Lsbcal
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Here is my guess: we have a lot of debt, pension problems, state financing issues, etc. The most obvious solution is to grow the economy very strongly. In recent years strong growth did not come with a helping of inflation whcih was a surprise to many. So we will see more government spending to turbocharge growth and an attempt at getting mild inflation (3% or so). It's kind of happening now and will accelerate well beyond current government spending. Probably depends a lot on the coming elections, but no politics on this please.
Covid screwed up the strong growth but it will not be with us forever. At least not in a way to halt growth. I think government will take the Fed's request and step up the spending ... perhaps a lot. And for some years to come.
Stocks: the above argues for good stock performance even with a bit of inflation. Probably good for both growth and value stocks. Might get some near term extra bounce in value but I tend to go with the momentum which has been for growth stocks.
Bonds: put your guess here but I think rates will be managed to either stay low or very gradually increase. This is probably the consensus now. A very gradual increase will reduce bond yields that investors have enjoyed over recent decades but not destroy them. My current preference is to take the bond allocation and split it into a 30% broad stock allocation (like SP500) and low risk intermediate Treasuries.
Go ahead and place your views here. No snarky comments please. Agree or disagree? This thread is just for fun after all.
Covid screwed up the strong growth but it will not be with us forever. At least not in a way to halt growth. I think government will take the Fed's request and step up the spending ... perhaps a lot. And for some years to come.
Stocks: the above argues for good stock performance even with a bit of inflation. Probably good for both growth and value stocks. Might get some near term extra bounce in value but I tend to go with the momentum which has been for growth stocks.
Bonds: put your guess here but I think rates will be managed to either stay low or very gradually increase. This is probably the consensus now. A very gradual increase will reduce bond yields that investors have enjoyed over recent decades but not destroy them. My current preference is to take the bond allocation and split it into a 30% broad stock allocation (like SP500) and low risk intermediate Treasuries.
Go ahead and place your views here. No snarky comments please. Agree or disagree? This thread is just for fun after all.