The Next Ten Years - Crystal Ball

[target2019]

For the next ten years I see a gradual turnaround, and we will end up with about 20 years of prosperity (2012-2032). Unfortunately the uptick will not encompass a great number of workers who have lost their jobs and need skills which are very different. This will place greater burden on social welfare systems. The system can't save its way out of two wars and a great recession, so taxes will need to rise. Megacorp continues to hold cash and not hire, so I feel there will be some dramatic tax law change that jump-starts small business. Businesses will get back to the idea that they must produce something that the market wants to buy.

 

[Dawg52]

I have no idea what the next ten years will be like. But I too am a pessimist by nature. I got through the last financial crisis OK and hope to again if we have another one. So not going to worry about it. I always have my med's to fall back on I do plan to travel this fine country of ours over the next 10 years so I'm looking forward to that.

 

[obgyn65]

Yes, among others. A flu pandemic is long overdue.

Are we talking seal flu? Ebola? Something else?

 

[marko]

I think the don't haves will take from the haves on an unprecedented scale.

Cheers

A similar concern was posted on another thread recently and I see this as a notable change coming over the next 10 years.

I"ve personally noticed a marked change in sentiment toward the 'haves'. We used to admire the rich guy; now we have an attitude that if someone is rich, it's because they screwed someone else.

Just yesterday I was at the train station and a homeless guy was walking around saying "c'mon, give me some money...all you people work and have jobs...you have too much already"

Not to be provacative, but personally, I have no long term hope for this country. We've gone from a meritocracy to an entitlement nation...not the end of the world, but in 40 years we'll be like Greece (but with worse food and lousy weather)

I just gotta get through the next 30 years.

 

[REWahoo]

Not to be provacative, but personally, I have no long term hope for this country.

We're doomed, I tell you, DOOMED!

http://www.mayanapocalypse.com/

 

[marko]

We're doomed, I tell you, DOOMED!

The Official Mayan 2012 Countdown

Well, I was speaking mostly from a cultural viewpoint.

The US will continue with it's ups and downs financially, folks on this forum will continue to figure out how to dodge the tax man and we'll all be writing about our travel adventures.

I've learned that the worst projections never happen and that life goes on no matter what.

It's just that as a culture, we'll have a more divided nation. John Edwards was right about one thing: "there are two Americas" (the reality just wasn't what he was implying)

 

[xyz]

Good question, Some folks above said 10 years is a long time, I believe it is a very short time. The priest at my dear mother’s funeral commented on what she said when she was dying at age 80. Words he said heard from so many people on their deathbed… “It all went by so fast”. I often think about that and how fast life really has been.

What do you see happening between now and 2022, or whatever your time line is for retirement?

I do not believe we will have a dramatic economic recovery. With today’s global economy I believe there will be a flattening of wealth throughout the world. We have seen a lot of this already with the changes in India and China. I just don’t believe we will bring the industries we have lost back to the country in just 10 years. I work in an international business and believe me, we have no plans on the horizon. Business has gone global.

I believe we will continue to view the world in a more global nature and those who can work beyond the boundaries of their culture and nation will be very successful.

I can predict with some certainty that I will still be driving the same pickup truck I have today as I really won’t need another for at least 20 years.

I expect my quality of life will improve somewhat as I will be retired and the pressure of work removed from my personal life. Although, I do believe it will remain somewhat the same for all in general.. No massive improvements, no massive reduction in quality. I have faith in people, and we will overcome the barriers that are set in front of us.

 

[rescueme]

As for myself? I have no idea and don't fret about it. What will happen, will happen without my planning or influence on the "greater picture".

Heck, 10 years ago I/DW were still actively employed without any plan or desire to retire until our FRA age of 66.

I've been retired a bit over five years (at age 59), DW joined me at the end of March (at age 63).

So much for planning.

If the next 10 years turn out to be as good as my last five (in retirement), I'll be happy...

 

[MichaelB]

Just remembering some past times

50 years ago we had the Cuban missile crisis, people were building bomb shelters in their back yards and everyone feared nuclear attack

40 years ago the war in Vietnam was at its peak, people were rioting in the streets

30 years ago Japan was becoming the country that would dominate the world

At all those times the view of the future was bleak and pessimistic. Since then global poverty has been reduced, human life expectancy has been extended, and the standard of living in the US has improved. Our greatest challenges do not require major discovery or scientific breakthrough, just some free will. I'm optimistic as ever.

 

[Hamlet]

I have the opposite concern. Never in recent history has the deck been stacked so far in the favor of the haves against the have nots, and yet all I ever seem to hear is rich people whinning about how tough they have it.

We have the lowest tax rates in fifty years. We can buy our children a huge advantage via better schools, good nutrition, better health care, and solid upbringing. If we get into legal trouble, we can buy ourselves a totally different brand of justice than the poor get.

Never in our history have our wealthy had such an oversized view of their relative worth compared to the rest of the country.

A similar concern was posted on another thread recently and I see this as a notable change coming over the next 10 years.

I"ve personally noticed a marked change in sentiment toward the 'haves'. We used to admire the rich guy; now we have an attitude that if someone is rich, it's because they screwed someone else.

Just yesterday I was at the train station and a homeless guy was walking around saying "c'mon, give me some money...all you people work and have jobs...you have too much already"

Not to be provacative, but personally, I have no long term hope for this country. We've gone from a meritocracy to an entitlement nation...not the end of the world, but in 40 years we'll be like Greece (but with worse food and lousy weather)

I just gotta get through the next 30 years.

 

[Frugalityisthenewblack]

In the next ten years the concept of early retirement will continue to elude most people. I am five years younger than my DH who retired early this year from MegaCorp - the same place where I still work. I fear in the next ten years the corporation will gradually push up the retirement age in contract agreements. I just hope not in the next five years as at present I am set to leave at 52 after 30 years of service.
At present there are many retirees who draw a pension for a longer length of time than they actually worked as life spans have increased from previous generations. The writing is on the wall.

 

[Midpack]

Worrying only makes sense when we can do something about the problem. Beyond that, worry could almost be considered a pathology.

Literally true, but it's wise to monitor and adjust/plan for things even though we can't realistically do anything about them. I've known people who take 'it's out of my hands so I'm just going to enjoy myself' a little (or even much) too far, and then want to blame others when things go south. An overly fatalistic come-what-may approach could also be considered a pathology. But after doing what you can to protect yourself, I agree worrying is definitely pointless and self-destructive.

 

[Mulligan]

A similar concern was posted on another thread recently and I see this as a notable change coming over the next 10 years.

I"ve personally noticed a marked change in sentiment toward the 'haves'. We used to admire the rich guy; now we have an attitude that if someone is rich, it's because they screwed someone else.

Just yesterday I was at the train station and a homeless guy was walking around saying "c'mon, give me some money...all you people work and have jobs...you have too much already"

Not to be provacative, but personally, I have no long term hope for this country. We've gone from a meritocracy to an entitlement nation...not the end of the world, but in 40 years we'll be like Greece (but with worse food and lousy weather)

I just gotta get through the next 30 years.

I certainly agree with you that the entitlement mentality is stronger than ever, but it appears to me the media is making more noise about taxing the rich than the public is. As long as the money is coming (borrowing of course) I don't think the general public cares if the rich are getting taxed more or not. This Gallup poll suggests it isn't a major priority issue.

http://dailycaller.com/2012/07/30/poll-global-warming-and-taxing-the-rich-rank-low-on-voters-radar/

 

[ziggy29]

I don't see how we can sustain an economy when technological advances are making American labor more and more irrelevant and less necessary over time.

 

[W2R]

Literally true, but it's wise to monitor and adjust/plan for things even though we can't realistically do anything about them. I've known people who take 'it's out of my hands so I'm just going to enjoy myself' a little (or even much) too far, and then want to blame others when things go south. An overly fatalistic come-what-may approach could also be considered a pathology. But after doing what you can to protect yourself, I agree worrying is definitely pointless and self-destructive.

Thanks for the +1 on exactly what I thought I pointed out in the rest of my post. Worrying and fretting after one has already planned for and prepared for future disasters, is just flagellating oneself and IMO borderline pathological. The point of doing all that planning and preparation is so that afterwards, one can stop fretting and enjoy life.

 

[eytonxav]

The only thing I can predict with any certainty is that except for human nature, things will change, but what and when I don't have a clue.

 

[Nords]

The most enjoyable part about the forum, is the general upbeat, positive attitude of most members.

You could've stopped right there.

That said... here's a question that I think about quite a bit, expecting that at best, the next ten years will be "it".
What do you see happening between now and 2022, or whatever your time line is for retirement?

I predict that in 2022 you'll be predicting at least as much doom & gloom as you've been predicting in this and in a number of your other posts.

I think there are a number of history books on 19th and 20th century finance that will help you appreciate how good the 21st century is really stacking up. True, that's not saying much, but there's a bright side to your despair.

I recommend a library copy of "Lords of Finance", a history of the financial leaders of the world's economic leaders in the period of 1900-1930.
Amazon.com: Lords of Finance: The Bankers Who Broke the World (9780143116806): Liaquat Ahamed: Books

 

[bondi688]

Credit Suisse just published the Global Wealth Report of 2013. They are very bullish in their outlook:
"Global wealth has reached a new all-time high of USD 241 trillion, up
4.9% since last year and 68% since 2003, with the USA accounting for
72% of the latest increase. Average wealth per adult reached a new all time
high of USD 51,600.
We expect global wealth to rise by nearly 40% over the next five
years, reaching USD 334 trillion by 2018. Emerging markets are
responsible for 29% of that growth. China will account for nearly 50%."
I hope they are right.

 

[MDJO]

I'm optimistic. I think the probability of the last 12 years repeating themselves is less than the probability that the next 10 years will be highly prosperous.The last 12 years have been filled with booms and busts, wars and peace, health and sickness, feast and famine.

For me, it seems those with the current gloom and doom outlooks are those for which this is the first cycle they've lived thru. And as we all know, everything runs in cycles.

Agree. The last 12 years have been so bad, we have to revert to the mean sometime. Even a continued modest recovery would spell good times.

 

[traineeinvestor]

Credit Suisse just published the Global Wealth Report of 2013. They are very bullish in their outlook:
"Global wealth has reached a new all-time high of USD 241 trillion, up
4.9% since last year and 68% since 2003, with the USA accounting for
72% of the latest increase. Average wealth per adult reached a new all time
high of USD 51,600.
We expect global wealth to rise by nearly 40% over the next five
years, reaching USD 334 trillion by 2018. Emerging markets are
responsible for 29% of that growth. China will account for nearly 50%."
I hope they are right.

As a recent retiree, I would very much prefer that they are right - positive real returns during the early stages of retirement will go a long way towards derisking my later years.

 

[imoldernu]

Already two and a half years into the ten year crystal ball.
Has your thinking changed?

If you are not yet retired, what's your ranking on the optimism scale?
If you've retired since your original post, is retirement so far, what you expected?
If you were retired back in 2012... any changes in your thinking between then and now?

In our case... finances about the same, a little bit better than expected. Lifestyle changed with a general slowdown of activities. Age creeping in, and though health is still reasonbly good, mind not as sharp.
With all of that, more quiet time to step back from personal cares and look at the world as "a fly on the wall of history"... to look at what's happening, and to put the pieces together and make guesses about tomorrow.

The single greatest change from the past 2 1/2 years seems to me, to be the turn towards tech... 24/7 connectivity, less personal contact, and a hardening of atitudes and beliefs. Not much of a change in actual lving conditions, but a change in direction.

Two and a half years goes by fast. Has anything changed in your outlook?

As to the Mayan Apocalypse... more info here:

http://www.hugedomains.com/domain_profile.cfm?d=mayanapocalypse&e=com

 

[W2R]

My original post:

I agree with Audreyh1's posts.

Worrying only makes sense when we can do something about the problem. Beyond that, worry could almost be considered a pathology.

Most of you know about, and in a friendly way have even teased me about, my "belt and suspenders and more" approach to my own financial plan, which was something that I could DO about my worries. After creating a protective plan, what sense is there in letting worries rule our days and nights?

After one has done everything possible, there is no sense in continuing to worry. Time to kick back and enjoy these good years. Tomorrow, any one of us could be hit by a runaway truck but today, we have our lives to enjoy.

What will happen in the next ten years? Who knows? One thing that I do know is that they will be the most wonderful ten years possible for me.

Nope. Nothing has changed. It has been a pretty amazing and terrific two and a half years thus far. OK, getting older is a little annoying, along with the aches and pains of aging and the tough battle to keep up my strength. But other than that, life has been a bowl of cherries. Continuation of the stock market boom was a pleasant surprise.

 

[Rosie]

A wee digression, but, I love this comment:

After one has done everything possible, there is no sense in continuing to worry. Time to kick back and enjoy these good years. Tomorrow, any one of us could be hit by a runaway truck but today, we have our lives to enjoy.

I was reflecting on much the same sentiment on my walk earlier today.

Cheers, everyone.

 

[G8tr]

My original post:



Nope. Nothing has changed. It has been a pretty amazing and terrific two and a half years thus far. OK, getting older is a little annoying, along with the aches and pains of aging and the tough battle to keep up my strength. But other than that, life has been a bowl of cherries. Continuation of the stock market boom was a pleasant surprise.

Ditto. Life is pretty good. Growing old sucks. Would have been nice to have the money that I have now and the youth/time to enjoy it.


Sent from my iPad using Early Retirement Forum

 

[FUEGO]

I have slowly learned that politics and outside forces are mostly outside my control and scary as they are happening but largely irrelevant for the most part.

I see a high probability that everything will be totally fine 10 years from now. Odds are that our family will see some calamity during the next decade (fire, flood, tornado hurricane, economic set back, illness/injury/death, etc) but we'll do ok in spite of it.

I expect my kids will be 10 years older at the end of the next decade, and life will present a different set of interesting and exciting challenges. But life won't be fundamentally different than today.

Wow, that quarter of a decade sure went by quickly. I posted the above comment in August 2012.

The economic set back hit us in August 2013 when I got lower case fired. It came totally out of the blue and was a political house cleaning where about a quarter of the staff were walked out of the building with no warning.

We were close enough to FIRE status that I threw in the towel. We are financially better off today thanks to roughly equal parts of market returns and DW still working (though that may change very soon).

Otherwise, not a lot has changed. Our kids are doing well in school, our (at the time) six month old is now almost 3 and talking and walking and doing all kinds of crazy active things. We have taken a bunch of vacations over the last 2.5 years and I'm really enjoying my ER so far!

I bet the next 7.5 years still has some unexpected bad news for us but what it will be remains unknown to me!

I'll stand by my disregard of political winds. I don't really care who's in the White House in 2016 since it probably won't make much difference for the nation as a whole.