The Electric Vehicle Thread

[oneill225]

I agree in principle. In reality, in today's climate the "die-hard" greens will not cave UNTIL blackouts and crazy prices are routine. Then, they'll become almost as rabid as us moderately greens. Unfortunately, that will mean a prolonged period of travail while we all adjust. Who knows? At some point, driving electric might be MORE expensive (for fuel) than an ICE but YMMV.

I am hopeful that those who will accept blackouts and crazy prices are a vocal minority of the population (located mostly in CA). They will not prevail until energy storage is figured out.

 

[ERD50]

I'm sure it [the chip shortage] is real. The question is whether it is a sufficient excuse to account for the drop in sales or just a convenient way to distract from other issues like poor management and weak products. Time will tell. .....

Sorry, but that's still twisted, tortured logic, and I already addressed it. If the drop in sales was due to lack of demand, we'd see prices dropping, not rising.

Now, you can make the case that relying on legacy products was a management mistake, but I think that's a bit of Monday Morning Quarterbacking. As some of these articles point out, cars are made to last for a decade or more, once they have these chips designed and qualified there's a lot of inertia to keep with what works. And a chip designed 15~20 years ago to be robust, was not going to use the cutting edge tech at the time, they would use something with a proven track record.

... Tesla adapted and overcame. Here is just one way they outperformed the legacy ICE makers:

https://www.pcmag.com/news/tesla-copes-with-chip-shortages-by-writing-more-software ...

It's not apples-apples - Tesla is not dealing with legacy designs in the same way the legacy car makers are. There are pros/cons to that for each side. Tesla has done some very smart things, and I hope that pushes all car makers to up their game. This looks like an area where Tesla may have an advantage. Competition is good.

... Whether you love Tesla or not, they appear to be pulling away from the legacy car makers.

Has nothing to do with love/hate, facts are facts. Legacy car makers are raising prices because demand outstrips supply for their cars. We'll see how this plays out. But the people I know who were in a position to have to replace a car did not go out and buy an EV, despite the higher prices and lack of choice in the legacy cars. While EVs are improving, EVs still are not for everybody.

-ERD50

 

[TriumphTR3fan]

There has been a lot of comments about Tesla, but there are other companies bringing products to market. One of them is Rivian which is focusing on adventure/off roading. They have a very interesting truck that is just being released. The attached video has an uplanned event, a flat tire from a damaged side wall. The truck comes with a full size tire which is unusual for today’s vehicles. The detail Rivian put into jacking the truck surprised me. It’s a little long at 21 minutes but the flat tire starts around 6:55 into the video. There are other interesting features such as an optional cook top & tent system.

https://youtu.be/KGqexebCcUo

 

[ERD50]

There has been a lot of comments about Tesla, but there are other companies bringing products to market. One of them is Rivian which is focusing on adventure/off roading. They have a very interesting truck that is just being released. The attached video has an uplanned event, a flat tire from a damaged side wall. The truck comes with a full size tire which is unusual for today’s vehicles. The detail Rivian put into jacking the truck surprised me. It’s a little long at 21 minutes but the flat tire starts around 6:55 into the video. There are other interesting features such as an optional cook top & tent system.

https://youtu.be/KGqexebCcUo

That's impressive. Though I can't imagine paying $75K and running it through rocks like that! I'm clearly not the target market!

It will be interesting to see how deliveries go compared to Cybertruck. And it looks like Rivian is also making Amazon delivery vehicles at the old Mitsubishi plant in IL.

The details for changing the flat were interesting, but I was really hoping to see a motor driven jack screw just come down right out of the frame! They do seem to have some nice details.

-ERD50

 

[oneill225]

Sorry, but that's still twisted, tortured logic, and I already addressed it. If the drop in sales was due to lack of demand, we'd see prices dropping, not rising.

Now, you can make the case that relying on legacy products was a management mistake, but I think that's a bit of Monday Morning Quarterbacking. As some of these articles point out, cars are made to last for a decade or more, once they have these chips designed and qualified there's a lot of inertia to keep with what works. And a chip designed 15~20 years ago to be robust, was not going to use the cutting edge tech at the time, they would use something with a proven track record.




It's not apples-apples - Tesla is not dealing with legacy designs in the same way the legacy car makers are. There are pros/cons to that for each side. Tesla has done some very smart things, and I hope that pushes all car makers to up their game. This looks like an area where Tesla may have an advantage. Competition is good.




Has nothing to do with love/hate, facts are facts. Legacy car makers are raising prices because demand outstrips supply for their cars. We'll see how this plays out. But the people I know who were in a position to have to replace a car did not go out and buy an EV, despite the higher prices and lack of choice in the legacy cars. While EVs are improving, EVs still are not for everybody.

-ERD50

Sounds like you are on top of it.

How long before the legacy makers catch Tesla in the EV market?

 

[Car-Guy]

EVs still are not for everybody.

-ERD50

Now there's a statement I can agree with!

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

Today's discussion proves once again that there are those that are having a hard time with the gradual elimination of ICE cars.

GM sales down 33% domestically. Ouch.

Tesla sales up 73% yoy.

But it's ok, because I know some people who didn't buy an EV. I'm sure the CEO of GM feels much better knowing this.

Hilarious.

 

[Midpack]

Today's discussion proves once again that there are those that are having a hard time with the gradual elimination of ICE cars.

GM sales down 33% domestically. Ouch.

Tesla sales up 73% yoy.

But it's ok, because I know some people who didn't buy an EV. I'm sure the CEO of GM feels much better knowing this.

Hilarious.

Proves? I am not a GM fan by any means, but I think it’s largely a result of managing the chip shortage, Tesla has been better than many carmakers at adapting. Tesla is expanding globally, so lots more upside than incumbents.

 

[Car-Guy]

Today's discussion proves once again that there are those that are having a hard time with the gradual elimination of ICE cars.

I resemble that remark.... As I've written here before in great detail, I know ICE vehicles are doomed, and why.... Not much sense in disputing it. But for me, at my age, it's a moot point...

Until then, I'm loving my new ICE ~11 mpg truck.

 

[Texas Proud]

Interesting comments.... I will add some upon some of what I saw on TV and read...


EVs are not going to be a small incremental process as some here are saying... the announcements from the major auto manufacturers say they will be introducing a huge number of models over the next few years... and most will be all electric something in the 2030 or so range...


Someone on the TV said that there should be no incentive for buyers of electric cars anymore as they are now seen as the future and will soon be the only option (hope some still have hybrids)...


The HUGE problem that is talked about all the time is the lack of electrical production and the lack of a grid that can handle the demand that will come... just think how much we need if 10 million cars are charging instead of a few hundred thousand in a region... (Cali has 15 mill cars vs 425k EVs)



I read an article that in England they had a mismatch of charging stations and car ownership... IOW, they built charging stations where the cars were registered and not where they were located...

 

[ERD50]

...How long before the legacy makers catch Tesla in the EV market?

I have no idea. And maybe by that time it's not Tesla that needs to be caught. We are still early in the game if we assume ICE is dead (that's not going to happen overnight, we will still be able to find gas stations in 10 years). And it's hard for me to picture any one company (even Tesla) dominating the EV market as it grows.

Today's discussion proves once again that there are those that are having a hard time with the gradual elimination of ICE cars. ...

That's a big, unfounded projection. The legacy car makers got caught by this chip shortage. Maybe they screwed up and should have anticipated it and been prepared.

That has nothing to do with "having a hard time with the gradual elimination of ICE cars.". Clearly, EVs will gain as cost comes down. But it will be a long time before gas cars are "eliminated". As we've pointed out before, there are obstacles for a significant part of the population. People who don't have easy access to charging (apartment dwellers, homes w/o garages who park on the street), and those who routinely need to drive long trips in short times. Yes, infrastructure can be brought in, range and charge times will improve. But the key is "gradual elimination". I agree that the shift will be gradual. Elimination - very hard to say. Heck, people still ride horses, some even walk, and that's been around for a very long time!

-ERD50

 

[oneill225]

Clearly, EVs will gain as cost comes down. But it will be a long time before gas cars are "eliminated". As we've pointed out before, there are obstacles for a significant part of the population. People who don't have easy access to charging (apartment dwellers, homes w/o garages who park on the street), and those who routinely need to drive long trips in short times. Yes, infrastructure can be brought in, range and charge times will improve. But the key is "gradual elimination". I agree that the shift will be gradual. Elimination - very hard to say. Heck, people still ride horses, some even walk, and that's been around for a very long time!
-ERD50

Good luck trying to by an ICE (or even a hybrid) in 2030. Battery advancements, charging infrastructure, government pressure...etc. will have killed ICE for autos by then.

ICE to EV is akin to moving from landlines to cell phones or tube monitors/TVs to flat screens. Just like with those technology shifts, EVs are clearly superior and within a year or two they will be priced to compete with any ICE vehicle. Add to that, governments around the globe actively working to force the switch with incentives, regulations, and cash for infrastructure. Would it surprise you to learn that the government will start subsidizing the cost to retrofit charging infrastructure at apartments and on the streets?

My parents still have a 30" tube TV in their basement, but they watch the 65" flat screen in the living room. Does that mean we have not "eliminated" tube TVs?

 

[ERD50]

Good luck trying to by an ICE (or even a hybrid) in 2030. ...

I have no doubt that there will be plenty of ICEs available for sale 10 years from now. No way will some of the issues I mentioned be resolved in that short of a time (almost every car owning apartment dweller has convenient charger access in that time?)

ICE to EV is akin to moving from landlines to cell phones or tube monitors/TVs to flat screens. ...

OK, so show me - you do some work. Get me the data - what % of cars on the road today in the US are EVs?

Now find the point in time where cell phones reached that same level, and then show us how many years it was before it was every difficult to even buy a landline phone. Heck, it's easy to buy them today on Amazon (which can be used with VOIP or copper). It may be difficult/impossible to get a new copper line installed in many areas, but there are still many in use.

Here's a start:

https://rcntechnologies.com/the-current-state-of-copper-pots-lines/

by RCN Technologies | Apr 28, 2021

Right now, by the FCCs count, there are about 36 million active POTS lines in the United States.

... the FCC has mandated that they would like for major providers to sunset copper POTS lines by the beginning of August 2022.

It will be interesting to see if the FCC remains firm on this. As we mentioned earlier, there are still 36 million active accounts, so the FCC just flipping the switch is unlikely. ....

[POTS (Plain Old Telephone Systems) are basically an analog voice transmission line that is implemented over copper wires and has been in use since the 1880s. ]

Now, repeat for tubes and flat screens. I doubt the change to needing "good luck" to buy one, from current EV levels was less than 10 years. But that's a guess, prove me wrong.

... Just like with those technology shifts, EVs are clearly superior ...

If that were true, we wouldn't be having this discussion! You don't have to 'sell me' on email vs snail mail, that is "clearly superior" (and yet, snail mail is still around).

Sure, EVs have many advantages. But to be "clearly superior" to the point that in less than 10 years it will be difficult to even find an ICE/hybrid for sale, they need to be superior in almost every way for almost everybody. They aren't, and I don't think we will be there in less than 10 years. Or the infrastructure.

...My parents still have a 30" tube TV in their basement, but they watch the 65" flat screen in the living room. Does that mean we have not "eliminated" tube TVs?

No, I'm not going to move the goal posts on you, your criteria were strict enough! You said one would need good luck to find an ICE for sale in 2030 (I assume you mean new). That's different from "eliminating" ICEs from existence. There are steam cars in museums and in use by hobbyists - they have not been 'eliminated' by your definition. But newer technology has moved them to a tiny, tiny niche. I don't think ICEs will be a tiny, tiny niche by 2030. And there will still be plenty of gas stations around.

-ERD50

 

[MRG]

Today's discussion proves once again that there are those that are having a hard time with the gradual elimination of ICE cars.

GM sales down 33% domestically. Ouch.

Tesla sales up 73% yoy.

But it's ok, because I know some people who didn't buy an EV. I'm sure the CEO of GM feels much better knowing this.

Hilarious.

To be fair GM would have had better numbers if they'd done a better job managing their supply chain. That is embarrassing for someone. Tesla did a better job on chip supplies but they've pushing orders back too. EV acceptance is up and why not. I became a believer in about 1.27 seconds after initial lift off.

I took my DW to her dental cleaning downtown today and while I waited I walked down to the San Juan where we have 4 charging stations. A year ago the free juice ended so it's interesting to see how many people who are paying 31 cents per KWH to charge, today there were 3. Not bad in a small remote area where EVs aren't supposed to be driving. I talked to 2 of the 3, fellow model Y owners, and they're touring around the country right now.

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

1) Email vs. snailmail- The difference would be that governments are not banning snailmail. ICE cars are on the chopping block around the globe. Snailmail is inferior but will remain, as it's not going to be banned.

2) Regarding banning ICE cars, the UK and Netherlands are banning ICE's in 2030, and hybrids in 2035. When America joins these nations, yeah, there won't be any more ICE's bought. Fun fact: UK and Netherlands asked President Biden to join them and implement ICE car bans on the same schedule as them just last week. I am unaware if the president responded. To be fair, it appears to me that President Biden doesn't seem too eager to ban ICE cars.

I said "when" America joins them, because I see 2 possible outcomes. Either A) America joins the list of 20 something countries banning ICE cars, or B) America goes in the opposite direction and lets everyone keep their ICE cars as long as they want.

We can't discuss political issues, but when you read the news, see the changes taking place, and see which way the wind is blowing...does anybody predict outcome B? You actually think America tells the world "Sorry, not doing it". To me the future is obvious.

3) Apartments - I've covered this before. I realize when you don't have an EV, some aspects are not clear on how things are done. In middle America, I'm sure chargers (Today!) are few and far between. In my state, there are chargers on top of chargers on top of chargers. They are at the markets, restaurants, gyms, Costco, as well as the individual cities have them (in parking structures). The universities have them. There is also parking lots that serve no other function than to charge EV's.

So the apartment dwellers mentioned simply plug in every time you go somewhere. There's days I'll plug in 3 times a day. You park, do your shopping/eat/whatever you want, and drive off at your leisure. I have 2 EV's and the charging options are so numerous, I haven't charged at home since Feb/2021.
So the apartment renting EV owners have more charging options than they need.

We can't talk about pending legislation, so I'll just say...there are more chargers coming soon all across the country.

 

[Sunset]

...

2) Regarding banning ICE cars, the UK and Netherlands are banning ICE's in 2030, and hybrids in 2035. When America joins these nations, yeah, there won't be any more ICE's bought. .....

....

It seems pretty easy to me to have a EV in the UK or the Netherlands and drive across the country. They are tiny countries.

Driving across the US takes days.

I think the concept of distance driving is very different between the countries.

Here in the US, folks have range anxiety, sometimes I have it with my ICE vehicle on long trips if I get down to 1/4 tank.

Once the grid is bigger and stronger and there are chargers more plentiful than gas stations, I can see EV's will be the only game in town for the vast majority of people.

 

[oneill225]

It seems pretty easy to me to have a EV in the UK or the Netherlands and drive across the country. They are tiny countries.

Driving across the US takes days.

I think the concept of distance driving is very different between the countries.

Here in the US, folks have range anxiety, sometimes I have it with my ICE vehicle on long trips if I get down to 1/4 tank.

Once the grid is bigger and stronger and there are chargers more plentiful than gas stations, I can see EV's will be the only game in town for the vast majority of people.

Agreed that range and charging need to get better and they are. The "infrastructure" bill will speed it up even more (not a comment in support of gov subsidies, just a fact).

One big difference from ICE is that every location with an electrical outlet can be a "gas station" for an EV. In that sense, there are already more chargers than gas stations.

 

[cbo111]

With a little over 2,000 miles on my Tesla Model Y, I am very satisfied with the purchase. Just returned from a 750 mile round trip in Florida. No waits at the superchargers, and the car performed as advertised. If you routinely travel at 80mph+, be aware that the battery range degrades quickly. I also have a deposit in for the Cyber Truck, although its unclear if Tesla can come close to the $50K sticker price. I just saw online prices for a 2021 Ford F-250 Super Duty ranged from $95K to $105K. Yikes!

 

[Car-Guy]

With a little over 2,000 miles on my Tesla Model Y, I am very satisfied with the purchase. Just returned from a 750 mile round trip in Florida. No waits at the superchargers, and the car performed as advertised. If you routinely travel at 80mph+, be aware that the battery range degrades quickly. I also have a deposit in for the Cyber Truck, although its unclear if Tesla can come close to the $50K sticker price. I just saw online prices for a 2021 Ford F-250 Super Duty ranged from $95K to $105K. Yikes!

So, after a few hundred+ miles of driving, (or nearly out of juice) how long does it take to get a "near" full charge at a super charging station?

 

[Midpack]

There’s a trend emerging but how fast it plays out remains to be seen. I believe critical mass (cars on the road) will be closer to 2050 than 2030. Good article link below?

On the passenger car side, the 17 governments that have set ICE vehicle phase-out targets accounted only for about 13% of global new passenger car sales in 2019 (note that we use registration data to indicate sales in some jurisdictions).

We emphasize that the phase-out commitments apply to the sale of new vehicles and not vehicles already on the road. Also, only British Columbia has adopted binding regulation, and most of the ICE vehicle phase-out targets do not include plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). Recent analysis found that PHEVs consume two-to-four times more fuel on average than is reflected in type-approval values.

Importantly, leading vehicle markets such as the United States, China, and Germany lack a binding, long-term commitment toward a full transition away from ICE vehicles. In the United States, the Zero-Emission Vehicles Act that sets a zero-emission vehicle sales target by 2040 has not been passed. And in China, although the relevant regulatory agency started researching an ICE ban in 2017, there have been no official targets announced by the central government.

Still, the recent announcements and commitments are an important signal. They seem to have brought new momentum to the discussions around ICE vehicle phase-out targets and making a full transition to zero-emission vehicles. Maybe these will bring a jolt to countries that have thus far been hesitant to commit to a defined phase-out target.

https://theicct.org/blog/staff/global-ice-phaseout-nov2020

 

[oneill225]

There’s a trend emerging but how fast it plays out remains to be seen. I believe critical mass (cars on the road) will be closer to 2050 than 2030. Good article link below?

You are, of course, correct that no one knows with any certainty how fast the switch will occur. That being said, the shift has been occurring faster than predicted, not slower.

If all we were talking about was government pressure to switch to EVs, I would agree that it will be slower than predicted. We have seen this with gov attempts to force solar and wind. EVs are different, however, because the switch would likely occur without any gov intervention. EVs are something that most people will want to own for the product itself.

 

[GTFan]

So the apartment renting EV owners have more charging options than they need.

In your area? Maybe. In my west metro ATL area? No friggin way. There's no EV chargers in any shopping area near me, not that you'd be able to get enough charge in 30 minutes anyway given the lack of a home charger. This is a suburb 20 mins. from downtown btw, not the boonies.

Not really surprising given that I can count the number of EVs I see in a week on one hand, give or take.

 

[travelover]

Henry Ford said something to the effect of , whether you think though can do something or not, you are right. The same applies to combatting climate change and adoption of electric cars. I remember when there was a huge backlash to wearing a seat belt due to the risk of being trapped when your car went under water. There is always a reason that something might not work.

 

[Car-Guy]

EVs are something that most people will want to own for the product itself.

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

In your area? Maybe. In my west metro ATL area? No friggin way. There's no EV chargers in any shopping area near me, not that you'd be able to get enough charge in 30 minutes anyway given the lack of a home charger. This is a suburb 20 mins. from downtown btw, not the boonies.

Not really surprising given that I can count the number of EVs I see in a week on one hand, give or take.

You quoted me but left out the part where I said it was different in middle America. California and the North East have the most chargers. They also have the highest population. It makes sense to to deploy them there.

The charging infrastructure is still being built out. The less populated locations will get their share as time goes on. This change in driving is going to take time.