Started nibblin

[Hamlet]

I bought a little GIS, TAP, and CSCO in the last day or two.

Not a lot, just enough to not feel bad if the market bounces back strongly.

Still not excited about most of the valuations in the market currently.

I’ve bought a little more TAP, BUD, SKT, USB, FB and today I even nibbled on HAL.

I think we are probably still just getting started in this correction, but I’m finding a few things that I feel are rationally priced.

 

[Fermion]

I keep waiting for Merck to drop down...it goes down to 78 or so then right back up to $81.

BMY also was looking nice, like it was going to go to the low $50s but it has gone back up a little too.

I am scared of smaller biotechs right now because they hinge on relatively few trials and I do not know if the virus will taint the results of these trials (if it heavily affects people with compromised health, it probably will).

Instead of bailing out the cruise industry, we might think of some low interest loans to small biotech companies whose trials got compromised.

 

[brewer12345]

Larry Kudlow is one of the dumbest men alive.

Hah! He may be dumb, but I suspect a lot of it is because he is a bought and paid for shill. An idiot, but someone's idiot.

Actually, in street parlance he is known as "Kudblow" because fairly solid rumor had it that he got drummed out of the industry due to his love of the nose candy.

 

[GoBugGo]

Haven't reached my ridiculously low buy prices yet. If I get my prices things are going to be pretty bad and I'll need the good news.

Agree that we still likely have farther to fall.

Having said that, it's impossible to say when or by how much, so it's prudent to nibble on high-quality companies with attractive valuations. The dividend aristocrats are a great place to start, particularly domestic companies like T, VZ, MO, etc.

 

[The Cosmic Avenger]

Hah! He may be dumb, but I suspect a lot of it is because he is a bought and paid for shill. An idiot, but someone's idiot.

If he's well paid to say idiotic things, I am not sure that he is the idiot here. (To clarify, it's either his sponsors, or those targeted by his sponsors, depending on whether anyone actually listens to him.)

 

[Montecfo]

May never get there but if they close a park or three for an extended period, I bet it does.

Also waiting on that buy signal, but have been nibbling. Like it for the LT.

 

[Montecfo]

Agree that we still likely have farther to fall.

Having said that, it's impossible to say when or by how much, so it's prudent to nibble on high-quality companies with attractive valuations. The dividend aristocrats are a great place to start, particularly domestic companies like T, VZ, MO, etc.

I own NOBL, which is the Powershares Div Aristocrat ETF. Good place to look if you like dividends.

 

[ERD50]

Agree that we still likely have farther to fall.

Having said that, it's impossible to say when or by how much, so it's prudent to nibble on high-quality companies with attractive valuations. The dividend aristocrats are a great place to start, particularly domestic companies like T, VZ, MO, etc.

I own NOBL, which is the Powershares Div Aristocrat ETF. Good place to look if you like dividends.

Do you like 'dividends' more than you like 'money'?

I don't get this fascination with dividends. First, NOBL is currently at ~ 2.13% divs, a diversified investment in SPY is at 1.90%, not a huge difference.

But an investment in NOBL (since NOBL inception), or a portfolio of T, VZ, MO would significantly under-perform SPY.

portfolio-visualizer link:[-]http://bit.ly/2TIO7l8[/-] edit, proper link: http://bit.ly/38FjPnz

Start with $1,000,000
SPY: _____ $1,906,845
NOBL: ____ $1,777,615
T, VZ, MO: $1,475,028

Even if you are drawing down that div instead of re-investing, the trend is the same. The extra ~ $129K from SPY could cover about 6 years of the 2.13% divs from NOBL, leaving the actual divs to be reinvested for that time.

What's to like about 'dividends'?

-ERD50

 

[kevdude]

Bought ~$5000 in Boeing (BA) stock today just before the close. This is my first foray into Boeing, so we'll see what happens. Will most likely add to it in the near term as well.

 

[Sanstar]

Bought $5,000 of FDLO today. Will add to it as budget allows.

 

[kgtest]

Do you like 'dividends' more than you like 'money'?

I don't get this fascination with dividends. First, NOBL is currently at ~ 2.13% divs, a diversified investment in SPY is at 1.90%, not a huge difference.

But an investment in NOBL (since NOBL inception), or a portfolio of T, VZ, MO would significantly under-perform SPY.

portfolio-visualizer link: http://bit.ly/2TIO7l8

Start with $1,000,000
SPY: _____ $1,906,845
NOBL: ____ $1,777,615
T, VZ, MO: $1,475,028

Even if you are drawing down that div instead of re-investing, the trend is the same. The extra ~ $129K from SPY could cover about 6 years of the 2.13% divs from NOBL, leaving the actual divs to be reinvested for that time.

What's to like about 'dividends'?

-ERD50

I'm totally total return!

 

[Running_Man]

I am saving my money for the fire sale. $250 Tesla, $72 Merck, $180 Apple


Oh, and Disney. I want some Disney, but only want to pay $90 max

Disney look for $50, Apple at $125 will be a good price, and TESLA I would never buy.

 

[ziggy29]

Do you like 'dividends' more than you like 'money'?

I don't get this fascination with dividends.

Balance sheets and reported earnings can be faked or horribly manipulated -- Enron, anyone?

You can't fake cold, hard cash being paid out to you every quarter.

 

[ERD50]

Balance sheets and reported earnings can be faked or horribly manipulated -- Enron, anyone?

You can't fake cold, hard cash being paid out to you every quarter.

I don't do individual stocks either. VTI anyone?

edit/add: I realized I should add - if you are taking say 3.5% in divs, and I'm taking the 1.9% divs from VTI, and selling off 1.6% on average, the amount I sell is now cold, hard cash as well.

The remaining stock that is held by either of us is subject to faking and manipulation. For VTI, the diversification across a thousand or so stocks limits the damage from any outlier fakers. A portfolio of div payers will not be as diversified as VTI.

-ERD50

 

[Running_Man]

Bought ~$5000 in Boeing (BA) stock today just before the close. This is my first foray into Boeing, so we'll see what happens. Will most likely add to it in the near term as well.

What is it about Boeing that interests you? Boeing actually has a negative book value. ON January 24th Value Line lowered the Safety Rating on the stock from 2 to 3 with the stock at 323, that is a terribly negative sign. The financial Strength was lowered on November 10th 2019 with stock price at 375 It also lowered the timeliness from 3 to 4 putting it in the 10% worst rated stocks. Now Boeing has shown the loss of value that Value Line first saw back in November.

Boeing spend 2.75 BILLION dollars buying back shares in 2019 at an average price of 370, while revenues dropped off the map and earnings went negative. Now Boeing after buying 11 Billion in stock in 2018 has increased debt to an unbelievable 20 Billion dollars from 8 billion dollars, from 5% of revenues to 17% of revenues. They halted the dividend since they are not making any money. All the cash Boeing has spent since 2013 - 48 billion dollars - buying back shares has resulted in a net nothing in 2013 when they decided to begin the very aggressive share buyback the stock price was at $136, in the meantime the cut back on Engineering, safety, design.

Boeing has proven to be the worst stock investor in the world over the past 7 years and one of the poorest corporate governance of investor's money. They are undeserving of the trust of any investor in my mind.

 

[Montecfo]

Do you like 'dividends' more than you like 'money'?

I don't get this fascination with dividends. First, NOBL is currently at ~ 2.13% divs, a diversified investment in SPY is at 1.90%, not a huge difference.

But an investment in NOBL (since NOBL inception), or a portfolio of T, VZ, MO would significantly under-perform SPY.

portfolio-visualizer link: http://bit.ly/2TIO7l8

Start with $1,000,000
SPY: _____ $1,906,845
NOBL: ____ $1,777,615
T, VZ, MO: $1,475,028

Even if you are drawing down that div instead of re-investing, the trend is the same. The extra ~ $129K from SPY could cover about 6 years of the 2.13% divs from NOBL, leaving the actual divs to be reinvested for that time.

What's to like about 'dividends'?

-ERD50

Over the long-term the dividend aristocrats have outperformed the S&P 500 with less volatility. This is according to many sources: investopedia, Wikipedia, motley fool and others.

It is true that no strategy works in all markets and over all time periods but I am not sure what is not to like about higher returns and lower beta

 

[ERD50]

Over the long-term the dividend aristocrats have outperformed the S&P 500 with less volatility. This is according to many sources: investopedia, Wikipedia, motley fool and others.

It is true that no strategy works in all markets and over all time periods but I am not sure what is not to like about higher returns and lower beta

Please share some data so we can all see it.

I see that Investopedia claims the DA do better, but provide no data. The tracking funds they mention are NOBL (already discussed that it under-performed S&P), and WDIV. I plugged WDIV into portfolio visualizer, and it did far worse than either.

short link: http://bit.ly/2TXgwmz

If they are better, it should be easy to provide the data, as I have, time and time again.

-ERD50

 

[Montecfo]

Please share some data so we can all see it.

I see that Investopedia claims the DA do better, but provide no data. The tracking funds they mention are NOBL (already discussed that it under-performed S&P), and WDIV. I plugged WDIV into portfolio visualizer, and it did far worse than either.

short link: http://bit.ly/2TXgwmz

If they are better, it should be easy to provide the data, as I have, time and time again.

-ERD50

I do not think Standard and Poor's, which owns both indexes, is trying to mislead anyone and they say just what I said. Go to the S&P 500 dividend aristocrats wiki. It includes details on the returns and standard deviation over the last decade.

There is a nice graph back to 1998 on The Motley Fool to the same effect. It is easy to find if you simply google "dividend aristocrats vs SPY".

The Proshares website has a fact sheet on NOBL. It has graphics going back to 2005 (when the index started), to the same effect.

The best source IMHO for all the details is the Sure Dividend website (www.suredividend.com). If you scroll all the way to the bottom of the front page you can download a spreadsheet going back to 1989, which you can use to do your own analysis, if desired. The Sure Dividend site uses the data to arrive at the conclusion that the dividend achievers have outperformed SPY over the long-term with lower volatility

 

[Sunset]

GOOG and GOOGL are about 20% off their 52-week highs, too. I have a mental block buying more of those or AAPL, though, because I bought them so low back in 2008.

What is the difference between them ?

 

[The Cosmic Avenger]

What is the difference between them ?

GOOGL are class A, GOOG are class C; class A shares can vote, class C shares have no voting rights. They trade pretty closely, IIRC, with class A shares at a slight premium.

Class B shares are not publicly traded, they are held by the founders and have a majority of the shareholder votes (10 votes per share).

 

[ERD50]

I do not think Standard and Poor's, which owns both indexes, is trying to mislead anyone and they say just what I said. Go to the S&P 500 dividend aristocrats wiki. It includes details on the returns and standard deviation over the last decade.

There is a nice graph back to 1998 on The Motley Fool to the same effect. It is easy to find if you simply google "dividend aristocrats vs SPY".

The Proshares website has a fact sheet on NOBL. It has graphics going back to 2005 (when the index started), to the same effect.

The best source IMHO for all the details is the Sure Dividend website (www.suredividend.com). If you scroll all the way to the bottom of the front page you can download a spreadsheet going back to 1989, which you can use to do your own analysis, if desired. The Sure Dividend site uses the data to arrive at the conclusion that the dividend achievers have outperformed SPY over the long-term with lower volatility

Could you provide direct links to the data that you claim shows these are superior?

I'm not finding the spreadsheet you talk about. Is it in a "Members Only" section? I don't feel like going on a hunt through these web sites, I've provided data, where is yours?

Why don't the total return calculators I'm using show NOBL or WDIV beating SPY? I would need to see the data. Here's another (set the slider bar to "ALL"):

https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?SPY,NOBL,wdiv

-ERD50

 

[GoBugGo]

Do you like 'dividends' more than you like 'money'?

Dividends are money, in the form of monthly cash flows. These cash flows pays bills.

 

[kgtest]

Damnit. Well the crystal ball broke once again lol. Down on my AAPL, next time I guess I'll listen to R_M again. $125 I think he said. Here we go. Wheeeeee!!!

I only bought like $4k worth. IF I lost it all it wouldn't even make a dent. It'll be back. might be a while before I see 300 again though

 

[ERD50]

Dividends are money, in the form of monthly cash flows. These cash flows pays bills.

Of course. It's all money, the divs and the principal. That's my point. I've never had a payment rejected for any bill because I used the cash from the proceeds of a sale. They recognize it is all money too.

And again, divs are essentially the company selling off a portion of the company. When I do it, I can control the timing and amount.

-ERD50

 

[kgtest]

When I do it, I can control the timing and amount.

-ERD50

Fair statement. Having flexibility creates opportunity.