Sobering Probabilities

[Tekward]

From mortality tables for a 60 year old guy:

age (Male) 60
Death Probability @60 1.14%
Life Expectancy = 20.92
Prob of 5 years past 60= 93.5%
Prob of 10 years past 60= 84.6%
Prob of 20 years past 60= 56.3%
Prob of 30 years past 60= 18.4%


It is a bit depressing on two counts:
- the average 60 YO guy has <85% chance of living to 70 (too soon)
- ~20% of average guys will be around at 90 (outlive savings?)

 

[CaliKid]

Odds are better if eat healthy, work out, etc.... So do what you can to improve things for yourself! Hopefully you already are.

 

[RobbieB]

I don't care about how long I live.

I care about having as much fun as I can -

 

[TGL405]

We're all above average

 

[GrayHare]

What were these stats just a few generations ago? Based on that I'm already playing with the house's money.

 

[HadEnuff]

All I can say is that the rest of you guys are screwed.

 

[haha]

From mortality tables for a 60 year old guy:

age (Male) 60
Death Probability @60 1.14%
Life Expectancy = 20.92
Prob of 5 years past 60= 93.5%
Prob of 10 years past 60= 84.6%
Prob of 20 years past 60= 56.3%
Prob of 30 years past 60= 18.4%


It is a bit depressing on two counts:
- the average 60 YO guy has <85% chance of living to 70 (too soon)
- ~20% of average guys will be around at 90 (outlive savings?)

This bed is too soft! This bed is too hard! No matter what, we are definitely screwed.

Ha

 

[Meadbh]

Life is a sexually transmitted disease with 100% mortality.

 

[Spanky]

thanks for the stats. Let's enjoy every moment while we can!

 

[Texas Proud]

From mortality tables for a 60 year old guy:

age (Male) 60
Death Probability @60 1.14%
Life Expectancy = 20.92
Prob of 5 years past 60= 93.5%
Prob of 10 years past 60= 84.6%
Prob of 20 years past 60= 56.3%
Prob of 30 years past 60= 18.4%


It is a bit depressing on two counts:
- the average 60 YO guy has <85% chance of living to 70 (too soon)
- ~20% of average guys will be around at 90 (outlive savings?)

I think you are reading this wrong... there is a GREATER than 84% chance you will be living at 70...... (you have the less than sign)...

If you think about what you wrote... 85 die within the first 10 years but 20% live past 90... that is 105%....

 

[atmsmshr]

If you make it to 100 - you got it made ....... hardly anyone dies after that.

 

[braumeister]

Don't forget that the longer you live, the better your odds get.

 

[MrLoco]

I think you are reading this wrong... there is a GREATER than 84% chance you will be living at 70...... (you have the less than sign)...

If you think about what you wrote... 85 die within the first 10 years but 20% live past 90... that is 105%....

Texas is right. You are reading it backwards.

 

[Dawg52]

As they say.....no one is getting out of here alive. Just a matter of when.

 

[Nemo2]

As they say.....no one is getting out of here alive. Just a matter of when.

I'm accepting donations to demand a recount.

 

[harley]

All I can say is that I don't see anything in these stats that will cause me to increase my sobriety.

 

[travelover]

I think everyone reaches a point where they really, really get that life is finite. For most of our lives, we just kind of push it aside, the same way many younger people do about saving for retirement.

Better to acknowledge our mortality at a younger age and make the most of it rather than act surprised when we start to fade.

 

[RunningBum]

This bed is too soft! This bed is too hard! No matter what, we are definitely screwed.

Ha

Yeah, I really don't get this thread. I guess the OP considers ages 70-90 as the sweet spot. These stats say that about 2/3 of guys will fall in there. What's wrong with that? Pretty good odds, I'd say.

Want to improve those odds of making it to 70? Take charge of your health, and avoid unnecessary risks. There's no sense of worrying about the other things that may take you out then.

Want to not out live your savings after 90? Take control of your financial health. Save enough and track your spending so you know if you have to cut back. Defer SS to 70, or at least time starting it at a market low.

Or, just bask in the sorrow that you will die some day and it might not be at a convenient time for you, if that's what gets you off. Try not to bring others around you down with your cloudy attitude though.

 

[frayne]

Nobody gets out alive !

 

[Winemaker]

I wrote this once before....

I want to know WHERE I going to die at and then I just won't go there.

 

[Danmar]

Yeah, I really don't get this thread. I guess the OP considers ages 70-90 as the sweet spot. These stats say that about 2/3 of guys will fall in there. What's wrong with that? Pretty good odds, I'd say.

Want to improve those odds of making it to 70? Take charge of your health, and avoid unnecessary risks. There's no sense of worrying about the other things that may take you out then.

Want to not out live your savings after 90? Take control of your financial health. Save enough and track your spending so you know if you have to cut back. Defer SS to 70, or at least time starting it at a market low.

Or, just bask in the sorrow that you will die some day and it might not be at a convenient time for you, if that's what gets you off. Try not to bring others around you down with your cloudy attitude though.

Right. Life is much better if you have an optimistic view.

 

[COcheesehead]

Texas is right. You are reading it backwards.

+1

 

[RunningBum]

I think you are reading this wrong... there is a GREATER than 84% chance you will be living at 70...... (you have the less than sign)...

If you think about what you wrote... 85 die within the first 10 years but 20% live past 90... that is 105%....

That's not what he wrote. Read it again.

 

[mystang52]

Don't forget that the longer you live, the better your odds get.

Not sure if this was meant to be humorous or not, but it is true. Whatever one's life expectancy is at age 60 (e.g., age 70), it's a tad better at age 61 (e.g., age 70.5 or whatever), and so on. So one needs to look at these life expectancy stats in perspective.

 

[NW-Bound]

If you think about what you wrote... 85 die within the first 10 years but 20% live past 90... that is 105%....

No.

The 20% who live past 90 are part of the ones who live past 70. So you cannot add them up.

Here's another example.

Prob of 5 years past 60= 93.5%
Prob of 10 years past 60= 84.6%

One cannot add the above numbers up and say that the chance of living past any age is greater than 100%.

What we can say is that, take 100 60-year-old's now, 7 will drop off within 5 years, and 15 within 10 years. The 15 that die within 10 years include the 7 that die within 5 years.

That's 1-in-6 chance (15 out of 100) of not making it to 70 if you are 60 now. And that is higher than people realize.

Think of loading a revolver which holds 6 rounds with 1 single bullet, and play the Russian roulette. It's scary, no?