Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point...........

[charlie]

Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......

CT, I should have added that he already has a full
time job elsewhere. I only employ him about 14
hrs per week. I am not "gleeful" at only paying
him $10 per hour ..... you make it sound like I am
"exploiting" him. That is more than a fair wage for
janitorial work in my area. I am "hopeful" that my
laundry will recover its profitability. Why do you
insist on making everything fit your political bias?

Charlie

 

[Nords]

Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......

I say we do an exchange program on a one to one basis with Mexcio....the liberals leave, and the Mexicans come in.
Billy
website  www.geocities.com/ba264

It'd never fly. Mexico's standards are too high!

 

[mark]

Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......

I view the stock market as having a current price, the earnings yield. It is neither 'overbought nor oversold'. The return may come as a slow stable return or as a current loss leading to a higher expected return, or a current gain leading to a lower expected return.

Generally I would expect stock earnings yield (real due to reinvestment of earnings) to equal bond yields (nominal since no internal reinvestment) due to differences in investing costs and maturity. Unfortunately, I'm can't tell which side will adjust to re-establish the relationship.

I'd also like to point out that few companies actually miss their earnings estimates, while many analysts can't get their estimates right. The comapny actually had to do something, not just talk about it. (personal pet peeve)

 

[Jarhead*]

Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......

I am not saying that you are doing anything wrong with giving the poor guy $10 an hour. I just don't see any reason to be so gleeful and hopeful about it. I understand that it is a great deal for you.

Put yourself in this guy's shoes. We all say, that $20K per year would not sustain us. So how can it sustain anyone else?

Cutthroat: You are way out of line here!
Charly is 70 years old, operates a laundromat to supplement his income, and pays a guy $10.00 an hour for clean-up work. (Seems damn reasonable to me).
I think one of your trips to a warm climate may be in order
Jarhead

 

[haha]

Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......

I really don't think Cut-Throat is talking about whether Charley's worker is adequately paid or not. As Charley pointed out, his laundromat is not doing all that well, and he porbably could not afford to pay more anyway.

I think Cut-Throat is talking about something broader, whether this 2-tier society that we are building augers well for our future as a nation. I believe he thinks that it does not, and I agree completely. It doesn't matter that I am one of life's winners, as are my children and everybody in my family. I still think it is exploitave, and if anyone has any balls left eventually they will tire of it.

You know, a free market at base means that if your product is tradeable, your wages will tend toward those of China.

Terrific idea! Then ask young men and women to go to Iraq and get blown up to preserve this.

America is a nation, not a cafeteria where anyone can come and take whatever is there for him to take, figure out how to avoid or minimize taxes on his haul, and then go back home.

I realize this is not currently fashionable sentiment, but if we are to prosper as a nation it will have to become so.

Mikey

 

[Cut-Throat]

Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......

Thanks Mikey! - You completely hit the nail on the head and said it much better I.

It was not targeted at Charlie or any individual, just an observation of what has been going on in this country for the last 25 years.

 

[hocus]

Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......

I think Cut-Throat is talking about something broader, whether this 2-tier society that we are building augers well for our future as a nation.

I worry about the squeeze on the middle-class worker.

 

[John Galt]

Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......

Cut_Throat and Mikey, back into political discourse again? . Mikey, your post (in spite of Cut-Throat's attaboy) is mostly all liberal bleeding-heart crap. You guys need to get a grip. Normally I might cut you some
slack (CHPs?) but you are getting out into Bizarro World. I say, hire whoever you want for any reason you want. Pay them whatever you wish. If they don't like it they can go elsewhere. Pure capitalism. It used to be that way in this country. So, Cut-Throat, listen to
Jarhead and take Mikey with you And BTW, although I am royally P.O.ed with the inflow of Hispanics, if Mexico
would just take our liberals, I would welcome the Mexicans with open arms. I am quite serious about that.

JG

 

[haha]

Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......

Cut_Throat and Mikey, back into political discourse again?  .  Mikey, your post (in spite of Cut-Throat's attaboy) is mostly all liberal bleeding-heart crap. 

Way to go, Johhny Boy. Spoken with a deep understanding that must be part of your Mensa-Man training.

Keep it up, man.

Mikey

 

[Jay_Gatsby]

Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......

You know, a free market at base means that if your product is tradeable, your wages will tend toward those of China.

Mikey

Mikey,

I understand where you and Cut-Throat are coming from, but artificial preservation of an economic way of life for one class (i.e. the middle class) is contrary to the capitalist model. The goal of companies is to minimize expenses and maximize profits. They are not engines for social engineering.

 

[RockMiner]

Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......

Where to begin...I agree that a strong middle class is likely to be good for the nation's future. Unlike some however, I don't believe the "two tier" society we are supposedly developing is due to some dark conspiracy of exploitative capitalists. I do think the rest of the world has figured out how to make "stuff" as well and cheaper than we in the USA. The jig is up.

History shows how nations have traded places as the dominant economic power, as the basis for wealth changes. Why should the USA be any different? The "invisible hand" of economics will have it's way with us, sooner or later.

Life isn't fair, never has been, never will be. No amount of legislation will make it so. And anyone who goes to "WallyMart" to save a buck is as much a part of the problem as "corporate greed".

Er, I'm going back to my egg nog now

 

[John Galt]

Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......

Hey Mikey! Just like Rush Limbaugh, when I deal with
libs, I have half my brain tied behind my back, just to make it fair

JG

 

[Jay_Gatsby]

Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......

Where to begin...I agree that a strong middle class is likely to be good for the nation's future. Unlike some however, I don't believe the "two tier" society we are supposedly developing is due to some dark conspiracy of exploitative capitalists. I do think the rest of the world has figured out how to make "stuff" as well and cheaper than we in the USA. The jig is up.

So is the goal of a nation to be a continuous engine of innovation, and commensurate with such innovation, encourage (if not mandate) education for its workforce? The days of graduating from high school (whatever that education is worth) and taking a job in a manufacturing plant for the next 30 years are over. Computer skills are absolutely critical, even for the guy/gal on the manufacturing line. It would seem that a reluctance on the part of the American worker to learn the skills necessary to either drive the engine of innovation, or at least help keep it repaired and running smooth, is exacerbating the desire of companies to offshore their operations to countries such as India that have educated workforces. Yes, the individuals in such countries will work for half the wage demanded by American workers (and the cost of living is half or less than it is here), but companies might consider those extra costs acceptable (or be given tax incentives to offset them) if they could find a comparable workforce in America.

History shows how nations have traded places as the dominant economic power, as the basis for wealth changes. Why should the USA be any different? The "invisible hand" of economics will have it's way with us, sooner or later.

Agreed. America had a tremendous advantage at the end of World War II, in that its economy and manufacturing sector was the only one left standing. Having such a head start allowed America to remain dominant through the 1970s, at which point countries like Japan and Germany had repaired their economies and manufacturing sectors to such a degree that they could compete with (if not surpass) the quality and cost of American goods. Although we do not want to end up like any number of world powers (empires) that rose and fell within a few hundred years, that is the fate we face unless there is significant change in the next couple of decades. Simply preserving the status quo to satisfy a large voting block (such as the Baby Boomer generation) as they retire and move into the politically-active senior citizen class is not going to do it.

Life isn't fair, never has been, never will be. No amount of legislation will make it so. And anyone who goes to "WallyMart" to save a buck is as much a part of the problem as "corporate greed".

Er, I'm going back to my egg nog now

True, we FIRE types are always looking to save a buck or two, and we do shop at stores where the goods are manufactured cheaply overseas. Yet why shouldn't we? The whole idea of "Buy American" for the mere sake of doing so is economic isolationism without purpose that, while in the short term may preserve American jobs, will likely cause America to fall behind those countries that are not so isolated in their buying habits. One need only look at the former Soviet Union to see how restricting access (although in our case it is for now voluntary, but may be enforced by the government) to domestic goods leads to a lack of quality and/or innovation on the part of domestic manufacturers, while the rest of the world flourishes.

 

[Martha]

Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......

Our firm has a client that employees about 100 people in manufacturing certain specialized clothing. The owner is a long time friend of mine. He strongly believes in our community and cares about his employees. He pays as much as he can and still manage some growth and pay the bills. He has been approached a number of times the companies he purchases fabric from and they have tried to get him to move his manufacturing to China--saying that is the road to growth and he could make much, much more money. He isn't going to do it. This has got to be rare. In the end, it might destroy his ability to compete as others begin to more cheaply manufacture and sell the same products. I have no idea what we can do about it.

 

[Cut-Throat]

Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......

Most of you seem rather pleased here at the demise of the middle class. Let me remind you, we are a democracy first and capitalist country second.

When the masses wake up, there will be a politician to offer a solution.  

Don't confuse a great form of government with a great economic engine!

 

[John Galt]

Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......

The people who founded this country got it right.
The politicians always have a "solution", but government keeps growing and things keep getting worse IHMO. The Republicans are no better. God save us from the politicians, in all their forms and guises.

JG

 

[RockMiner]

Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......

When the masses wake up, there will be a politician to offer a solution.  

Hey Cut, one wonders what your preferred "solution" would be?

 

[Cut-Throat]

Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......

Hey Cut, one wonders what your preferred "solution" would be?

There has to be a balance. And we have swung too far to the right  like the 1920's. You cannot keep screwing the middle class without repercussions.

A Herbert Hoover style depression, can turn things the other way pretty fast.

I'm all for capitalism, but right now the country is running a 'false economy' on many levels'. Just borrowing money for Tax Cuts mostly for the rich that don't need them, and not cutting any programs. We all know it can't continue.

We're headed in the wrong direction. How far do you want to go

 

[parnass]

Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......

There has to be a balance. And we have swung too far to the right like the 1920's. You cannot keep screwing the middle class without repercussions...

Agreed. I think of it as riding a bicycle. Sometimes I must steer a little to the right, then a little to the left to stay on the road.

However, the two major political parties are becoming too much alike in certain respects and neither is doing a good job of representing my interests.

 

[Martha]

Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......

There has to be a balance. And we have swung too far to the right like the 1920's. You cannot keep screwing the middle class without repercussions.

A Herbert Hoover style depression, can turn things the other way pretty fast.

I'm all for capitalism, but right now the country is running a 'false economy' on many levels'. Just borrowing money for Tax Cuts mostly for the rich that don't need them, and not cutting any programs. We all know it can't continue.

We're headed in the wrong direction. How far do you want to go

I think we will go much farther than most would want because there is so much misinformation out there. Like the survey I mentioned a few days ago in the WSJ, many people believe that Medicare covers nursing homes and that they are eligible for full social security before age 65. I also know at least anecdotally (is that a word?) that a number of people don't see a health insurance crisis because they believe that even if you have no insurance, you will get treated anyway. Not true! Sure emergency rooms have to treat emergencies but emergency rooms don't give you chemotherapy and don't dispense drugs that are necessary to your life.

Also, we value self reliance so much in this country that failure to be successful is considered a failing that is your fault. So who the heck cares what happens to you then, since after all you brought it on yourself.

 

[johnblake]

Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......

... but artificial preservation of an economic way of life for one class (i.e. the middle class) is contrary to the capitalist model.

It's interesting to hear most of you talking about the US as a Captitalist nation. In reality we're about as Capitalist as we are Socialist. The over the past 60 years the Capitalist brand has been marketed as an alternative to Socialism. In reality we are both.

If we were anything close to Capitalist we wouldn't have the government meddling in social engineering or financial/monetary policy. One obvious example is the child tax credit. When GW nominated the new head of the Dept. of Ag. I thought why do we have that? We don't have a Dept. of High Tech? Our 'Capitalist' government is in the business of relulating industries and in many cases this results in less choice and competition (for examples, medical insurance, and prescription drugs, and the medical industry.)

Read this list of federal government agencies:
http://www.whitehouse.gov/government/independent-agencies.html

AMTRAC? Bureau of Transportation Statistics? Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)? Farm Credit Administration (FCA)? Federal Mediation & Conciliation Service? Federal Railroad Administration? Ginnie Mae? Legal Services Corporation?

There's also the "wars for oil".

And then there are the big expensive social programs: Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.

I don't think any argument against change because it goes against a 'capitalist model' holds credibility. We're very far from a capitalist nation.

 

[Will Robinson]

Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......

Jay_Gatsby wrote:
... but artificial preservation of an economic way of life for one class (i.e. the middle class) is contrary to the capitalist model.

I don't see artificial preservation of a wealthy class of a few thousand people as particularly praiseworthy or helpful.

Also, we value self reliance so much in this country that failure to be successful is considered a failing that is your fault. So who the heck cares what happens to you then, since after all you brought it on yourself.

So true but I think it's more of a ruse than a national "value". It's just a way of blowing people off and ignoring the inherent shorfalls of the economy. It's like religion was used to neutralize people in the middle ages and keep them in their place.


Obviously The Rich are rich with Big Government as a partner

The rich don't get rich on their own as anyone who has ev. They do it by co-opting the working class and

 

[John Galt]

Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......

Class envy is very unattractive.

JG

 

[sgeeeee]

Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......

Class envy is very unattractive.

JG

So is the mindless spewing of knee-jerk Republican dogma.  

 

[John Galt]

Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......

Salaryguru screwed up grammatically, but we all know what he meant. Also, Mikey basically thinks my posts
are trite recitations of Republican dogma too, as far as
I can tell. I reject both accusations. I typically support
Republicans only because they are USUALLY
farher right than Dems on the issues I care about. Otherwise,
I dislike them and the Dems with equal fervor. Think of me as a Libertarian martini with a pro-life twist.

I am now going to enjoy my day. Essays, insightful
commentary, and pithy observations will continue
tomorrow

JG