Thoughts on TESLA

[ERD50]

More good news for Tesla:

https://electrek.co/2018/10/01/tesla-production-record-q3-deliveries-crazier/

Good news? Yet, the stock is basically flat, bouncing +/-, after the reports were released.

Ummm, actually down 1.5% ~ 2% before I came back and posted this.

With good news like that, who needs bad news?

-ERD50

 

[oneill225]

Good news? Yet, the stock is basically flat, bouncing +/-, after the reports were released.
Ummm, actually down 1.5% ~ 2% before I came back and posted this.
With good news like that, who needs bad news?

It's called profit taking. I just bought more on the drop.

 

[Texas Proud]

I know you didn't make the chart, but you decide what to use for making a point and that missed the mark. [emoji16]

I will answer even though ERD did a good job...


I just provided data... the linked list has many more countries... the top 10 included many large countries... USA was 14th IIRC... I did not cherry pick...


However, you say I missed the mark because of ONE entry that was at the top that could be ignored... I think you are missing the mark in this one... I also did not see any research from your side disputing what I linked... if I was so wrong them show me... I am really open to getting more info...


BTW, I also think it is disingenuous to say Americans have more cars than anybody and look in total since America is the 3rd largest population country... of course we will be at the top in raw numbers...


And to beat a dead horse, if some of these small countries that have more autos per capita than we do are not converting to full EVs at a faster pace than we are then I believe that your argument fails... the economics are more favorable for them to convert than it is for us... very little range anxiety there... high cost of fuel... Europe (and possibly Japan or New Zealand) are the much better places to go full EV than the USA...


It does seem Norway is well on its way.... if other follow then facts will show that it will happen faster than I think... but as of now I just do not see it...

 

[ERD50]

Tesla is projecting the $35,000 Model 3 in first half of 2019:

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-base-model-3-35k-standard-trim-production-ramp/

Can you provide the relevant quote, I didn't see a ref to "first half" off-hand as I looked through that. If you want to make a point, don't ask us to do the work.

But the reference linked in that article said:

Elon Musk provided an estimate as to when the $35,000 base trim Model 3 would begin production. According to Musk, Tesla would start manufacturing the standard range, RWD variant of the compact electric car in Q1 2019.

So was it Q1 and slipped to "first half"? [satire]Tesla never slips on a promise date, do they?[/satire]

I'll believe it when I see it.

-ERD50

 

[ERD50]

It's called profit taking. I just bought more on the drop.

Boho, is that you?

-ERD50

 

[bobandsherry]

Tesla is projecting the $35,000 Model 3 in first half of 2019:

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-base-model-3-35k-standard-trim-production-ramp/

And in July 2017 when Model 3 was announced, delivery of $35K price was expected in the fall of THAT YEAR. Roll forward a year and change and it's now "first half 2019". Yada Yada Yada BTW, where do you see reference to "first half 2019"?

The Tesla Model 3 Starts At $35,000 But Only With An Extreme Catch

In other words, that much-vaunted $35,000 price tag is kind of a technicality more than anything else, and it won’t even be available at the car’s launch. It can be had later this fall.

And in May of this year Musk tweeted:

"Need 3 to 6 months after 5k/wk to ship $35k Tesla & live"

Well, 5k/wk achieved in June, so that should have been no later than end of 2018. With Musk it's always "mañana".

And unless something changed, the $35K car comes with only 210 mile range and no autonomous driving.

 

[oneill225]

Can you provide the relevant quote, I didn't see a ref to "first half" off-hand as I looked through that. If you want to make a point, don't ask us to do the work.

Happy to help you out:

"Musk has since provided brief updates on the vehicle, such as its estimated start of production in Q1 2019, as well as an AWD Dual Motor option for the electric car. Tesla’s head of investor relations Martin Viecha provided an estimated timeline for the electric car’s production while facilitating a tour of Gigafactory 1 as well, stating that the $35,000 base Model 3’s would ramp “in the next eight months,” translating to an April or May rollout."

Let me know if you will need more.

 

[oneill225]

And in July 2017 when Model 3 was announced, delivery of $35K price was expected in the fall of THAT YEAR. Roll forward a year and change and it's now "first half 2019". Yada Yada Yada With Musk it's always "mañana".

Fair points, but you gotta have goals. Projections aside, it seems they are trying.

And unless something changed, the $35K car comes with only 210 mile range and no autonomous driving.

True, but 210 fits the needs of most drivers.

 

[ERD50]

Happy to help you out:

"Musk has since provided brief updates on the vehicle, such as its estimated start of production in Q1 2019, ....

Let me know if you will need more.

OK, so the promise is Q1 2019, not "first half of 2019". Yes, of course I know that Q1 is in the first half, but you state it differently than the quote, makes it hard to find the back up.

And it looks like Tesla's head of investor relations doesn't back up Musk either? He says April May, Musk says Q1?

I take it that means you and Tesla's head of investor relations Martin Viecha, don't trust Musk's promises either? So you added 3 months to his? If that's the case, just say so, rather than making it sound like Tesla's promise.

Because you said: "Tesla is projecting the $35,000 Model 3 in first half of 2019:"

So if the $35,000 model isn't shipping Q1 2019, Musk missed another promise.

No I don't need more - that's enough.

-ERD50

 

[braumeister]

Elon Musk apparently inherited the "reality distortion field" that was generated for so long by the late Steve Jobs.

 

[oneill225]

OK, so the promise is Q1 2019, not "first half of 2019". Yes, of course I know that Q1 is in the first half, but you state it differently than the quote, makes it hard to find the back up.
And it looks like Tesla's head of investor relations doesn't back up Musk either? He says April May, Musk says Q1?
I take it that means you and Tesla's head of investor relations Martin Viecha, don't trust Musk's promises either? So you added 3 months to his? If that's the case, just say so, rather than making it sound like Tesla's promise.
Because you said: "Tesla is projecting the $35,000 Model 3 in first half of 2019:"
So if the $35,000 model isn't shipping Q1 2019, Musk missed another promise.
No I don't need more - that's enough.
-ERD50

Sheesh, ERD50. You don't think Tesla's head of investor relations speaks for Tesla? Of course, it is warranted to assume that Musk over-promises when Tesla will hit milestones, but at least give them a little credit for getting there, eventually.

 

[nash031]

Those are the ICE Kona's you're seeing, the electrics should be here in 2 months and the range is 258, not 250 like I thought.

And as a PSA, those Mitsubishi Miev's are poor quality..save yourself some misery and get a Leaf (or Bolt)

Yes. Not my point. My point was that the Kona is a sub-compact SUV and not near the size of a Rav4. Way too small for a family, and based on ride height, weight and size etc. I'm wondering if it will have the same safety issues the Juke had.

They look cool, but... tiny.

 

[bobandsherry]

Elon Musk apparently inherited the "reality distortion field" that was generated for so long by the late Steve Jobs.

Difference is I don't think Jobs ever used "volunteers" to make deliveries. I just scratch my head and ask why people would volunteer their time that essentially just makes Musk millions and millions.

My Experience Volunteering At Tampa Tesla Delivery Center

 

[bobandsherry]

More good news for Tesla:

https://electrek.co/2018/10/01/tesla-production-record-q3-deliveries-crazier/

Not sure the market considers that "good news", a momentary surge and then reality hit.... down just over 1% on "good news", and down 2.5% from it's intraday high. And this is with DOW and NASDAQ up for the day.

Perhaps profit taking, but if people truly believed the "good news" story then it should be a "hold" instead of "sell".

 

[ERD50]

...., but at least give them a little credit for getting there, eventually.

Ummm, what does that even mean? "credit for getting there, eventually?" I don't have a time machine. Are you saying that if/when Tesla delivers $35,000 Model 3's, that I would deny it?

You just derail into non-sense.

-ERD50

 

[oneill225]

Not sure the market considers that "good news", a momentary surge and then reality hit.... down just over 1% on "good news", and down 2.5% from it's intraday high. And this is with DOW and NASDAQ up for the day.
Perhaps profit taking, but if people truly believed the "good news" story then it should be a "hold" instead of "sell".

I bought today at 304.95. I now have a sell at 314.20 (I am also holding other Tesla shares for the longer-term).

This strategy of buying dips and selling on upward swings has worked well for me with volatile stocks and a volatile market overall. I would not keep buying Tesla on the dips if I did not believe that the upward trajectory will continue.

Why volatile today? hard to say, but most of the auto stocks are down due to weak sales year to year.

 

[bobandsherry]

I bought today at 304.95. I now have a sell at 314.20 (I am also holding other Tesla shares for the longer-term).

This strategy of buying dips and selling on upward swings has worked well for me with volatile stocks and a volatile market overall. I would not keep buying Tesla on the dips if I did not believe that the upward trajectory will continue.

Why volatile today? hard to say, but most of the auto stocks are down due to weak sales year to year.

Day trading, OK. But since this thread started with question on thoughts of buying Tesla it is basically flat. In that same period S&P is up about 25%, DOW 30% and Nasdaq 35%. So if I had a time machine the answer to OP is DON'T BUY. That's my same advise today, except if you are short term/day trader. But that's not investing in company.

 

[kcowan]

Elon Musk apparently inherited the "reality distortion field" that was generated for so long by the late Steve Jobs.

SpaceX, Battery Technology, Solar City, Tesla. Seems like many related ventures. Jobs at least narrowed his focus. Hopefully his new ChB can help him to focus and be more realistic. ISTR they has to remove him from Paypal CEO during its formative days?

 

[JoeWras]

Interesting article from an EV fan (and writer) in the UK. She was going to an event about her latest book, left plenty of time for a recharge, and was stymied by infrastructure. There's a good reason there is still a lot of range anxiety out there.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...s-good-luck-finding-charging-point-works.html

That’s fine if, once I’ve logged in, the power supply is actually working. But last weekend it wasn’t. I’d stopped at Todhills Services in Cumbria to top up but found that the charge point was offline.
Fortunately, I had enough power left to reach the next service station, at Gretna — only to find on arrival that neither of its charge points was working.

 

[oneill225]

Day trading, OK. But since this thread started with question on thoughts of buying Tesla it is basically flat. In that same period S&P is up about 25%, DOW 30% and Nasdaq 35%. So if I had a time machine the answer to OP is DON'T BUY. That's my same advise today, except if you are short term/day trader. But that's not investing in company.

I understand. I certainly cannot argue with just owning (or mostly owning) market index funds. Do you advise this for all individual stocks or just TSLA?

I am not really a "day trader". For example, I may end up sitting on a buy for months before it sells at the price I am hoping for. It is really a strategy of buying good companies on a big drop and then selling when they come back up 3 or 4 percent (if they ever do).

Many ways to skin the cat. Good luck.

 

[ERD50]

SpaceX, Battery Technology, Solar City, Tesla. Seems like many related ventures. Jobs at least narrowed his focus. Hopefully his new ChB can help him to focus and be more realistic. ISTR they has to remove him from Paypal CEO during its formative days?

I dunno. For Jobs, it was software, computer hardware, then computer chips (they worked closely with MOT and IBM on the PowerPC series of microprocessors), then he jumped to NEXT to build a new computer hardware and software (unix based), and back to Apple with a NEXT-based OS, jumped from PowerPC to Intel, dealt with PIXAR originally as a hardware and software company, before he was dragged into producing content (commercials, CGI, shorts, and eventually full length animation).

And a music player, and a music store, and a phone, then AppleTV (I think that was still during Job's time?). They even changed the name of the company from "Apple Computer" to "Apple".

Not sure that qualifies as a narrow focus for Jobs.

-ERD50

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

Difference is I don't think Jobs ever used "volunteers" to make deliveries. I just scratch my head and ask why people would volunteer their time that essentially just makes Musk millions and millions.

My Experience Volunteering At Tampa Tesla Delivery Center

You ask why people are volunteering.

The reason is the people who drive them realize how amazing the vehicles are. The car improves in your driveway during software updates. The car has a 98% recovery rate when stolen (average recovery rate is in the 50's). #1 for satisfaction according to Consumer reports. Model S was the safest car ever tested.

The owners of these vehicles know what its like to drive them.

But, this thread will continue to get posts suggesting EV's are inferior, that 310 miles of range is not sufficient, that there is this one lady who couldn't figure out how to charge her car, etc etc.

Obviously some of you won't buy an EV. No problem with that. Other people will drive them and collect the 10,450 in rebates and credits, and enjoy the silent ride with no smelly fumes or gas stations in their lives.

 

[bobandsherry]

You ask why people are volunteering.

The reason is the people who drive them realize how amazing the vehicles are. The car improves in your driveway during software updates. The car has a 98% recovery rate when stolen (average recovery rate is in the 50's). #1 for satisfaction according to Consumer reports. Model S was the safest car ever tested.

The owners of these vehicles know what its like to drive them.

But, this thread will continue to get posts suggesting EV's are inferior, that 310 miles of range is not sufficient, that there is this one lady who couldn't figure out how to charge her car, etc etc.

Obviously some of you won't buy an EV. No problem with that. Other people will drive them and collect the 10,450 in rebates and credits, and enjoy the silent ride with no smelly fumes or gas stations in their lives.

Confused, as EV is not only Tesla, there's other competitors. And further, I've made no indication on my intent to buy or not buy an EV. That's not what the thread is about. But for company to operate needing to use volunteers shows that the company has lacked foresight on how to distribute vehicles and is not a sustainable model, therefore is not a company I'd invest in.

 

[bobandsherry]

I understand. I certainly cannot argue with just owning (or mostly owning) market index funds. Do you advise this for all individual stocks or just TSLA?

I am not really a "day trader". For example, I may end up sitting on a buy for months before it sells at the price I am hoping for. It is really a strategy of buying good companies on a big drop and then selling when they come back up 3 or 4 percent (if they ever do).

Many ways to skin the cat. Good luck.

Nah, I invest in separate companies as well. Just that the index's paint a broad picture of the health of the market just so people don't think I've cherry picked

But for kicks and giggles, here's chart of the top companies (based on % of my investment portfolio) I'm invested in long along with how Tesla performed. But I also have $$ in S&P and Russell 2000 index too.

Guess we can revisit this in another 18 months and see how Tesla performs.

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

Todays news: Chevy Bolt sales are down 41% from last year. Tesla model 3 sales are surging. Who could have predicted this?