The Electric Vehicle Thread

[ERD50]

There’s a trend emerging but how fast it plays out remains to be seen. I believe critical mass (cars on the road) will be closer to 2050 than 2030. ...

Yes, 2050 is far enough out, a lot of change could happen. But 2030 is less than 10 years, and that's a pretty short time to go from where we are to "needing luck" buy an ICE (or even a hybrid).

You are, of course, correct that no one knows with any certainty how fast the switch will occur. ...

Wait a minute, didn't you just say (well, you did, I'm quoting you):

Good luck trying to by an ICE (or even a hybrid) in 2030. ...

That sounded pretty certain to me! Are you back peddling, or just starting to see the light that some of us have been shining on the reality of this?

How many of us will still be posting here in 2030? Hard to say, but we have a prediction from oneill225 that is a bit closer in. From this old thread, posted 12-27-2018:

https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/thoughts-on-tesla-86202-20.html#post2163441

Those still "stuck" with ICE vehicles when no one wants to buy them will also need to deal with finding gasoline to fuel them, as the corner gas station will no longer exist.

Quote:
Originally Posted by aja8888 View Post
Crap! I better run down to one of the 5,000 gas stations in Houston and gas up our three vehicles before they get closed! Scary stuff!

You have a little time (5-10 years, I would guess).

So we are already almost 3 years into his 5~10 year range of a world with no corner gas stations. Seems they ought to at least be getting harder to find by now, but I see them still being built, and I have 10 of them within a 3 mile radius. Even if 90% of them close, I won't have any problem filling up.

-ERD50

 

[ERD50]

Henry Ford said something to the effect of , whether you think though can do something or not, you are right. ....

This guy believed that, right up to a few seconds before he left a hole in the ground (WARNING: Contains graphic content @ about 1:15 in).

No, we can't accomplish something just because we want it, reality intervenes.

I think the real take away from Edison is, you can't do something if you don't make a sincere and serious effort. But the inverse does not necessarily hold.

... The same applies to combatting climate change and adoption of electric cars. ....

I honestly don't think EVs can play much of a role at all in combating climate change. We still need to produce the electricity to run them. Our grids are nowhere near 100% renewable, and EVs create extra demand on supply, making it that much harder to get to to 100% renewable.

As I've pointed out many times, EVs represent and added marginal demand. And until we have a regular supply of excess renewable energy to feed that demand (and we are a long-long way from that), EVs will cause a fossil fuel plant to ramp up. There's nowhere else for that energy to come from.

These things can't just be wished for. A while back, a poster here from Ontario (IIRC) pointed out how green their grid was (near 100%), lots of hydro (though some environmentalists aren't happy with that either) and nukes, I think. So at first I was thinking, OK, an EV in that area really would be quite green. Ahhh, but then peel that reality onion back another layer, and what do we find - that grid exports a fair amount of their clean power to New York state, so that NY can throttle back its coal plants. Hmmm, so when we add EVs to that clean grid, that means they export less to NY, and NY ramps up their coal plants to avoid brown/black outs. So even on a very clean grid, the EVs would be running on coal (one step removed, but the climate doesn't know that).

We all wish it was simple, but it's not! And we can't wish that away.

... I remember when there was a huge backlash to wearing a seat belt due to the risk of being trapped when your car went under water. There is always a reason that something might not work.

Except for a few, I don't think there is "backlash" to EVs themselves. If you like one, buy one (or 2 or 3). I like some aspects of them, but I have reasons for not buying one yet. The "backlash" I see in this thread is against some outlandish claims being made w/o any reasoned backing.

Which reminds me:

From this post: https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f27/the-electric-vehicle-thread-101783.html#post2671605

Quote:
Originally Posted by oneill225 View Post
ICE to EV is akin to moving from landlines to cell phones or tube monitors/TVs to flat screens. ...

OK, so show me - you do some work. Get me the data - what % of cars on the road today in the US are EVs?

Now find the point in time where cell phones reached that same level, and then show us how many years it was before it was every difficult to even buy a landline phone. Heck, it's easy to buy them today on Amazon (which can be used with VOIP or copper). It may be difficult/impossible to get a new copper line installed in many areas, but there are still many in use.

Here's a start:

https://rcntechnologies.com/the-curr...er-pots-lines/

by RCN Technologies | Apr 28, 2021

So oneill225, if you really want us to accept what you are saying, show us that there is something to it. Words w/o any references or explanation come across as pretty hollow.

-ERD50

 

[oneill225]

Except for a few, I don't think there is "backlash" to EVs themselves. If you like one, buy one (or 2 or 3). I like some aspects of them, but I have reasons for not buying one yet. The "backlash" I see in this thread is against some outlandish claims being made w/o any reasoned backing.
Which reminds me:

From this post: https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f27/the-electric-vehicle-thread-101783.html#post2671605


So oneill225, if you really want us to accept what you are saying, show us that there is something to it. Words w/o any references or explanation come across as pretty hollow.
-ERD50

Always entertaining.

I don't know about you, but I lived through the transition from landline telephones to cell phones and tube TVs to flat screens. I also lived through the shift to online shopping and the death of malls. Were you not around then? did you not observe how quickly these new technologies replaced the old ones? If you don't remember then do your own search for evidence; I have better things to do.

The transition to EVs have the added impetus of government mandate; not just here, but around the world. I will stand by my 5-10 year prediction for at least 50% of new auto sales being EV.

The demise of gas stations will trail the switch to EV, but you need customers to sell gas. Just a prediction; I'm not psychic.

 

[explanade]

With a little over 2,000 miles on my Tesla Model Y, I am very satisfied with the purchase. Just returned from a 750 mile round trip in Florida. No waits at the superchargers, and the car performed as advertised. If you routinely travel at 80mph+, be aware that the battery range degrades quickly. I also have a deposit in for the Cyber Truck, although its unclear if Tesla can come close to the $50K sticker price. I just saw online prices for a 2021 Ford F-250 Super Duty ranged from $95K to $105K. Yikes!

So, after a few hundred+ miles of driving, (or nearly out of juice) how long does it take to get a "near" full charge at a super charging station?

I think most cars are designed to have 80% charging in an hour or less. Some are like 30 minutes.

It's the last 20%, particularly the last 10%, which takes hours and hours.

So if you plan to do a lot of long road trips, plan on 80% range if you have to recharge often.

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

Gas stations will be around until ICE cars are banned in this country, such as the ones in Europe I mentioned. Since hybrids will still be allowed until 2035, the gas stations should go away some years after that.

I don't know how many gas stations are in my area, I haven't needed to go to any since 2018.

Today's fun fact: EV sales are 21% in China. They were at 15% a year ago.

 

[explanade]

As more and more EVs are sold and more and more ICE cars are put out of service, I wonder if production capacity of oil and gas refining will be taken offline.

That might result in more limited supplies and higher prices of gas, which would feed more sales of EV relative to ICE cars.

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

So, after a few hundred+ miles of driving, (or nearly out of juice) how long does it take to get a "near" full charge at a super charging station?

Depends on which charger you use. I go from 50% to 80% in 20 minutes at a supercharger. Thats the ones that charge around 70kW.

They also have V3 chargers that charge at 250kW. Obviously much faster. I've never used one.

Europe has chargers now that charge at 360kW.

In UK, it's a law that there has to be a charger every fifth parking space.

 

[Midpack]

As more and more EVs are sold and more and more ICE cars are put out of service, I wonder if production capacity of oil and gas refining will be taken offline.

That might result in more limited supplies and higher prices of gas, which would feed more sales of EV relative to ICE cars.

Might? You can rest assured gas prices will go up considerably when EVs become a significant % of cars on the road globally. But that’s not going to happen in the next few years. Used cars outsell new by about 3 to 1, and that’s not going to change as most people can’t or won’t buy new cars. The average age of cars on the road is about 12 years, which includes many well over 12 years old, that’s not going to change radically either.

Timing will be interesting to watch. EV adoption is still relatively low in the US despite strong growth for the sector. But eventually there will seem to be a rush to EVs as that growth compounds, like most new technologies.

I wonder/worry that Chinese EVs might impact US sales in much the same way Japanese cars did beginning in the 70’s & 80’s - continuing to this day.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...re-all-electric-we-ll-still-have-gas-stations

 

[ERD50]

Quote:
Originally Posted by explanade View Post
As more and more EVs are sold and more and more ICE cars are put out of service, I wonder if production capacity of oil and gas refining will be taken offline.

That might result in more limited supplies and higher prices of gas, which would feed more sales of EV relative to ICE cars.

Might? You can rest assured gas prices will go up considerably when EVs become a significant % of cars on the road globally. But that’s not going to happen in the next few years.

Timing will be interesting to watch. EV adoption is still relatively low in the US despite strong growth for the sector. But eventually there will seem to be a rush to EVs as that growth compounds, like most new technologies. ...

Normally, the supply demand curve says as demand goes down, prices go down. With all the infrastructure for gasoline/diesel in place, I don't see where we would easily hit the point where fuel demand got so low that it didn't warrant keeping some of the equipment on line. They'd let the oldest refineries wind down, but IIRC gas companies were still making a profit with $2 gas and cheap oil (again, lower demand should drop the oil price).

Your chart shows sales, not prices per liter or gallon. The link is behind a paywall.

At least that's the supply/demand curve I learned about.

-ERD50

 

[ERD50]

Always entertaining.

I don't know about you, but I lived through the transition from landline telephones to cell phones and tube TVs to flat screens. I also lived through the shift to online shopping and the death of malls. Were you not around then? did you not observe how quickly these new technologies replaced the old ones? If you don't remember then do your own search for evidence; I have better things to do.

The transition to EVs have the added impetus of government mandate; not just here, but around the world. I will stand by my 5-10 year prediction for at least 50% of new auto sales being EV.

The demise of gas stations will trail the switch to EV, but you need customers to sell gas. Just a prediction; I'm not psychic.

Yes, I lived through it, and my impression is it was much longer than 10 years to go from the same % of users as EVs today to "being hard to buy" the older tech.

But you are the one that made the claim, so you should be the one to back it up, if you want to be taken seriously.

... I will stand by my 5-10 year prediction for at least 50% of new auto sales being EV. ...

Maybe we need to number your predictions . The 5-10 year prediction we were just talking about was you saying gas stations would no longer exist in 5-10 years (although I'd even take a softer measure of just being very difficult to find, to the point of making owning an ICE/hybrid very inconvenient).

-ERD50

 

[cbo111]

I think most cars are designed to have 80% charging in an hour or less. Some are like 30 minutes.

It's the last 20%, particularly the last 10%, which takes hours and hours.

So if you plan to do a lot of long road trips, plan on 80% range if you have to recharge often.

Yes, this is fairly accurate. Range management can be confusing to folks who don't drive an EV. My Tesla can go about 300 miles from full 100% charge to zero. But on longer trips, that is not how one drives. On my recent trip of about 425 miles each way, the computer had me stop twice to charge for about 20 minutes at each stop. The computer recommends your charge locations based on your current driving style (70mph vs 85mph). You can override the choice and pick another charge location. We like chargers near restrooms, grocery stores, restaurants, etc to make the wait less painful. Typically you arrive at a charger with about 15% battery and charge to about 80-85%. Enroute, if you decide to put the pedal to the metal, the computer will advise you to reduce speed to xx mph to ensure arrival at next location.
This whole thing sounds a bit complex, but it is not. A drive that normally takes about 6.5 hours in a gas vehicle might take 7 hours in a Tesla. I'm retired and not in a hurry, so this is not a problem for me.
If you ever have a whim to test drive a Tesla, be aware that many of you will become fixated and eventually purchase one. Thats what happened to me.

 

[explanade]

My reluctance with Tesla isn't so much the car (though there are complaints about build and material quality, especially the interiors) but the company and the CEO.

Today, a jury awarded $137 million to a former worker who sued for a racist work environment at the Fremont, CA plant where the managers did nothing.

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

Depends on which charger you use. I go from 50% to 80% in 20 minutes at a supercharger. Thats the ones that charge around 70kW.

They also have V3 chargers that charge at 250kW. Obviously much faster. I've never used one.

Europe has chargers now that charge at 360kW.

In UK, it's a law that there has to be a charger every fifth parking space.

I should have included: the "360" adds 62 miles in less than 3 minutes.

 

[Koolau]

I am hopeful that those who will accept blackouts and crazy prices are a vocal minority of the population (located mostly in CA). They will not prevail until energy storage is figured out.

They may WELL be a minority, but they have achieved power - political power. With that, being a minority isn't really a major issue. Failure is what may be required to show that the vocal minority was wrong in their assumptions of what is possible in such a short time. Of course, if you spend enough (of other people's money) you can accomplish almost anything. YMMV

 

[Koolau]

Today's discussion proves once again that there are those that are having a hard time with the gradual elimination of ICE cars.

GM sales down 33% domestically. Ouch.

Tesla sales up 73% yoy.

But it's ok, because I know some people who didn't buy an EV. I'm sure the CEO of GM feels much better knowing this.

Hilarious.

I don't see how recognizing the current and potential issues with EV's is a negative thing - I view it as reality. I'm on record as being FOR EVs - once they achieve their "promise" of being every bit as good as ICE cars and being just as inexpensive to produce and fuel - AND especially supplying the grid with enough fuel (that doesn't come from fossil fuels.)

I hope it's sooner than later that EVs replace ICEs, but I'll not hold my breath nor champion massive subsidies nor overlook the multitude of remaining issues that limit EVs penetration into the market. Of course, YMMV.

 

[braumeister]

If you ever have a whim to test drive a Tesla, be aware that many of you will become fixated and eventually purchase one. Thats what happened to me.

Perhaps, for some, but I had the opposite reaction. I'd been lusting after one for several years, and rented one for three days last month. The experience completely changed my mind and I no longer have any interest in them.

So it's a very individual thing. I may be wrong, but my feeling is that some people like the idea of driving one so much that they are more willing to forgive shortcomings in the actual experience of driving it.

 

[Alan]

Gas stations will be around until ICE cars are banned in this country, such as the ones in Europe I mentioned. Since hybrids will still be allowed until 2035, the gas stations should go away some years after that.

You have made this statement a couple of times now but AFAIK it is only the sale of new ICE cars that will banned in some European countries by a certain year. Second hand cars and the sales of them will be around for a long time to come. It is simply not practical to say that after a certain date all existing ICE cars cannot be sold so that everyone who owns one is stuck with it and can only buy an EV.

 

[Aerides]

Anyone thinking they can see the end of ICE cars on the horizon should probably punt that vision to their grandchildren. On a daily basis, I see many late model cars and trucks, 90s, 80's, even 70's.. and those weren't built half as well as the ones from the past 20 years.

While many of us like to disparage the Joneses for having new cars with big loans they can't afford, there are millions in the population who drive far older and cheaper cars and will continue to do so. Most suburban areas offer nearly zero viable public transport options for work commuters.

Half of ER.org proudly remarks that their cars are from the mid-aughts, and they have no plans to replace them, putting on only 3-5k miles per year. And more than half would never pay even the cost of the lowest price Tesla for their next car.

Sure, the growth rates in few major cities might be exponential, but, there will still be well over 150M ICE cars on the road in the US in 2035, if not more, and any talk of bans of gas stations would be tied up in the courts for another decade. eta: I live in a suburban coastal middle-class neighborhood, Tesla's are common-as-muck here, to the point they are are boring looking.

I'll come back to the thread when 1K miles on a single charge is the norm.

 

[oneill225]

Yes, I lived through it, and my impression is it was much longer than 10 years to go from the same % of users as EVs today to "being hard to buy" the older tech.

But you are the one that made the claim, so you should be the one to back it up, if you want to be taken seriously.

What is there to "back-up"? I made a simple comparison. If you disagree, so be it. Time will tell.

Maybe we need to number your predictions . The 5-10 year prediction we were just talking about was you saying gas stations would no longer exist in 5-10 years (although I'd even take a softer measure of just being very difficult to find, to the point of making owning an ICE/hybrid very inconvenient).-ERD50

Number them, index them, and place them in your gotcha file.

 

[Koolau]

Anyone thinking they can see the end of ICE cars on the horizon should probably punt that vision to their grandchildren. On a daily basis, I see many late model cars and trucks, 90s, 80's, even 70's.. and those weren't built half as well as the ones from the past 20 years.

While many of us like to disparage the Joneses for having new cars with big loans they can't afford, there are millions in the population who drive far older and cheaper cars and will continue to do so. Most suburban areas offer nearly zero viable public transport options for work commuters.

Half of ER.org proudly remarks that their cars are from the mid-aughts, and they have no plans to replace them, putting on only 3-5k miles per year. And more than half would never pay even the cost of the lowest price Tesla for their next car.

Sure, the growth rates in few major cities might be exponential, but, there will still be well over 150M ICE cars on the road in the US in 2035, if not more, and any talk of bans of gas stations would be tied up in the courts for another decade. eta: I live in a suburban coastal middle-class neighborhood, Tesla's are common-as-muck here, to the point they are are boring looking.

I'll come back to the thread when 1K miles on a single charge is the norm.

I think this is substantially correct. My oldest car is 22 model years old and my newest car is 10 model years old. I have no plans to replace either one until they are no longer practical to repair. When that happens, I'll likely buy other used ICE cars. I love the EV technology and am hopeful that we can wean ourselves from so much fossil fuel usage, but I don't really see it happening in my lifetime - maybe not my kids but I'm a glass-half-empty kind of guy. YMMV

 

[oneill225]

They may WELL be a minority, but they have achieved power - political power. With that, being a minority isn't really a major issue. Failure is what may be required to show that the vocal minority was wrong in their assumptions of what is possible in such a short time. Of course, if you spend enough (of other people's money) you can accomplish almost anything. YMMV

Agreed. The rolling blackouts have already started in CA and TX is beefing up their grid after the failure last winter. Germany also had to back off from their move to shut down fossil fuel electric plants. Blackouts are not something people will tolerate for long.

 

[GTFan]

You quoted me but left out the part where I said it was different in middle America. California and the North East have the most chargers. They also have the highest population. It makes sense to to deploy them there.

The charging infrastructure is still being built out. The less populated locations will get their share as time goes on. This change in driving is going to take time.

So 'middle America' is anything but CA and the NE? LOL.

The takeup on EVs is nowhere near what it needs to be, nor is the charging infra.

 

[Car-Guy]

Anyone thinking they can see the end of ICE cars on the horizon should probably punt that vision to their grandchildren. On a daily basis, I see many late model cars and trucks, 90s, 80's, even 70's.. and those weren't built half as well as the ones from the past 20 years.

+1

I live in a suburban coastal middle-class neighborhood, Tesla's are common-as-muck here, to the point they are are boring looking.

I drive a lot and know the make and model of cars by a quick glance pretty well... Seeing a Tesla around here is almost as rare as seeing a Unicorn.... I have probably seen a dozen or so in the past 5 years and those are usually parked at one of the few charging stations in the area. Do they make Tesla's in any other color than white? (rhetorical) That's all I ever see. But maybe, I'm seeing the same one!

I'll come back to the thread when 1K miles on a single charge is the norm.

Clearly you plan to be posting in this thread again in a decade or two. (maybe)

 

[ERD50]

Anyone thinking they can see the end of ICE cars on the horizon should probably punt that vision to their grandchildren. On a daily basis, I see many late model cars and trucks, 90s, 80's, even 70's.. and those weren't built half as well as the ones from the past 20 years. ....

I think this is substantially correct. My oldest car is 22 model years old and my newest car is 10 model years old. ...

Anecdotes can be enlightening, but I like real data.

Unfortunately, seems most 'journalists' don't know the difference between average and median, or the difference between the "average age of cars on the road", and the "average/median lifespan of a car". "Lifespan" would be the age when the car is taken off the road.

So googling it is tough, the number reported is ~ 12.1 years. I finally found a more meaningful/relevant number:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/28/25p...t-least-sixteen-years-old----record-high.html

"25% of cars in the U.S. are at least sixteen years old"

So if ICE car sales were banned, 100%, nationwide, today, and no imports allowed, there would still be plenty of cars on the road to support a thriving gas station business in 5~10 years, and beyond.

I'd expect that 12.1 year average age would mean that significantly more than half the cars on the road are 12.1 years old. It wouldn't be a normal distribution, as fewer and fewer cars are going to last a very long time (24.2 years?). Though that is offset some as a car can be totaled at any age from a crash. Hmmm, but older cars are worth less, so a more minor crash would total them too. so maybe even offset against old age, moving the median up above 12.1?

-ERD50

 

[Koolau]

+1


I drive a lot and know the make and model of cars pretty well... Seeing a Tesla around here is almost as rare as seeing a Unicorn.... I have probably seen a dozen or so in the past 5 years and those are usually parked at one of the few charging stations in the area. Do they make Tesla's in any other color than white? (rhetorical) That's all I ever see. But maybe, I'm seeing the same one!




Clearly you plan to be posting here for decades to come.

There seem to be quite a few Teslas (and other electrics) in the Islands. It's really sort of puzzled me. Although our gas is expensive (around $4 right now) electricity is ridiculous (I think I heard over $0.32/KWH now). So only thing I can figure is that electrics aren't as "range sensitive" on small Islands. How far can you go on Oahu, for instance, without running into the ocean or running out of road?