The Electric Vehicle Thread

[Midpack]

As my cheap VW Jetta nears its end of life I wondered if there will ever be cheap, used EV’s?

The battery replacement would seem to be a floor to the price.

Too far gone and you need to buy a new one. Still good and the value will increase the price.

Useable Sub $10k Used EV? maybe never.

You can definitely buy a used Nissan Leaf or a Chevy Spark for under $10K now. Up the budget to $15K and you can buy a used BMW i3 now, along with a few scarcer EV makes/models. There will definitely be more as the years pass, like the Chevy Bolts.

I’m not sure about older EVs, but you can expect 200-300,000 miles on a battery if not more on late model EVs. At 10K miles/year that’s a 20-30 year life before battery replacement. Batteries last a lot longer than many skeptics realize. It’s not quite the same, but hybrids have been around for more than 20 years and those batteries have lasted far beyond their 8 yr 100K warranties in most cases, also longer than their early skeptics. We sold an 11 year old Camry Hybrid with 116K miles on it, and got just as much in trade as a comparable ICE Camry.

 

[MC Rider]

You can definitely buy a used Nissan Leaf or a Chevy Spark for under $10K now. Up the budget to $15K and you can buy a used BMW i3 now, along with a few scarcer EV makes/models. There will definitely be more as the years pass, like the Chevy Bolts.........

There sure are. I guess if I was shopping for one I should not go beyond 50 or 60 miles from home. If the range is listed at 73 miles, you might not make it home.

 

[Midpack]

There sure are. I guess if I was shopping for one I should not go beyond 50 or 60 miles from home. If the range is listed at 73 miles, you might not make it home.

That range was only at the beginning 12 years ago, they get much more range now. And the discussion was in reference to poorer buyers having EVs...

The Leaf's range on a full charge has been increased gradually from 117 km (73 miles) to 364 km (226 miles) (EPA rated), due to the use of a larger battery pack along with several minor improvements.

 

[MC Rider]

I don't feel poor, but not going to spend $50k on a car. I confess to sorting my search by lowest price first. Which brought up a lot of 2011 Leafs. I was just curious what you might get for under $10k. A 200+ mile range would be a lot better and useful.

 

[captain3d]

Thanks for all the answers. Yes old with good range is what I was thinking about. I am a car cheapskate who has never spent more than $10k on used cars. And only have a single car.

To get the functionality of the Jetta wagon space capacity and range at used ice prices seems a way off.

Actually finding any wagon these days is almost impossible

 

[explanade]

Listened to a podcast from The Economist, talking about the Chinese EV industry.

They've made great strides in build and design quality. Younger generations of Chinese are buying these Chinese brands, which haven't been around that long.

But their parents never would consider these Chinese brands, instead they bought European and some other imports. VW has done well in China, making like 50% of its profits.

But now they're going to have to really compete in that market with the rise of these home-grown brands.

Even more, several Chinese EV makers plan to push into Europe and even the US.

One analyst said that Europe and US have all these deadlines when they will stop allowing new ICE cars to be sold in their markets. These deadlines are about 10-15 years off but this guy thinks that US and European manufacturers can't meet the demand in their local markets because Chinese have locked up a lot of the battery and motor supply chains.

So the EU and US markets will turn to some extent to these Chinese brands.

 

[Koolau]

If you think a $10k used EV will never get here, you're going to be surprised. I sold my 10 year old Model S that had 89% of the original battery left for $20K last year when used car prices were still elevated. In a few short years, much more modestly-priced EVs like the Model 3 will be approaching the decade mark.

My prediction? Only the well-to-do will have gasoline-powered vehicles that they drive manually on the weekends. Kind of like how only the privileged can afford to own horses. They'll have to be able to afford to have gasoline delivered to their property and employ a full- or part-time mechanic to keep up with the maintenance schedule for their stable of cars.

Heh, heh, I wish I could live long enough to take the other side of that "bet." ICE cars replaced horses because there was a VAST disparity in the utility between the two modes of transportation. Easiest example is the semi tractor trailer that hauls 80,000 lbs of stuff. Even a 20 mule team couldn't do that - and that doesn't even consider the disparity in speed. Horses and ICE are apples and oranges. ICE and EV are Red Delicious vs Granny Smith. I love 'em both for different reasons but they're differences are much less than apples and oranges.

What's true is that an EV can do just about anything an ICE can do. So far, hauling much is probably it's biggest constraint vs ICE. As EVs becomes more economical AND convenient, and when battery tech improves quite a bit, EVs - left to their own advantages - will eventually supplant most ICE cars. My belief is that will take a lot longer than most of our lives here. BUT, I've been wrong before (just ask DW.) So YMMV.

 

[JoeWras]

As EVs becomes more economical AND convenient, and when battery tech improves quite a bit, EVs - left to their own advantages - will eventually supplant most ICE cars. My belief is that will take a lot longer than most of our lives here. BUT, I've been wrong before (just ask DW.) So YMMV.

Ha ha. Well, a lot of us pundits weren't wrong about Self Driving Cars NOT being pervasive in 5 years ... as predicted 8 years ago.

We just have to see about the used car market. There is not enough information yet on the experience of owning or buying used a 10+ year old EV car.

Just for fun, here are some 10+ year old EVs for sale near me.

1) 2013 Nissan Leaf. 70k miles. Offered at $9k, original price $30k. Two owners. Seems pretty standard. Offered by a lower tier dealer. https://www.autotrader.com/cars-for-sale/vehicledetails.xhtml?listingId=656137070

2) 2013 Tesla S 4D. 146k miles. Supercharge for life. Offered at $21k private sale. Original price about $72k. Something seems wrong with this. It was one owner, and owner 2 has only had the car 2 months. Flipping? Upset with issues? Who knows. Owner 2 did report some recent repairs such as new A/C. That's common among any brand at 10 years though. https://www.autotrader.com/marketplace/buy/tesla/model-s/2013/5YJSA1AC2DFP10190?listingId=682466335

 

[Fermion]

I would make a guess that we are 20 to 25 years away from having EVs be the dominant vehicle out there. I think they will eventually need to do some sort of cash for ICE thing to get people to trade in their gasoline cars for an EV, but first the charging network has to get MUCH bigger.

Right now there are thousands of locations in just our state where there is a gas station but no charging station for miles around.

 

[joesxm3]

You are probably right that it will take years for EV to be the majority.

But if most people charge at home, you really only need charging stations for long trips and those would be along highways.

 

[Midpack]

The almost never ending debate.

Legacy automakers scoffed at EVs, until they couldn't ignore them anymore - they are all scrambling to come up with EVs they can sell profitably now. They're all wrong?

Those who claim EVs can't succeed until the supercharger network is expanded, seem to ignore the fact that 70-85% of EV owners charge at home unless on a long trip. Yes it's a different story for condo owners, renters etc. - but there are more than enough EV owners with homes to achieve critical mass.

I'll admit I thought autonomous driving tech would be further along by now. That said I have watched dozens of videos from dozens of sources showing the latest Tesla FSD software, and it's pretty amazing. Not perfect, but way closer than anyone else I've seen. Waymo seems to have given up on selling self driving to consumers, with nothing but a geofenced robotaxi network after years of work. I'm not sure where Cruise is headed, also geofenced BTW, but so far it's just another limited robotaxi network. But I don't doubt it will still take many years for autonomous driving to be compelling to the masses.

 

[mpeirce]

So, yeah, I absolutely agree that a crisis in transportation is coming.

I expect to see more lower income folks driving scooters rather than used cars.

There are lots of countries where this is the case today. Not that I’d want to live in those countries.

 

[JoeWras]

I would make a guess that we are 20 to 25 years away from having EVs be the dominant vehicle out there. I think they will eventually need to do some sort of cash for ICE thing to get people to trade in their gasoline cars for an EV...

Cash for ICE clunkers would be generous. They could put the squeeze on much easier and do it right away.

How? Simply declare that all cars must pass OBD II emissions testing. This would take out millions of cars.

Of course, not all states have inspections. My state only requires emissions tests in certain counties. There is a little Fed-State tension in this idea, but it has never stopped politicians before (see the 55 mph speed limit, for example).

 

[Popeye]

Cash for ICE clunkers would be generous. They could put the squeeze on much easier and do it right away.

How? Simply declare that all cars must pass OBD II emissions testing. This would take out millions of cars.

Of course, not all states have inspections. My state only requires emissions tests in certain counties. There is a little Fed-State tension in this idea, but it has never stopped politicians before (see the 55 mph speed limit, for example).

I think you’re getting closer to what we will see. Governments around the world have decided that Ice cars are the spawn of Satan. I can’t see them waiting 30 years. In New York State they just banned natural gas hookups in new construction.

I will admit my interest is piqued with the tax credits and the Tesla price cuts. I could charge in the driveway plus there are superchargers within 5 miles of my house and family’s house I visit. The three semi regular destinations I might frequent within 3-4 hours drive all have superchargers both there and along the way. I think my state even offer a tax credit this year.

I checked insurance and it would be bumped by $95. Meanwhile the value of my current vehicle is within 10-15% of what I paid three years ago. My only impediment may be realizing extra income to incur enough tax liability while not losing all the ACA tax credits. It’s a real balancing act there.

There may not be a better time to make the switch. At some point they’ll move from the carrot to the stick.

 

[Midpack]

Any of you Model S or X owners who care to share your actual experience going to the stalkless UI (apart from the yoke discussion)?

I can find lots of opinions from people with no first hand experience, some pro, mostly con.

I am only interested in those who have actually had enough hands on experience to speak to what it's like with no stalks, everything on the wheel (or touchscreen). I have found YT videos from open minded drivers who think the positives outweigh the negatives once you get used to it, a matter of days. None of them claim it's a revolutionary improvement, just a small net positive. And of course I have found YT videos that claim Tesla is just saving money even if customers hate the changes (some closed minded averse to change as a first response to any change).

 

[ken830]

Heh, heh, I wish I could live long enough to take the other side of that "bet." ICE cars replaced horses because there was a VAST disparity in the utility between the two modes of transportation. Easiest example is the semi tractor trailer that hauls 80,000 lbs of stuff. Even a 20 mule team couldn't do that - and that doesn't even consider the disparity in speed. Horses and ICE are apples and oranges. ICE and EV are Red Delicious vs Granny Smith. I love 'em both for different reasons but they're differences are much less than apples and oranges.

What's true is that an EV can do just about anything an ICE can do. So far, hauling much is probably it's biggest constraint vs ICE. As EVs becomes more economical AND convenient, and when battery tech improves quite a bit, EVs - left to their own advantages - will eventually supplant most ICE cars. My belief is that will take a lot longer than most of our lives here. BUT, I've been wrong before (just ask DW.) So YMMV.

Yes, it will take a few more years than the horse-to-car change. I wasn't claiming it is the same, but it will happen. The thing many people don't realize is that the ONLY advantage the ICE has over EV in some limited use-cases (road-tripping convenience) has nothing to do with the vehicle itself -- it's the existence of a dense network of gas stations. But those can and will go away rapidly when they don't make enough profit to sustain themselves. I've made this argument before: when it comes time to replace those expensive underground tanks, they will need to see the trend in profits be stable enough to justify the cost. Gas stations have VERY slim profit margins as it is today. And there's no infrastructure for gasoline delivery to the stations. The supply is trucked in, so the supply can also very quickly be stopped.

Any of you Model S or X owners who care to share your actual experience going to the stalkless UI (apart from the yoke discussion)?

I can find lots of opinions from people with no first hand experience, some pro, mostly con.

I am only interested in those who have actually had enough hands on experience to speak to what it's like with no stalks, everything on the wheel (or touchscreen). I have found YT videos from open minded drivers who think the positives outweigh the negatives once you get used to it, a matter of days. None of them claim it's a revolutionary improvement, just a small net positive.

Lots and lots and "lots of opinions from people with no first hand experience" is EXACTLY what I run into everyday! Anyway, YES! I own a Model X with a stalkless yoke!

My wife wanted to replace our aging Model S, and the only vehicle that fit our use case was the Model X, so the yoke steering was the only option. Before taking delivery, I was a little skeptical of the yoke, but was absolutely sure I would hate the stalklessness. Turns out the yoke isn't too bad in tight turns and great on the highway -- looks great in person too. The lack of stalks turned out to be amazing for turn signal indication and honking, but I think I would still prefer a stalk for wiper controls, although in the last decade, I could count the number of times I've used wipers on two hands.

Pressing the turn signal buttons becomes pretty intuitive within 2 days. It is touch with haptic feedback. The advantage is that the buttons are right by your thumb during all but the most tight turning situations. The advantage for stalks is that the position is always the same even if it's not always within reach without repositioning your hand -- at least you know where you need to reposition the hand.

A good steer-by-wire system with variable steering ratios would eliminate any negatives for turn signal button reach situations and tight turning situations in general. But steer-by-wire systems need to have good force-feedback for a sporty feel, which is still not quite there yet.

Tesla uses the neural network of the Tesla Vision system to turn off the signal when it sees that you've completed a lane change or another turn maneuver like entering the exit lane of a highway where a large wheel-position angle is normally required to trip mechanical systems. This means you no longer need the "tap before the detent 3 blinks" lane change feature, which is sometimes too short and sometimes too long. I liked this auto turn-off behavior so much that I missed it when I drove my Model 3. Thankfully, a few months later, this option to auto-turn-off the turn signals was also rolled out to other Tesla vehicles with stalks. It works nicely there as well.

For the horn, there is a touch button on the right side, but you can just mash the entire right spoke of the yoke (press your entire palm over all the right-side buttons) and the car's firmware will know to honk the horn. Never had a problem with this.

And of course I have found YT videos that claim Tesla is just saving money even if customers hate the changes (some closed minded averse to change as a first response to any change).

The thing with Tesla is that, safety aside, almost everything they do is to save costs -- the brilliant thing is that they almost always find a way to save cost while making the product better. The "better" part is debatable, of course, but I think in the long run, will be proven correct. A dozen years ago, the Model S was introduced with a huge touchscreen not for the sake of having a touchscreen, but because it saved costs and reduced complexity. Sure, there is the obvious dash full of buttons that was eliminated, but even the mechanical lock and latch release lever on the glove box and child safety lock mechanism on the inside of the rear doors were eliminated.

 

[audreyh1]

Any of you Model S or X owners who care to share your actual experience going to the stalkless UI (apart from the yoke discussion)?

I can find lots of opinions from people with no first hand experience, some pro, mostly con.

I am only interested in those who have actually had enough hands on experience to speak to what it's like with no stalks, everything on the wheel (or touchscreen). I have found YT videos from open minded drivers who think the positives outweigh the negatives once you get used to it, a matter of days. None of them claim it's a revolutionary improvement, just a small net positive. And of course I have found YT videos that claim Tesla is just saving money even if customers hate the changes (some closed minded averse to change as a first response to any change).

Stalkless - love it, absolutely love it. It’s super efficient/fast with buttons on the wheel instead. I rented a Y recently and that was the most annoying thing - having to manipulate stalks again.

So I guess for me it’s revolutionary because it requires so much less fiddling around.

I also like swiping the display for going into drive/reverse and most of the time the car guesses the correct direction when you step on the brake in park so you don’t even have to do that. I missed that feature too driving the Y.

Enjoyed renting the Y though - don’t get me wrong. I posted about it on the Model Y questions thread.

 

[Koolau]

We just have to see about the used car market. There is not enough information yet on the experience of owning or buying used a 10+ year old EV car.

If anyone is interested, April's issue of Consumer Reports is a "Cars Only" issue. It covers almost every car being sold in the USA (and I think Canada.) One feature I always like to look at is the "Long Term Reliability" for picking used cars. Unfortunately, they only go back to 2015 this year (although you might interpolate from older issues available at many library reference desks.)

I like the lay out that CR uses. "Best" rating for any particular aspect of reliability is dark green. That means much better than average. As reader reported experiences show issues, the colors go to light green (above average) to yellow (average experience of issues) to light red (below average - aka more reports of problems) to dark red (well below average - aka even more reports of problems. IIRC there are 17 aspects covered (engine, transmission, brakes, body leaks, electrical, etc.)

So, opening the pages, one is often struck that nearly whole pages have the appearance of mostly red. A good example is the page that covers Chevrolet and Ford models. Then there are whole pages which look mostly green such as one showing mostly Toyotas.

Check the relatively few Teslas, it's a mixed bag with quite a mix of green and red. A quick snap shot would suggest to me that with Tesla, the most likely trouble spots are: paint/trim, noises/leaks, body hardware, power equipment, in car electronics for most models. Those Tesla models with good or above average experience are (generally - with exceptions) engine major, engine minor, engine cooling, transmission major, transmission minor, drive system, fuel system, electrical. Most of the other items: Climate control, suspension, brakes, paint/trim, are a mixed bag.

I notice that many of the high scoring Tesla items could be because Teslas don't have them. So far, CR has not developed a special category for EVs to compete against each other, so EV battery is probably under "fuel" system, but I haven't looked to see if that is the case.

Tesla has the unfortunate luck to be right next to Toyota. While the overall mix of colors looks quite good compared to say Buick or Chevy or Ford, because it's next to Toyota, it sticks out as significantly less reliable.

So, all else equal, I'd not be too concerned about buying a used Tesla if the price were right EXCEPT there's that pesky battery pack which is virtually the only thing that matters - and so far, CR doesn't rate its reliability.

Most of the other EVs are covered as well, but I'm lazy this morning.

Check out the April issue of CR at the Library because YMMV.

 

[Koolau]

You are probably right that it will take years for EV to be the majority.

But if most people charge at home, you really only need charging stations for long trips and those would be along highways.

I think we've covered this before but IIRC more than half of people live in housing that is not presently conducive to home charging (think apartment and condo buildings.)

I checked on Hawaii and the numbers are even worse with something like 60% of people living in condos or apartments. We've attempted (by we, I mean local gummint) to force condos/apartment to install chargers in parking lots. So far, there is no enforcement so there are no chargers in parking lots for condos and apartments (at least not to my knowledge.)

Easy/fast charging would seem to me to be the biggest issue (unless it's the price) for EVs.

Everything I see suggests that EVs are as good or even better than ICE cars, so it's the peripheral issues that could stunt the growth. YMMV

 

[Koolau]

I expect to see more lower income folks driving scooters rather than used cars.

There are lots of countries where this is the case today. Not that I’d want to live in those countries.

We have ideal weather for scooters year round. I hate them as they pollute with unburned hydrocarbons, CO and oxides of nitrogen at 10s or even hundreds of times what a car pollutes these nasties. Not to mention they stink - literally. These are the pollutants that cause smog, asthma, respiratory diseases, etc. Many scooters are totally unregulated and unregistered. They are loud and their drivers take advantage of their size and zip in and out of traffic lanes. They also experience a much higher rate of injuries and deaths in traffic compared to their overall proportion of the motor vehicular mix. SO replacing an ICE car which can't meet car pollution standards any more and then replacing it with a scooter is the wrong move EXCEPT that a scooter does put out perhaps a fourth of the CO2 of a clunker ICE. YMMV

 

[Sunset]

I expect to see more lower income folks driving scooters rather than used cars.

There are lots of countries where this is the case today. Not that I’d want to live in those countries.

I think an electric bike can compete with a scooter, certainly cheaper to drive and pretty low cost.

 

[2HOTinPHX]

I saw this on the road here in Phoenix. Probably fun to ride. I was in our Bolt EUV at the time.

 

[Koolau]

I saw this on the road here in Phoenix. Probably fun to ride. I was in our Bolt EUV at the time. View attachment 45978

Scooters of any persuasion scare me in Honolulu traffic. I'm thinking Phoenix might be worse. But I sure do wish folks would switch from 2 cycle scooters to electric scooters. Less noise, no tail-pipe pollution, easier to scrape up after collision.

 

[eytonxav]

IIRC, a recently passed Texas bill has new fees for EVs that will go into effect on Sept 1 and contribute to the state's funds for road maintenance. I wonder how plug in hybrids get treated?

 

[REWahoo]

IIRC, a recently passed Texas bill has new fees for EVs that will go into effect on Sept 1 and contribute to the state's funds for road maintenance. I wonder how plug in hybrids get treated?

No added fee for plug in hybrids.

The gov signed the law on 5/13 and it goes into effect on 9/1. It adds a $200 fee to the annual registration of EVs, defined as "...a motor vehicle that has a gross weight of 10,000 pounds or less and uses electricity as its only source of motor power."

Note the law also excludes electric powered motorcycles, mopeds, etc.