-maintained homes are going off the market within hours or days.

The median sales price over the first six months of the year reached $139,400, an 8.6 percent increase over last year,...

Of course, Wahoo, but then your houses sell for the price of a one car garage up North. 

Ha

 

[IBWino]

Of course, Wahoo, but then your houses sell for the price of a one car garage up North. 

Ha

Yeah, here in the SF North Bay, 30 year old track homes are still going for $500K to $600K, although inventory is up quite a bit from last year.

 

[REWahoo]

Of course, Wahoo, but then your houses sell for the price of a one car garage up North.

Yep. What the article doesn't say is how many people from up North (and back East and out West) are selling those one car garages and moving to or buying investment property in this part of the world. That is definitely impacting RE prices here, along with some really good growth in the employment picture.

I'm just happy everyone in the family already owns a house and isn't trying to buy into this price headwind.

 

[Jarhead*]

along with some really good growth in the employment picture. 

ReWahoo: That's it. I can't take the pressure anymore. If you are bound and determined to work for wages again, so be it.

I recently lost a good fly-fishing partner (my cousin), who is about your age, and also a former AF pilot, to a job as a central valley crop duster.

"Hold this beer, Bubba, and I'll show you how to fly under those transmission lines."

There are, I'm sure, worse things than working for "wages" again, but please, be discreet.

Jarhead, who, as of now has officially resigned from the ReWahoo employment "watch".

(Can't take the stress anymore).

 

[REWahoo]

Jarhead, who, as of now has officially resigned from the ReWahoo employment "watch".

(Can't take the stress anymore).

Too much like w*rk, was it?

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

No new starts in my neighborhood in months. Two builders right up the street from me bought large tracts. One built out about 75% of his when a second one started. The second one built about 25% of his. They were pouring a couple of new slabs a week up until about 9-10 weeks ago. Nothing since. The second builders homes are looking a little lonely sitting there by themselves in a field. The builder hit the field with Roundup in early may to get ready to break ground...weeds grew back in already waist high.

 

[spideyrdpd]

I think part of the reason they still show price increases is cause it works as an avg or median. If you look at places that are waterfront its 400k for a one bedroom. A small one bedroom at that.
So the fact that my neighbors house hasnt sold hasnt played a part in the numbers.
I for one dont expect prices to drop that much for the average home. I dont think everyone will be as eager to pay for the bells and whistles. Suddenly the granite counters wont be worth the extra payment.

 

[MJ]

For what it's worth, according to zillion.com, the house I sold in NYC has gone up about 1% per month since April. I think zillion has it wrong.

 

[NYC Guy]

Housing in NYC is surprisingly still strong. Listings are up, but no one is selling except at high prices. Unless people have to sell quickly, they are still getting their price. All new construction is at tippy top dollar - 1500 a sq ft at minimum.