copyright1997reloaded
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
I don't know the answer to your question but your logic seems sound. The last time a fixed rate was greater than zero on I-Bonds was on November 1, 2019 when it was 0.20%. I'm not expecting a fixed component this November pretty much for the reason you stated. People don't need an incentive to buy. In 2019 they did.
some of us remember when TIPS/I-Bonds had over a 3% real (maybe even close to 4%) component. Those were the days. I still have iBonds from 2003 that are currently paying 11.3%.
I actually just sold (a couple/few days ago) a 2029 maturity TIP that I had owned since 2009 w/a 2.5% real. (It was in a IRA that I am transferring to a 457 plan).