Sweden’s “Bold Experiment?”

[GravitySucks]

And I'd rather my own personal part of the area under the curve - if it happens- to be as far to the right as possible.

 

[Chuckanut]

The goal is to keep it below 1 obviously. And hoping for a vaccine soonish. But if no vaccine both countries will reach 70% or so infected in tme.

I think that reality needs to be faced for any country to have an effective policy on getting through CV19. We will get through it. How well we get through it depends on how well we can manage the virus until a cure/vaccine/herd-immunity arrives. Trying to prevent CV19 deaths at all costs will end up being at the expense of others and may harm more people than the virus. My 2¢. Take what you wish and leave the rest.

 

[Texas Proud]

I know that people keep saying that in the end they will be able to go back and determine who was right and who was wrong...


But, I disagree.... all countries seem to have a different definition of who died from COVID19 and who did not...


Some countries (Sweden per their reporting) reports anybody that showed any sign of the virus... the US on the other hand only reports people who actually tested positive... so if someone died of it and was not tested... not a death counted..


And then there are the counties that seem to be lying... China for one and from what I read Russia... probably throw in all the communist/dictator counties and a few other...


IOW, we will never really know... just have some data to analyze...

 

[BigNick]

But, I disagree.... all countries seem to have a different definition of who died from COVID19 and who did not...

Hence why age-adjusted all-cause mortality, compared to the average of the past 5 years, is the only valid measure of the excess deaths caused by COVID-19.

That will also include, for example, people who died from other causes while the hospital was full (which to some extent is "caused by C19", a bit like deaths on the ground from a plane crash), and it will remove the problem of people being either counted as dying from C19 when they caught the virus in a palliative care facility a week before their expected death from cancer, or, conversely, people who died at home with heart failure caused by C19 but never got a test.

There have been suggestions that some people have been killed by C19 who would normally have not survived a worse flu season than 2019-2020 was; again, this will all come out in the wash of the comparison with the past 5 years (or 10 years, depending on how extreme a flu season you want to exclude; 1957 was pretty bad). FIREcalc users may recognise the principle here.

 

[donheff]

Hence why age-adjusted all-cause mortality, compared to the average of the past 5 years, is the only valid measure of the excess deaths caused by COVID-19.

...this will all come out in the wash of the comparison with the past 5 years (or 10 years, depending on how extreme a flu season you want to exclude; 1957 was pretty bad). FIREcalc users may recognise the principle here.

+1

 

[Teacher Terry]

Despite not all the state hitting the 14 day mark Nevada is opening some things tomorrow such as restaurants at 50% and salons by appointment only. Should be interesting to see what happens.

 

[LRDave]

Despite not all the state hitting the 14 day mark Nevada is opening some things tomorrow such as restaurants at 50% and salons by appointment only. Should be interesting to see what happens.

In the (apocryphal) Chinese proverb sense......

 

[6miths]

In the (apocryphal) Chinese proverb sense......

 

[Chuckanut]

Today’s WSJ has some stats on the Swedish economy.

Airlines -96%
Hotels -79%
Restaurants -53%
Culture -48%
Retail sales durables -9%
Services -1%
Retail sales consumables +9%

While social distancing and limiting activities are not required, it seems most Swedes are voluntarily doing so. Exports to other countries are dwindling. Needed imports may not be available causing factories and businesses to shut down.

We will see how this ends up.

 

[Christine]

According to Worldometer the situation in Scandinavia is



Sweden 31 new deaths, 384 new cases , 4029 deaths total.

Norway 0 new deaths, 6 *) new cases, 235 deaths total.

Denmark 1 new death, 27 new cases, 563 deaths total.

Finland 1 new death, 20 new cases, 308 deaths total.


*) Worldometer not updated, 6 new cases from: https://www.bt.no/nyheter/innenriks/i/3Jd0RL/siste-nytt-om-korona


Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

 

[harllee]

According to Worldometer the situation in Scandinavia is



Sweden 31 new deaths, 384 new cases , 4029 deaths total.

Norway 0 new deaths, 6 *) new cases, 235 deaths total.

Denmark 1 new death, 27 new cases, 563 deaths total.

Finland 1 new death, 20 new cases, 308 deaths total.


*) Worldometer not updated, 6 new cases from: https://www.bt.no/nyheter/innenriks/i/3Jd0RL/siste-nytt-om-korona


Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Wow so Sweden's "bold" experiment is not turning out so well. Sweden has a population of about 10 million, the other 3 countries have a population of about 5 million each. I wonder if the Swedish people are still in favor of the experiment.

 

[Midpack]

According to Worldometer the situation in Scandinavia is

Sweden 31 new deaths, 384 new cases , 4029 deaths total.

Norway 0 new deaths, 6 *) new cases, 235 deaths total.

Denmark 1 new death, 27 new cases, 563 deaths total.

Finland 1 new death, 20 new cases, 308 deaths total.

Wow so Sweden's "bold" experiment is not turning out so well. Sweden has a population of about 10 million, the other 3 countries have a population of about 5 million each. I wonder if the Swedish people are still in favor of the experiment.

I know our culture can't resist jumping to conclusions these days (like most media outlets), but it's still too soon to know. When the SARS-CoV-2 has fully run it's course (months if not years from now), then we can look at deaths per capita ('herd immunity' is still an open question) AND the impact of the economic fallout that will probably take years to play out. Many people may be underestimating the economic fallout.

Hypothetically is "success" the fewest deaths with a devastating full blown decade long depression better than an average number of deaths and a shallower recession with a quicker recovery? We do not know how this will ultimately play out anywhere.

No two countries are the same, in what their leaders can/not do, and some cultures are more/less receptive anyway. e.g. much of what worked in the more successful countries (Germany, South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan) might not have been acceptable to Americans. As for Sweden, this fairly recent poll is more important than what a bunch of Americans think... https://www.forbes.com/sites/heathe...irus-may-not-be-what-you--think/#583dc7c42464

May 14: A poll in Dagens Nyheter showed 70% of the population had a high degree of trust in Sweden’s approach. Moreover, trust in Sweden's public health agency has increased since the coronavirus pandemic began.

It's easy to find answers to questions like that.

 

[Sunset]

Wow so Sweden's "bold" experiment is not turning out so well. Sweden has a population of about 10 million, the other 3 countries have a population of about 5 million each. I wonder if the Swedish people are still in favor of the experiment.

So if we had done the same (totally ignoring all sorts of other factors including that we are not Swedish). The death toll here would be ~132K instead of 100K.

I wonder if the rate will change (deaths/million population).

 

[Rianne]

So if we had done the same (totally ignoring all sorts of other factors including that we are not Swedish). The death toll here would be ~132K instead of 100K.

I wonder if the rate will change (deaths/million population).

So far, it's not over yet.

 

[Winemaker]

Michigan has the same population roughly of Sweden, and Michigan has 54,000+cases, and 5228 deaths, so we have a long time to determine the final right decision.

 

[harllee]

So if we had done the same (totally ignoring all sorts of other factors including that we are not Swedish). The death toll here would be ~132K instead of 100K.

I wonder if the rate will change (deaths/million population).

But what we have done in the U.S. is probably the worst of all--we did not lock down long enough or strictly enough in many places to call it a lock down.

 

[Dtail]

But what we have done in the U.S. is probably the worst of all--we did not lock down long enough or strictly enough in many places to call it a lock down.

Because the lockdown started too late.

 

[mpeirce]

But what we have done in the U.S. is probably the worst of all--we did not lock down long enough or strictly enough in many places to call it a lock down.

Didn’t we “flatten the curve” enough that the hospitals were not overwhelmed?

I’d say the stay at home recommendations where a success in that regard.

New criteria a simple moving the goalposts.

 

[harllee]

Didn’t we “flatten the curve” enough that the hospitals were not overwhelmed?

I’d say the stay at home recommendations where a success in that regard.

New criteria a simple moving the goalposts.

Most hospitals were not overwhelmed with the exception of NYC (so far). But we have too many deaths. I think if we had locked down earlier, especially in nursing homes, and if we had done adequate testing and tracing we would have far fewer deaths. The jury is of course still out on how many deaths we will end up with. I am concerned we are going to see many more deaths.

 

[audreyh1]

Where there were early large outbreaks the hospitals were swamped. Albany GA hospital was hit pretty hard.

But if the steps hadn’t been taken, especially banning large group gatherings, there would have been many more swamped hospitals. We dodged the initial bullet and didn’t go through the Italy nightmare. It could have been way way worse.

 

[braumeister]

So if we had done the same (totally ignoring all sorts of other factors including that we are not Swedish). The death toll here would be ~132K instead of 100K.

From everything I've seen, it probably already is.

 

[sengsational]

It's going to be a long time before the fat lady sings. IMO, if an effective remedy to the disease, not an effective way to limit spread, but actual way to keep people from dying (which would include a vaccine, but also prophylaxis and treatments that reduce severity), then the less restrictive countries will come out worse off. Not because they had any kind of hospital overrun situation, but because those that were infected early did not have the benefit of the more recently discovered remedies. If we "knew" there would be no remedies, putting it behind you would be a sound decision because, again my relatively uninformed opinion, hospitals really don't add much to actual survivability due to not having much to offer beyond getting the only mildly beneficial current treatments (which you can probably get via telemedicine). Of course if you don't have anyone to help you with food and getting the medicine to you, a hospital is helpful. Uber meds?

 

[Big_Hitter]

Wow so Sweden's "bold" experiment is not turning out so well.

gee, go figure

 

[audreyh1]

I think the hospitals are learning how to help the people hit hardest - oxygen, steroids to combat autoimmune overreaction if needed, many are using large supplement doses and other medications, and especially monitoring to detect new problems and to adjust treatments as needed.

 

[Chuckanut]

IMHO, any discussion of how this all turns out needs to include the health problems and deaths caused by the economic collapse we are currently experiencing. If Sweden can limit that damage they might, just maybe, come out ahead. But, that is a big IF for a relatively small country in a much larger world economy.

My 2¢. Take what you wish and leave the rest.