The Electric Vehicle Thread

[mpeirce]

Blackouts are not something people will tolerate for long.

Much of the world is very used to black outs.

Of course, well to do people in those places all have diesel generators. That is already becoming common for well to do folks in the US.

Wait until they try to mandate the end of those...

 

[oneill225]

Much of the world is very used to black outs.

Of course, well to do people in those places all have diesel generators. That is already becoming common for well to do folks in the US.

Wait until they try to mandate the end of those...

I am referring to countries that have a history of steady and reliable electricity. If blackouts are the norm in a country, then there are bigger problems than EVs.

 

[ERD50]

What is there to "back-up"? I made a simple comparison. If you disagree, so be it. Time will tell. ...

We can't rationally disagree on facts.

You used the flat screen TV and cell phone as examples of products that were adopted faster than the 10 year cycle you predict for EVs to go from today's numbers to the kinds of numbers that would make it difficult to find a new ICE/hybrid for sale, or to find a gas station to fill it. That would be a very high % of EVs in 10 years (> 95% of vehicles on the road?), where are we now, with EV sales less than 2% of all cars?

Heck, you keep telling us that even with a small % of EVs on the road, finding charging stations isn't a big challenge. So finding gas stations shouldn't be hard even if/when ICE/hybrids become a small % of the total.

So you made the assertion that those products went from < 2% to something like > 90% in less than 10 years. I doubt it. You made the assertion, you provide the evidence.

That is different than disagreeing on where EVs will be in 10 years. The product cycles you mentioned either happened or they didn't. If they didn't, it's a hollow comparison from you. Even if they did (which I doubt), it might not be relevant anyhow, different products have different obstacles. Flat screen TVs didn't really have any obstacle for the mainstream consumer, once they reached price parity. They plugged in the same outlet had the same connectors, were smaller and lighter, so easily fit anywhere the old TV did. Only a pretty small % might be holdouts over perceived quality or response time for gamers. But I still doubt it was 2% to 95% of installed TVs in 10 years. But it would still be interesting to see if they moved that fast, even w/o obstacles.

If you don't want to back up your statements, so be it. But don't expect people to take you seriously, anyone can say anything they want. Only serious people will stand behind it with evidence.

-ERD50

 

[MichaelB]

Perhaps, for some, but I had the opposite reaction. I'd been lusting after one for several years, and rented one for three days last month. The experience completely changed my mind and I no longer have any interest in them.

So it's a very individual thing. I may be wrong, but my feeling is that some people like the idea of driving one so much that they are more willing to forgive shortcomings in the actual experience of driving it.

Was it anything specific about the car? You’ve commented often that you enjoy driving and I’m curious what turned you off the Tesla - if you care to share.

 

[oneill225]

We can't rationally disagree on facts.

You used the flat screen TV and cell phone as examples of products that were adopted faster than the 10 year cycle you predict for EVs to go from today's numbers to the kinds of numbers that would make it difficult to find a new ICE/hybrid for sale, or to find a gas station to fill it. That would be a very high % of EVs in 10 years (> 95% of vehicles on the road?), where are we now, with EV sales less than 2% of all cars?

Heck, you keep telling us that even with a small % of EVs on the road, finding charging stations isn't a big challenge. So finding gas stations shouldn't be hard even if/when ICE/hybrids become a small % of the total.

So you made the assertion that those products went from < 2% to something like > 90% in less than 10 years. I doubt it. You made the assertion, you provide the evidence.

That is different than disagreeing on where EVs will be in 10 years. The product cycles you mentioned either happened or they didn't. If they didn't, it's a hollow comparison from you. Even if they did (which I doubt), it might not be relevant anyhow, different products have different obstacles. Flat screen TVs didn't really have any obstacle for the mainstream consumer, once they reached price parity. They plugged in the same outlet had the same connectors, were smaller and lighter, so easily fit anywhere the old TV did. Only a pretty small % might be holdouts over perceived quality or response time for gamers. But I still doubt it was 2% to 95% of installed TVs in 10 years. But it would still be interesting to see if they moved that fast, even w/o obstacles.

If you don't want to back up your statements, so be it. But don't expect people to take you seriously, anyone can say anything they want. Only serious people will stand behind it with evidence.

-ERD50

More power to you. It is not my job (I am retired, after all) to convince you beyond any reasonable doubt that the transition to cell phones happened within 10 years. That was my experience, but we each have our own experiences crosses to bear.

I think I have been pretty consistent with my comments. A couple of years ago I predicted (and still believe) that 50% of new car sales will be EV within 5-10 years. I have also predicted that, as the demand for gasoline and diesel declines, gas stations will start to go away. Again, not too controversial in my book and just speculation. I would encourage you to disregard my comments if you find them to be too upsetting.

 

[Texas Proud]

Wow, got on and 5 pages behind... did not read them all...


But, back then someone was talking about getting copper wire for home phones... I had mine replaced 3 or so years ago... AT&T copper..


Last year they did come in and install fiber so I doubt I could get my copper wire replaced that a crew that put in a gas line cut up 5 times...


To be fair, they also cut my cable line, my low voltage lighting line, my sprinkler system wires and in 3 places cut the sprinkler pipes...

 

[explanade]

Barring some major breakthrough in battery technology, nobody is going to try to make a 1000 mile per charge EV in any kind of quantity.

You could make one 1000-mile EV or four 250-mile EVs with the same amount of battery. 250 miles a charge will cover the commuting needs of the vast majority of the population for a week.

So what is a better use of battery?

 

[braumeister]

Was it anything specific about the car? You’ve commented often that you enjoy driving and I’m curious what turned you off the Tesla - if you care to share.

It was just the comparison with my current car (which is actually a PHEV, so I'm not a stranger to charging).

• The fit and finish of the Tesla seemed cheap and not at all what I would expect of a car in that price range.
• DW complained that the cabin felt narrow and cramped.
• The touchscreen, which controls literally everything, seemed overly complicated, but I imagine I would get used to that eventually.
• The ride was extremely stiff and unpleasant. We could feel every little irregularity in the road. In fairness, it was supposedly the "performance" model, but still...
• It was incredibly noisy. The road noise was overwhelming compared to what I'm used to.
• The seats were not that comfortable. I could never drive it for more than a couple of hours at a stretch.

On the other hand, I was very impressed with the nav system. The most intelligent implementation I've seen in any car.

 

[TriumphTR3fan]

There seem to be quite a few Teslas (and other electrics) in the Islands. It's really sort of puzzled me. Although our gas is expensive (around $4 right now) electricity is ridiculous (I think I heard over $0.32/KWH now). So only thing I can figure is that electrics aren't as "range sensitive" on small Islands. How far can you go on Oahu, for instance, without running into the ocean or running out of road?[emoji23]

One possible reason could be is that Teslas & other EV’s are more energy dense than ICE vehicles. A Tesla Model 3 LR has the battery equivalent of a 2.25 gallon gas tank, yet gets about 131 MPG equivalent of gas mileage. That can vary especially in urban traffic where EV’s typically get better mileage since there’s no idling in traffic. That’s far better than any high MPG ICE vehicle. So while electricity is expensive there it’s more than offset by the efficiency.

 

[Koolau]

One possible reason could be is that Teslas & other EV’s are more energy dense than ICE vehicles. A Tesla Model 3 LR has the battery equivalent of a 2.25 gallon gas tank, yet gets about 131 MPG equivalent of gas mileage. That can vary especially in urban traffic where EV’s typically get better mileage since there’s no idling in traffic. That’s far better than any high MPG ICE vehicle. So while electricity is expensive there it’s more than offset by the efficiency.

Yeah, at say $4/gallon with 35 MPG and $0.32/KWH at about 3 M/KWH the fuel costs are nearly a wash. But I can buy a used Civic or Corola for $10K vs a Tesla for 4 times as much. If I drive 8K/year, I come out WAY ahead with the ICE and I can even replace the ICE with another if need be. Which would I RATHER have - probably the Tesala. More fun. More reliable. It would be new and under warrantee, etc. BUT everything else equal, the used ICE would likely be much cheaper per mile. A big YMMV applies since so many factors also apply.

 

[Koolau]

It was just the comparison with my current car (which is actually a PHEV, so I'm not a stranger to charging).

• The fit and finish of the Tesla seemed cheap and not at all what I would expect of a car in that price range.
• DW complained that the cabin felt narrow and cramped.
• The touchscreen, which controls literally everything, seemed overly complicated, but I imagine I would get used to that eventually.
• The ride was extremely stiff and unpleasant. We could feel every little irregularity in the road. In fairness, it was supposedly the "performance" model, but still...
• It was incredibly noisy. The road noise was overwhelming compared to what I'm used to.
• The seats were not that comfortable. I could never drive it for more than a couple of hours at a stretch.

On the other hand, I was very impressed with the nav system. The most intelligent implementation I've seen in any car.

I've ridden in son's Mod. 3 several times. Agree it looks a bit cheap - sort of industrial - get the job done kind of cheap. It was hard for grandpa to get into. I had to fold like a pretzel to fit through the door. Once inside, it was fine. Reasonably comfortable for an hour+ drive. I didn't find it overly noisy though perhaps noisier than I would have expected for not having an ICE. Yeah, I liked the Nav system though I have nothing to compare it to.

Interesting concept of the Nav. system (a bit off topic). Son knows the area around the old homestead 'cause he grew up there. I can say, take Dishwater Rd. to Apple Seed Dr. and you'll find Smitty's blacksmith shop. Son's girlfriend doesn't even know the names of the main streets/roads after a year - even though her "j*b" is delivering meals from restaurants. She is totally dependent on the Nav. system in her EV. Without that she is totally lost.

Now returning you....

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

Yeah, at say $4/gallon with 35 MPG and $0.32/KWH at about 3 M/KWH the fuel costs are nearly a wash. But I can buy a used Civic or Corola for $10K vs a Tesla for 4 times as much. If I drive 8K/year, I come out WAY ahead with the ICE and I can even replace the ICE with another if need be. Which would I RATHER have - probably the Tesala. More fun. More reliable. It would be new and under warrantee, etc. BUT everything else equal, the used ICE would likely be much cheaper per mile. A big YMMV applies since so many factors also apply.

The drive a used Civic or Corolla (agreed, great way to save $) is nothing pertinent to EV's. I walked past a Ford dealer (that's as close as I get. Ha!) and the first truck I saw was 72K. And I think we all know we have one forum member who buys trucks in that range, or higher.

So for you, the used method works. But that doesn't have anything to do with an EV. ALL new vehicles would violate your approach. Any new ICE or EV would be more expensive per mile.

 

[Koolau]

The drive a used Civic or Corolla (agreed, great way to save $) is nothing pertinent to EV's. I walked past a Ford dealer (that's as close as I get. Ha!) and the first truck I saw was 72K. And I think we all know we have one forum member who buys trucks in that range, or higher.

So for you, the used method works. But that doesn't have anything to do with an EV. ALL new vehicles would violate your approach. Any new ICE or EV would be more expensive per mile.

Your point is well taken. I wasn't consciously trying to "cheat" but I guess I was cheating in reality. Maybe the point was that an EV doesn't fit my current usage (8K per year miles). So, a new ICE doesn't fit either. Guilty as charged!

 

[explanade]

Average selling price of a new car is close to $40k, in the mid to high $30k.

So some EVs with the tax credit, would be less than many ICE cars.

That is if we had decent supplies of EVs, though right now, inventory of all new cars are very limited.

 

[Koolau]

Average selling price of a new car is close to $40k, in the mid to high $30k.

So some EVs with the tax credit, would be less than many ICE cars.

That is if we had decent supplies of EVs, though right now, inventory of all new cars are very limited.

True. If this issue of chips or whatever doesn't turn around soon, USED cars may start costing $30K to $40K! Frightening. I was thinking recently that I'm "invulnerable" to the issue - then one of my used cars died unexpectedly. Fortunately, we decided we could live with the one remaining car. Otherwise, we'd have been looking at exaggerated used car prices with the rest of the masses. YMMV

 

[Car-Guy]

^^^^^

The good side to the used car equation, is the value of trading in or selling a used car "these days".... On my latest deal, (a month ago) I traded in my 2019 SUV for a 2021 Pickup. They allowed me almost the same amount on the trade-in value as I originally paid for it (on paper).

So it's almost like I brought it new in 2019, drove it for over 30k miles in two years, and got all my money back.... (not considering inflation)

 

[Sunset]

Yeah, at say $4/gallon with 35 MPG and $0.32/KWH at about 3 M/KWH the fuel costs are nearly a wash. But I can buy a used Civic or Corola for $10K vs a Tesla for 4 times as much. If I drive 8K/year, I come out WAY ahead with the ICE and I can even replace the ICE with another if need be. Which would I RATHER have - probably the Tesala. More fun. More reliable. It would be new and under warrantee, etc. BUT everything else equal, the used ICE would likely be much cheaper per mile. A big YMMV applies since so many factors also apply.

I could see, that at $0.32/KWH , it is pretty tempting to install solar panels in HI , especially as the sun shines a lot, and there is no snow.

Once you have panels, then with enough (no idea) , one could charge up their EV for a much reduced cost.

 

[oneill225]

Tesla Stock Price

As the Tesla shorts have faded, questions still remain about whether TSLA stock is over priced. The following video does a good job, in my opinion, of laying-out why there is still room to run. The comparison to Amazon is a good one:

 

[ERD50]

As the Tesla shorts have faded, questions still remain about whether TSLA stock is over priced. ...

I haven't watched the video yet, but I'm curious about this statement from you.

It would seem the opposite to me. Shorts sell the stock, hoping to buy back cheaper later. So if the shorts have faded, they have already bought back, and that sustaining buying force has now been (largely) removed.

So without that temporary buying force, wouldn't the stock have less "over priced" force behind it?

I recall reading all sorts of hate towards the ^%$^%#&^&* shorts on the Tesla forums. Never made sense to me. If I believed in the future of a company, I'd be thrilled if there were millions of short-sellers. Bring 'em on! Every time they sell, they create a buying opportunity for a true believer.

Every short seller is a future buyer, eventually moving the stock up. Once they've sold, they can't do any more 'damage' to the stock. Other than short more, and that just creates another buyer.


I have no comment on whether Tesla is over/under/Goldilocks priced, or what the future holds price-wise, but that's true of all the equities I hold.

edit/add - I rarely watch any 25 minute video of anyone talking about a stock valuation, because I'm in the "nobody knows nothing" camp, when it comes to the future. But ~ 3 minutes in, they imply shorts need the stock to go to zero, and that's not true. Any drop in price can be profitable. I gave up there.

-ERD50

 

[Zathras]

There are many posts there thanking the shorts for paying for cars or houses.
The anger is not pointed at shorts, it is pointed at those analysts running hedge funds that provide bad data in ‘short’ arguments.

At one point, shorts did pose a serious risk to Tesla. At this point, they simply provide a buying force, as you indicated.

 

[Texas Proud]

Your point is well taken. I wasn't consciously trying to "cheat" but I guess I was cheating in reality. Maybe the point was that an EV doesn't fit my current usage (8K per year miles). So, a new ICE doesn't fit either. Guilty as charged!

What you need to compare is a used EV with a used Corolla...

 

[Koolau]

I could see, that at $0.32/KWH , it is pretty tempting to install solar panels in HI , especially as the sun shines a lot, and there is no snow.

Once you have panels, then with enough (no idea) , one could charge up their EV for a much reduced cost.

I'm sure those with panels already could respond better than I can. Solar is pretty big business in the Islands. But one of the main issues is connecting to the grid. HECO (Hawaiian Electric) only allows a relatively small number of connections within a given area. I assume this is because they can not handle the relatively inconsistent power. For instance, they can't depend on such power and even though it does flow sometimes, when it doesn't flow (cloud cover) HECO has to use back-up power which can be problematic (and expensive.)

Now, if one were to install panels and either be "off the grid" or at least not connected to the grid with the panels, it might work to charge your EV from just your panels - when the sun is shining.

Those with panels, feel free to give the details as YMMV.

 

[NW-Bound]

I could see, that at $0.32/KWH , it is pretty tempting to install solar panels in HI , especially as the sun shines a lot, and there is no snow.

Once you have panels, then with enough (no idea) , one could charge up their EV for a much reduced cost.

I'm sure those with panels already could respond better than I can. Solar is pretty big business in the Islands. But one of the main issues is connecting to the grid. HECO (Hawaiian Electric) only allows a relatively small number of connections within a given area. I assume this is because they can not handle the relatively inconsistent power. For instance, they can't depend on such power and even though it does flow sometimes, when it doesn't flow (cloud cover) HECO has to use back-up power which can be problematic (and expensive.)

Now, if one were to install panels and either be "off the grid" or at least not connected to the grid with the panels, it might work to charge your EV from just your panels - when the sun is shining.

Those with panels, feel free to give the details as YMMV.

With the current hardware on the market, it is not possible to charge an EV directly from some PV panels, if the system is not grid-tied and you don't have a large battery outside of the EV to act as a buffer to stabilize the PV output.

The simplest analogy is this: You catch some rainwater from your roof. Can you plumb the water directly to your house plumbing? No. You need to store the water from that variable water source into a reservoir or tank, then have a pump to supply the water with a constant pressure to your kitchen and bathroom fixtures.

The power from your PV panels varies with the sun angle throughout the day. And any time a cloud passes by, the output plummets. You need a buffer, meaning a battery, to store the juice. Your EV charging circuit expects a constant voltage source, and it will abort if that source sags.

It is relatively easy for an EV maker to incorporate a circuit that can cope with the variable output of the PV panels. That's what MPPT (Maximum Power Point Tracking) solar charge controllers do, as they act as the interface between the panels and the battery. However, there's currently no EV with this capability on the market.

 

[Koolau]

With the current hardware on the market, it is not possible to charge an EV directly from some PV panels, if the system is not grid-tied and you don't have a large battery outside of the EV to act as a buffer to stabilize the PV output.

The simplest analogy is this: You catch some rainwater from your roof. Can you plumb the water directly to your house plumbing? No. You need to store the water from that variable water source into a reservoir or tank, then have a pump to supply the water with a constant pressure to your kitchen and bathroom fixtures.

The power from your PV panels varies with the sun angle throughout the day. And any time a cloud passes by, the output plummets. You need a buffer, meaning a battery, to store the juice. Your EV charging circuit expects a constant voltage source, and it will abort if that source sags.

It is relatively easy for an EV maker to incorporate a circuit that can cope with the variable output of the PV panels. That's what MPPT (Maximum Power Point Tracking) solar charge controllers do, as they act as the interface between the panels and the battery. However, there's currently no EV with this capability on the market.

Thanks for the clarification. I figured it was something like that. Son's set up apparently charged some batteries and then those charged his car. He wasn't connected to the grid. Apparently, he still didn't actually have enough total juice as he still had to use either free chargers or pay chargers to top up. YMMV

 

[NW-Bound]

Lemme do a back-of-the-envelope solar design for the Oahu location.

A standard monocrystalline panel of 62" x 40", tilted up 30 deg and pointing south, will produce on the average 1.4 kWh/day. Using a rough estimate of 0.3 kWh/mile, one panel will generate enough power for you to drive 4.7 mi each day. With 10 panels, it looks like you will have plenty of juice to drive 47 miles each day.

Of course, you will need a 14 kWh battery to store that juice (ignoring loss in transferring the energy from battery to battery), unless you park and charge your car during the day and only drive at night. That's roughly the capacity of 1 Tesla Powerwall (13.5 kWh). The installation cost for 1 Tesla Powerwall is around $10K, from a Web search I just did. I am sure that if you install multiple Powerwalls, the cost per unit will be lower, due to no more wiring being needed. That $10K does not include the cost of the panels.


PS. By the way, I found out that the solar generation at Oahu is quite constant over the year, if you use the 30 deg tilt angle. The lowest month's production in the winter is as high as 85% that of the highest summer month. Just beautiful.