Sweden’s “Bold Experiment?”

[aiken]

Staying open did not save Sweden's economy. As Christine points out above, they are economically worse off now than their neighbors who shut down.

It's possible that things would be in even worse shape if they had also shut down, but there's no way to know that.

I can't find any data that supports your statement. What a concept. Shutting down food production, manufacturing, service industries is the road to economic success!

 

[MichaelB]

This is still evolving, and we don’t have enough information to draw specific conclusions. Until we do, why not knock off the snark and sarcasm. It doesn’t help or contribute to thoughtful dialog.

 

[cathy63]

I can't find any data that supports your statement. What a concept. Shutting down food production, manufacturing, service industries is the road to economic success!

If you scroll up to Christine's post, she gives a link to the EU report and includes the numbers.

 

[HI Bill]

I wonder how many lives were saved by keeping hospitals open for other medical needs, and not crashing their economy.

One way of looking at this is in terms of lost person-years. Assuming every 35 lost person-years (2,000 hrs/person/year * 35 years = 70,000 hours) of w#rk = one life, then lots of lives were 'lost'. Assuming those who lost their jobs/businesses will have to w#rk longer, it means they are potentially giving up the most healthy portion of their retirements to w#rk longer to make up for the shortfall. Of course, what will never be known, is what would have happened if we did nothing, and let the virus run its course. The death rates and infection rates would initially be higher, and the hospitals would have run out of capacity, but the end might have come much sooner. Good thing the R0 value wasn't higher.

 

[harllee]

One way of looking at this is in terms of lost person-years. Assuming every 35 lost person-years (2,000 hrs/person/year * 35 years = 70,000 hours) of w#rk = one life, then lots of lives were 'lost'. Assuming those who lost their jobs/businesses will have to w#rk longer, it means they are potentially giving up the most healthy portion of their retirements to w#rk longer to make up for the shortfall. Of course, what will never be known, is what would have happened if we did nothing, and let the virus run its course. The death rates and infection rates would initially be higher, and the hospitals would have run out of capacity, but the end might have come much sooner. Good thing the R0 value wasn't higher.

I agree it is bad that someone might have to work more years but at least more people are alive and healthy because of the actions that were taken. It is impossible to tell what would have happened if we had not done the lock downs but probably many more lives would have been lost and many more people would have been sick. One fact that I don't see much discussion is that many younger people (under age 60) who get the virus are being left with possibly permanent health problems--especially lung problems. I know 2 people-- one around 40 and one around 50-- who had "mild" cases and now are having significant lung problems that might be permanent. If we had not had the lock down I wonder how many more young people would have lung damage.

 

[HI Bill]

I agree it is bad that someone might have to work more years but at least more people are alive and healthy because of the actions that were taken. It is impossible to tell what would have happened if we had not done the lock downs but probably many more lives would have been lost and many more people would have been sick. One fact that I don't see much discussion is that many younger people (under age 60) who get the virus are being left with possibly permanent health problems--especially lung problems. I know 2 people-- one around 40 and one around 50-- who had "mild" cases and now are having significant lung problems that might be permanent. If we had not had the lock down I wonder how many more young people would have lung damage.

I agree, except for the impact on many small, medium, and large business owners. They are losing businesses, the potential to sell those businesses, and are having to lay off employees. I'm guessing a large percentage of former retail and restaurants will close permanently. While new restaurants will eventually replace the closed ones, retail (which was already on the way down) will not recover to pre-COVID levels. Pluses and minuses. I'm fortunate to have maintained my j#b, and have not suffered any loss from COVID to date, except for missing diving and the ocean, and a remaining $300K portfolio loss. So, personally, selfishly, I'm glad we shut down. We should have done it one or two months earlier, and we could have nearly stopped the spread worldwide. As it is, the economic cost (which also has social costs) will continue...for those who lost businesses, it's not about just working longer...it's about starting over, if that's even possible. I can't imagine having a business for 20+ years, and losing it to the shutdown. Many AirB&B and VRBO folks are in this place right now.

 

[aiken]

This is still evolving, and we don’t have enough information to draw specific conclusions. Until we do, why not knock off the snark and sarcasm. It doesn’t help or contribute to thoughtful dialog.

With all due respect, I stand by my comments. When you shut down an economy, it has a cascading effect that reduces GDP, puts more people out of work, and increases the likelihood of business failures. It has been shown those negative economic effects also affect the health and welfare of human beings.



For someone to say, in effect, that there's no adverse impact of shutting down an economy is ludicrous.

 

[harllee]

I agree, except for the impact on many small, medium, and large business owners. They are losing businesses, the potential to sell those businesses, and are having to lay off employees. I'm guessing a large percentage of former retail and restaurants will close permanently. While new restaurants will eventually replace the closed ones, retail (which was already on the way down) will not recover to pre-COVID levels. Pluses and minuses. I'm fortunate to have maintaned my j#b, and have not suffered any loss from COVID to date, except for missing diving and the ocean. So, personally, selfishly, I'm glad we shut down. We should have done it one or two months earlier, and we could have nearly stopped the spread worldwide. As it is, the economic cost (which also has social costs) will continue...for those who lost businesses, it's not about just working longer...it's about starting over, if that's even possible.

I do feel very bad about the lost businesses. I am doing what I can to help the restaurants--eating take out a couple of times week. I hope they make it. As for retail stores and malls, I think many these were on their way to anyway, the shut downs just accelerated it. Who shopped in JC Penney anyway? Last time I went in one it was like a morgue.

 

[gwraigty]

I do feel very bad about the lost businesses. I am doing what I can to help the restaurants--eating take out a couple of times week. I hope they make it. As for retail stores and malls, I think many these were on their way to anyway, the shut downs just accelerated it. Who shopped in JC Penney anyway? Last time I went in one it was like a morgue.

DD was able to get some outfits she needed for work at Penney's. As I recall, we were far from the only ones in the store. Definitely not a morgue.

 

[teejayevans]

Actually, Sweden isn't looking good. Their death per million is pretty high (in 6th place among all the nations with population > 1 million) and it will only get worse from there. If I am 80 years old living in a Swedish senior center, I'd be hopping mad at their government for picking a strategy that sacrifices the old for the young (who probably paid far less tax than someone who retired from work).
There are many nations who are beating or have beaten the COVID 19 threat: Australia, Taiwan, Israel, Korea, Austria, Greece, China, New Zealand, Vietnam, ..., and many more. Sweden isn't anywhere near the list.

I’ll withhold judgement until it’s over. I don’t believe we have accurate data. If someone only gets a mild case it goes unreported.
If a 94 year with a number of health issues dies because the virus was the last straw, should we really count that?
I expected it would look worst at the start, the question is what are results after 2 years, not 2 months.

 

[robnplunder]

While it will undoubtedly get worse, we don't have any idea where along their curve they are. They may reach R0<1 long before some other countries, and come out with fewer deaths per million than many countries who appear to be in better shape at the moment. It could easily be a year before we know who fared better than who...

My point is that Sweden's strategy is not a successful one and it will never be b/c of its high death per million rates. They are a wealthy nation and could have done a lot better than other countries that have very little options. I think they got caught unprepared and picked an option that can save their face. Save the economy? EU/the world is a "global" economy and I can't see how it can come out unscathed alone.

 

[Midpack]

My point is that Sweden's strategy is not a successful one and it will never be b/c of its high death per million rates. They are a wealthy nation and could have done a lot better than other countries that have very little options. I think they got caught unprepared and picked an option that can save their face. Save the economy? EU/the world is a "global" economy and I can't see how it can come out unscathed alone.

You may be right based on early indications. Not to be snarky but how do you know what the final deaths per million of all countries will be? Many bonafide experts are warning about second and third waves, notably in lockdown countries when they gradually reopen. We also don’t know how rigorous each countries citizens will be in the long run if necessary. Sweden may peak long before some countries in which case other countries death counts will continue to rise long after Sweden, and surpass them?

And as others have noted, so far Sweden looks pretty good. They are higher than nearby neighbors but lower than most large EU counties with much less disruption. It remains to be seen whether they are better able to save their bars, restaurants, and hotels than others that shutdown.

Just saying we don’t know yet, and probably won’t for a long time.

 

[mpeirce]

DD was able to get some outfits she needed for work at Penney's. As I recall, we were far from the only ones in the store. Definitely not a morgue.

And around here at least they always seemed to be doing a decent business.

They also have a good big and tall department for men (most of the big and tall departments focus on big and I need the tall part). I will miss them if they disappear.

 

[Christine]

You may be right based on early indications. Not to be snarky but how do you know what the final deaths per million of all countries will be? Many bonafide experts are warning about second and third waves, notably in lockdown countries when they gradually reopen. We also don’t know how rigorous each countries citizens will be in the long run if necessary. Sweden may peak long before some countries in which case other countries death counts will continue to rise long after Sweden, and surpass them?

And as others have noted, so far Sweden looks pretty good. They are higher than nearby neighbors but lower than most large EU counties with much less disruption. It remains to be seen whether they are better able to save their bars, restaurants, and hotels than others that shutdown.

Just saying we don’t know yet, and probably won’t for a long time.

I agree that nobody knows.



But since February my country have upgraded hospitals and drilled people into being careful. And I belive most countries has done this. So if we get a second wave I hope it will not be as lethal as the first one. Nursing homes, shops and services wlll close faster if that happens. My country will do what it takes to keep the infamous R number below 1.


Because of this I would be surprised if Swedens neighbouring countries would ramp up to match the Swedish infection rate.


We have also flattened the curve much more than Sweden. And can do it again. So to match the number of infections/deaths of Sweden we must fail to make vaccines, fail to make drugs that help infected people and fail to make the virus die out by getting the infection rate way down. I hope so many fails are highly unlikely.

 

[gwraigty]

And around here at least they always seemed to be doing a decent business.

They also have a good big and tall department for men (most of the big and tall departments focus on big and I need the tall part). I will miss them if they disappear.

I sympathize with you. DS is 6 ft. 4 in. and skinny as a rail. He's had some success buying pants through Amazon. JCP used to be one of my go to stores for clothing for myself, mainly because of their lower pricing on some of the exact same brands and styles as other stores.

 

[harllee]

The JC Penney near me (in a large mall) is closed now. The problem I had with it is that there was no staff anywhere to be found if you needed assistance or wanted to check out. Also the stock appeared depleted last time I went and in general the whole store seemed disorganized and dirty. I saw no other customers in the whole store and a few months later it closed.

 

[Midpack]

What does this have to do with Sweden’s coronavirus response? Maybe start another thread for this?

And around here at least they always seemed to be doing a decent business.

They also have a good big and tall department for men (most of the big and tall departments focus on big and I need the tall part). I will miss them if they disappear.

I sympathize with you. DS is 6 ft. 4 in. and skinny as a rail. He's had some success buying pants through Amazon. JCP used to be one of my go to stores for clothing for myself, mainly because of their lower pricing on some of the exact same brands and styles as other stores.

The JC Penney near me (in a large mall) is closed now. The problem I had with it is that there was no staff anywhere to be found if you needed assistance or wanted to check out. Also the stock appeared depleted last time I went and in general the whole store seemed disorganized and dirty. I saw no other customers in the whole store and a few months later it closed.

 

[gwraigty]

What does this have to do with Sweden’s coronavirus response? Maybe start another thread for this?

My apologies. Please don't blame mpeirce. I'll try not to add to the diversions and distractions. It started a little further back than you quoted.

Back on topic, I admit I haven't been following Sweden's situation all that closely. It's not that I'm not interested. I hope it all works out as well as possible, for them, and for all of us. I may take a more microscopic interest in their situation if theirs is seen as a model of success for the US to follow going forward. How closely are any of our decision makers following Sweden's situation?

 

[lordjust]

My point is that Sweden's strategy is not a successful one and it will never be b/c of its high death per million rates. They are a wealthy nation and could have done a lot better than other countries that have very little options. I think they got caught unprepared and picked an option that can save their face. Save the economy? EU/the world is a "global" economy and I can't see how it can come out unscathed alone.

We wont know for some time.. The immunologist that did make the decision for sweden (he is also part of the WHO) said that he regretted not blocking off Swedens long term care facilities sooner (e.g where the most at risk are housed all together).

He was hoping for herd immunity and the media is reporting that those numbers are low... which is discouraging. Their steps were very interesting in terms of how they enabled social distancing and who enforced such actions. Also an item of note, those that are healthier (lower BMI) are less at risk. Americans are of a higher BMI on average, hence, at higher risk. Swedes are very active.

I hope their decision is successful because we are not done seeing further pandemics. This will help in the future to determine what actions countries take.

 

[robnplunder]

You may be right based on early indications. Not to be snarky but how do you know what the final deaths per million of all countries will be?

No doubt that there will be other countries with true death per million is higher than Sweden's. That does not make Sweden a success story. I am pointing this out to people who are claiming Sweden's strategy as a success (or will be one when all things are said and done). To me, that's like Sweden losing a soccer match to Brazil 5:2 and claiming victory because the goal deficit was only 3. And I will point out again that there are now growing number of nations which beat or beating the COVID 19 with far less death-per-million rate than Sweden has now.

I have been tracking COVID 19 very closely since it broke out in Wuhan in January. Despite what many world politicians claim, China has announced/reported many warning signs that was plenty enough for other nations to prepare including Sweden. Countries like Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam went to work almost immediately. Others waited until it was too late. Then to use a "herd immunity" strategy ... well, that's a crime and shame in my book.

 

[lordjust]

No doubt that there will be other countries with true death per million is higher than Sweden's. That does not make Sweden a success story. I am pointing this out to people who are claiming Sweden's strategy as a success (or will be one when all things are said and done). To me, that's like Sweden losing a soccer match to Brazil 5:2 and claiming victory because the goal deficit was only 3. And I will point out again that there are now growing number of nations which beat or beating the COVID 19 with far less death-per-million rate than Sweden has now.

I have been tracking COVID 19 very closely since it broke out in Wuhan in January. Despite what many world politicians claim, China has announced/reported many warning signs that was plenty enough for other nations to prepare including Sweden. Countries like Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam went to work almost immediately. Others waited until it was too late. Then to use a "herd immunity" strategy ... well, that's a crime and shame in my book.

You dont believe herd immunity is a viable strategy? Do you believe a vaccine will be created for a virus that is similar to a cold/flu that is currently only 30% effective (each year)? I think you should go back and review what exactly was said by China and the WHO. Specifically around human to human contagion as well as when it began. There are indications that the timeline started in Oct/Nov in China.

Jan 14
"Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in #Wuhan, #China"

 

[robnplunder]

You dont believe herd immunity is a viable strategy? Do you believe a vaccine will be created for a virus that is similar to a cold/flu that is currently only 30% effective (each year)? I think you should go back and review what exactly was said by China and the WHO. Specifically around human to human contagion as well as when it began. There are indications that the timeline started in Oct/Nov in China.

Jan 14
"Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in #Wuhan, #China"

The vaccine will be there. It is not rocket science and many companies are already claiming positive results. I believe it will be there well before Sweden reaches herd immunity (if that even works).

I am not defending China's early response to the virus and their number hiding games. But after all hell broke loose, they were reporting relevant information for the world to take note. For example, they announced that the virus was aerosol sometime in February (IIRC). Some world leaders were still arguing wearing mask does not help well into May.

 

[sengsational]

With an effective vaccine, along with manufacturing and distribution supporting billions of doses, that happens in a year or so, then Sweden's idea might look like a bad move. But that's a lot of "if's".



If the situation remains as it is now, where the percentage of people that perish isn't affected much by the remedies at hand, and if survivability by country is uniform, all countries will come out the other side with similar loss fraction... it's just a matter of when.

 

[BigNick]

And as others have noted, so far Sweden looks pretty good. They are higher than nearby neighbors but lower than most large EU counties with much less disruption. It remains to be seen whether they are better able to save their bars, restaurants, and hotels than others that shutdown.

Can we agree that if you're going to compare Sweden (population 10 million) with countries with 5-6x greater population then it is reasonable to also compare it with countries of about the same population, or a bit less, say down to 5 million?

In that case:
EU countries with higher death rates than Sweden: Belgium, Spain, Italy, France.
EU countries with lower death rates than Sweden: Netherlands, Ireland, Portugal, Denmark, Austria, Romania, Finland, Hungary, Czechia, Poland, Bulgaria, Greece, Slovakia.

If you like, you can add UK to the first list as being "nearly EU", but I'm then going to add Norway and Switzerland to the second list. The fact is that among *comparably-sized* countries, which do not necessarily have some of the coordination problems that those with 50 million people do, Sweden is the second-worst performer in the world.

Of course, at another level none of this means anything anyway, because testing protocols and cause-of-death certification differ, some countries are further along the curve than others, etc etc. But if you want to argue that Sweden made the right choice, the way to do it would appear to be on the basis that "everyone is going to get the disease anyway", which is at least empirically defensible. The argument that they are someone avoiding basically the same economic and public health catastrophe as everyone else, is not.

 

[harllee]

We really won't know which country made the right choice until a couple of years from now. Personally though I would rather get the virus as late as possible because I believe there are going to eventually be better treatments--vaccines, antivirals, etc.