Sobering Probabilities

Let's look a bit further.

Prob of 10 years past 60= 84.6%
Prob of 20 years past 60= 56.3%

Out of one hundred 60-year-olds, 15 will die before 70 (100-85=15). Then, another 29 will die before 80, so that the number of survivors to 80 is 56 = 100 - 15 - 29.

Say that you are among the lucky ones to survive the 1st round of Russian roulette, there are 85 of you, what is the chance you will make it to 80?

Out of the 85 who make it to 70, 29 will die off before 80 (to leave 56 survivors). So, the risk of death for a 70-year old is 29/85 = 34%.

You get to play the Russian roulette again, but with 2 rounds loaded. 2 bullets in a 6-shot revolver gives you the risk of 2/6 = 33%.
 
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Let's keep on going.

Prob of 20 years past 60= 56.3%
Prob of 30 years past 60= 18.4%

So, you make it to 80. There are only 56 survivors out of the original 100. Only 18 of those will make it to 90. So, the number of deaths is 56 - 18 = 38.

38 deaths out of 56. That's huge. That's 38/56 = 68%, the risk of death for an 80-year-old. Your Russian roulette game now has 4 bullets loaded in the gun!
 
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Tekward said:
It is a bit depressing on two counts:
- the average 60 YO guy has <85% chance of living to 70 (too soon)
- ~20% of average guys will be around at 90 (outlive savings?)
Click to expand...

RunningBum said:
That's not what he wrote. Read it again.
Click to expand...

My bold on his quote... he is saying you have less than a 85% chance of living to 70.... that means 85% of the people die before 70... if so, there is no way 20% can live past 90.....
 
NW-Bound said:
No.

The 20% who live past 90 are part of the ones who live past 70. So you cannot add them up.

Here's another example.

Prob of 5 years past 60= 93.5%
Prob of 10 years past 60= 84.6%

One cannot add the above numbers up and say that the chance of living past any age is greater than 100%.

What we can say is that, take 100 60-year-old's now, 7 will drop off within 5 years, and 15 within 10 years. The 15 that die within 10 years include the 7 that die within 5 years.

That's 1-in-6 chance (15 out of 100) of not making it to 70 if you are 60 now. And that is higher than people realize.

Think of loading a revolver which holds 6 rounds with 1 single bullet, and play the Russian roulette. It's scary, no?
Click to expand...

Read my post above.... I agree that if you only look at the table you are right... but he made a comment that had the wrong sign...


Unless of course I am having a dyslexic moment....
 
Texas Proud said:
My bold on his quote... he is saying you have less than a 85% chance of living to 70.... that means 85% of the people die before 70... if so, there is no way 20% can live past 90.....
Click to expand...

No, a 84.6% (which is less than 85%, the OP's quote) chance of living to 70 mean that 84.6% of people live past 70, not die before. Only 15.4% of men die before 70.
 
I have a cousin who lived to 96. His brother lived to 74. Dad lived to 95. My brother died at 69. Mom died at 57.

I am amazed that I am still going at 74...every year above ground is a good year...
 
Thinking some more about this, my reduction of the OP's numbers can be summarized as follows.

If you make it to 60 (where I am now), the risk of dying between 60 and 70 is 1 in 6.

Then, once you make it to 70, the risk of dying before 80 doubles to 1 in 3.

If you survive again, then the risk of dying before 90 goes up to 2 in 3.

The rule of thumb is the risk doubles every decade.

Between 90 and 100, death is near certainty. Indeed, only 173 out of 1 million make it to 100, according to the US 2010 Census. And of those centenarians, 83% are women.
 
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RunningBum said:
No, a 84.6% (which is less than 85%, the OP's quote) chance of living to 70 mean that 84.6% of people live past 70, not die before. Only 15.4% of men die before 70.
Click to expand...


OK... I see... I was reading it wrong...
 
OMG! We're all gonna die. Argggh.

And a Happy New Year to you, too.
 
The problem with mortality tables is that they are averages of everyone: they don't take into account "priors". For instance: do you smoke, do you exercise, what your education level is, what your gender is, whether you are married, what your current health is, etc. Those, among other factors, contribute a lot to your expected longevity. There are calculators out there that consider these factors. I tried one and, at age 60, got an expected (50% chance) of living to 90.
 
Fred123 said:
The problem with mortality tables is that they are averages of everyone: they don't take into account "priors". For instance: do you smoke, do you exercise, what your education level is, what your gender is, whether you are married, what your current health is, etc. Those, among other factors, contribute a lot to your expected longevity. There are calculators out there that consider these factors. I tried one and, at age 60, got an expected (50% chance) of living to 90.
Click to expand...

You gotta take these calculators with a grain of salt. I tried one, and it told me there was a 92.6% chance I was already dead.
 
To quote Woody Allen: “I'm not afraid of death; I just don't want to be there when it happens.”
 
Fred123 said:
The problem with mortality tables is that they are averages of everyone: they don't take into account "priors". For instance: do you smoke, do you exercise, what your education level is, what your gender is, whether you are married, what your current health is, etc. Those, among other factors, contribute a lot to your expected longevity. There are calculators out there that consider these factors. I tried one and, at age 60, got an expected (50% chance) of living to 90.
Click to expand...

there are separate mortality tables for smokers and nonsmokers, different genders, different races and different "collars"

you just need to look harder
 
The bad news is that those life expectancy numbers might have peaked for us.


Dying younger: U.S. life expectancy 'a real problem'

Perhaps it is a due to a combination of increasingly sedentary lifestyles, obesity, food additives/pesticides/hormones/antibiotics, chemicals in the water and air, increasing frequency of exposure to various imaging energy from dental and medical to full body airport scans, sitting in front of glowing screens all day, continuously holding devices close to body with multiple RF emitters in cellular, wifi, bluetooth, and other bands, increased use of opiods, other drugs, medications, increases in depression & suicides, increasingly distracted drivers, ... who really knows? Stay healthy, eat right, exercise, surround yourself with positive family & friends, nap, keep away from toxic people/radio/news, learn something new every day, travel, give back to community, be thankful for your blessings & enjoy the retirement life.
 
Big_Hitter said:
there are separate mortality tables for smokers and nonsmokers, different genders, different races and different "collars"

you just need to look harder
Click to expand...

You can find mortality tables that add a single factor (say smoking) but you really need to combine all those factors, not just the individual factors. So not the probability of dying given that you are smoker, but, say, the probability of dying given that you are a smoker, male, white, make > $80K a year, have a graduate degree, etc. Perhaps you can find me one of those.
 
Fred123 said:
You can find mortality tables that add a single factor (say smoking) but you really need to combine all those factors, not just the individual factors. So not the probability of dying given that you are smoker, but, say, the probability of dying given that you are a smoker, male, white, make > $80K a year, have a graduate degree, etc. Perhaps you can find me one of those.
Click to expand...

most of those are proprietary i'm afraid
 
retiredunder50 said:
The bad news is that those life expectancy numbers might have peaked for us.


Dying younger: U.S. life expectancy 'a real problem'

Perhaps it is a due to a combination of increasingly sedentary lifestyles, obesity, food additives/pesticides/hormones/antibiotics, chemicals in the water and air, increasing frequency of exposure to various imaging energy from dental and medical to full body airport scans, sitting in front of glowing screens all day, continuously holding devices close to body with multiple RF emitters in cellular, wifi, bluetooth, and other bands, increased use of opiods, other drugs, medications, increases in depression & suicides, increasingly distracted drivers, ... who really knows? Stay healthy, eat right, exercise, surround yourself with positive family & friends, nap, keep away from toxic people/radio/news, learn something new every day, travel, give back to community, be thankful for your blessings & enjoy the retirement life.
Click to expand...

It also helps a lot to be rich:

https://healthinequality.org/
url
 
Big_Hitter said:
most of those are proprietary i'm afraid
Click to expand...

But I thought they were easy to find! Regardless, the original poster expressed concern about life expectancy using, apparently, a single factor mortality table. My point was to take that with a grain of salt.
 
there are a bunch on the soa.org research page
 
Just today mentioned to my mother that the odds of herself and DH living past 80 are below 50%. Never mind both being in great health.

So please take that cruise now, not next year.
 
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