Thoughts on TESLA

[beowulf]

I believe EVs are the future for cars, and at some point, in about 30 to 40 years, fossil fuel burners will no longer be sold. Not so sure about trucks - lots of new technology needed for 18 wheelers to be EVs. One thing I am sure of is that Tesla is a pioneer at the moment. When that moment passes, they will be a footnote in the history books as every other car maker comes out with their own EVs. I will not buy an EV until they are mass produced by many manufacturers, high capacity charging stations are as common as gas stations and there are many, many choices for repairs and maintenance. It's not like the early days of automobiles when it was a clunker or a horse. A Tesla is a want, not a need. I can still buy a perfectly suitable gas burner for about $25K that will last at least 10 years with maintenance available almost anywhere in the US. Invest accordingly.

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

Well, I gave you a chance. But instead of taking back your erroneous statement that "Volvo ... no longer will make ICE cars starting in 3 months.", you diverted the topic to other EV numbers.

But I'm feeling generous today. I'll give you another chance to explain to us what the Volvo story really is. Get that right, and I'll still give you 90% of your credibility rating back. Fail, and you are in negative numbers.

It's easy - instead of reading the EV fanbois interpretation or some headline of what Volvo said, just tell us what Volvo actually said, and what it means. Hint - it certainly doesn't mean they won't sell a car with an ICE 3 months from now.

What does "new models" mean? Another hint: I can still buy a Ford Mustang, a model introduced over 50 years ago, in a time before catalytic converters, electronic fuel injection, air bags, ABS, ECM, cassette decks, etc. That's a long time, and many advances ago

-ERD50

For the past 48 hours you've chosen to be condescending with me.

Who knows why you didn't choose to have a regular discussion.

Nobody cares about your crediblity point system. I don't care about your opinion.

Maybe you're this way all the time. Maybe you're this way because the Cubs keep losing and are out of the playoffs.

It doesn't matter.

Hopefully in the future, you'll not be condescending with others.

I doubt I'll have anything more to say to you.

 

[Independent]

Ferrari, BMW, Maserati, Jaguar, Volvo, Etal. When will they realize that they have no future?

If carmakers need quality electric vehicles to compete, I think Jaguar is in the game:
https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/2019-jaguar-i-pace-the-electric-cat-leaps-first-drive-review

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

I believe EVs are the future for cars, and at some point, in about 30 to 40 years, fossil fuel burners will no longer be sold. Not so sure about trucks - lots of new technology needed for 18 wheelers to be EVs. One thing I am sure of is that Tesla is a pioneer at the moment. When that moment passes, they will be a footnote in the history books as every other car maker comes out with their own EVs. I will not buy an EV until they are mass produced by many manufacturers, high capacity charging stations are as common as gas stations and there are many, many choices for repairs and maintenance. It's not like the early days of automobiles when it was a clunker or a horse. A Tesla is a want, not a need. I can still buy a perfectly suitable gas burner for about $25K that will last at least 10 years with maintenance available almost anywhere in the US. Invest accordingly.

You're absolutely right, Tesla's aren't needs...But thats like saying who needs waygu beef or crab legs (shoutout to Robbie B, my favorite poster) when there's a perfectly good McDonalds in town...If car safety is your priority and whether you have 4 million in the brokerage or 3.9 is not an issue, then there's Tesla. At some point in life, one realizes you can't take your bank account to the graveyard. Might as well prioritize car safety and avoid the graveyard.

 

[ERD50]

For the past 48 hours you've chosen to be condescending with me.

Who knows why you didn't choose to have a regular discussion.

Nobody cares about your crediblity point system. I don't care about your opinion.

Maybe you're this way all the time. Maybe you're this way because the Cubs keep losing and are out of the playoffs.

It doesn't matter.

Hopefully in the future, you'll not be condescending with others.

I doubt I'll have anything more to say to you.

So you think it is OK to make false statements, and "condescending" to ask for a correction?

My definition of a "regular discussion" means using accurate facts. What is your definition?

I'm actually trying to help you - I gave you a chance to recant your false statement and set it straight. That would help people take what you say in the future as having some merit. You decline to correct your false statement, and then divert from it. Maybe it was just a mistake that you could have corrected and move forward, but instead you change the subject - all the way to my beloved Cubbies!

Hah! Yes, I stayed up late, and the Cubbies lost. The other team played a better game, fair and square. Good for them. Fact.

Seriously, your approach does nothing to help your cause of promoting EVs, or Tesla.

-ERD50

 

[beowulf]

Geez, take a breath. By googling Volvo going electric, it instantly became apparent that Volvo will NO LONGER DESIGN new ICE engines starting in 2019. However, it will continue to produce cars with ICE engines for at least another several years, possible the mid 2020s. So you are both right to some degree. It’s just a matter of how you parse the words. BTW, the Cubbies have a fairly new Spring Training stadium in the Proenix area that’s sort of a scale model of Wrigley Field. Great place to see them train.

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

Yes I also heard that they got some more tents just to hide the unsold inventory.
I agree with both.
I don't think reporting rumours aids in the discussion (like I did about the tents above). But when the subsidies dry up, what then?

When the tax credits reduce in 2019 and expire completely in 2020, I'm sure that will cause some Tesla buyers to go elsewhere.

Its also possible they'll be extended by the government.

Its also possible they'll be cancelled, for being economically unfair or as a burden to tax revenue.

They're presence made me buy twice this year.

 

[oneill225]

If carmakers need quality electric vehicles to compete, I think Jaguar is in the game:
https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/2019-jaguar-i-pace-the-electric-cat-leaps-first-drive-review

I like the I-Pace a lot. Just a little too far past my price point.

 

[nash031]

If car safety is your priority and whether you have 4 million in the brokerage or 3.9 is not an issue, then there's Tesla. At some point in life, one realizes you can't take your bank account to the graveyard. Might as well prioritize car safety and avoid the graveyard.

You can prioritize car safety at way less than $75-90K. And very few people have $4MM in assets. When discussing the value of the stock, that's a key thing, kind of as I was saying when oneill compared TSLA to AAPL and it's $1000 smartphones. Teslas are inaccessible - even the Model 3s - to the majority of the public. Doesn't mean there's not a market nor that the company isn't long-term viable, it just means - in my opinion - the company is overvalued at present.

All that said, if I had $4MM in assets right now, I'd have a Model S, I'm pretty sure, and not for safety but just because I think they're pretty awesome cars. But I don't, so I don't!

 

[NW-Bound]

... if I had $4MM in assets right now, I'd have a Model S, I'm pretty sure, and not for safety but just because I think they're pretty awesome cars. But I don't, so I don't!

Is $4M in assets the threshold for people to buy a Model S?

I believe a lot of Model S owners have but a fraction of that level. And there are people with more who do not want one.

So, it's just a matter of personal preference and priority.

 

[braumeister]

Here and there, among these 1,000+ posts, there are a number of useful insights and relevant considerations.

HOWEVER, there has also been an unusual amount of unpleasantness, member-to-member, IMHO.

It would be a shame if this thread had to be shut down because of the actions of a few. I feel fairly confident that won't be necessary, and that the good sense of our members will prevail. Please prove me right.

 

[indiajust]

Yugo quality? Not according to the current owners, professional reviewers and the NHTSA (which gives all three Tesla models their top safety rating). What do you know that they are missing?

Not safety, quality. As in consistently hitting the target. Tesla makes wonderful prototypes. With huge labor and rework costs, they can ship a few of these artistic creations. But they have not demonstrated any design for manufacturability. There is no method to the madness. No incremental improvement process mentality to climb toward success.



Making cars in volume is supposed to be dull, repetitive, consistent, systematic. No one in Toyota or Honda camps on the production floor and sells that as a good thing. It is an utter failure for mass market production.


Tesla is exciting and risky. Not the right skill mix for auto mfg. Lovely ideas, great tech, pitiful execution.


In any other company, a product rollout this poor would lead to massive layoffs. Imagine what would happen to GM stock if they missed delivery dates by 2 years?! Or Ford?! There would be blood in the streets.


Elon will live and die by his charm and charisma. Prophets always do.

 

[nash031]

Is $4M in assets the threshold for people to buy a Model S?

I believe a lot of Model S owners have but a fraction of that level. And there are people with more who do not want one.

So, it's just a matter of personal preference and priority.

I'd probably have one if I were already FI (which is my pending pension +$1.6MM or so) and still working. I'm close to that, but life circumstances dictate that buying a Model S is not a wise decision right now regardless of how well off we are or are not!

 

[oneill225]

Not safety, quality. As in consistently hitting the target. Tesla makes wonderful prototypes. With huge labor and rework costs, they can ship a few of these artistic creations. But they have not demonstrated any design for manufacturability. There is no method to the madness. No incremental improvement process mentality to climb toward success.
Making cars in volume is supposed to be dull, repetitive, consistent, systematic. No one in Toyota or Honda camps on the production floor and sells that as a good thing. It is an utter failure for mass market production.
Tesla is exciting and risky. Not the right skill mix for auto mfg. Lovely ideas, great tech, pitiful execution.
In any other company, a product rollout this poor would lead to massive layoffs. Imagine what would happen to GM stock if they missed delivery dates by 2 years?! Or Ford?! There would be blood in the streets.
Elon will live and die by his charm and charisma. Prophets always do.

A little harsh. They have only been producing the Model 3 for one year and are now nearing 100,000 total and 4,000+ per week. Of course there have been problems and bottlenecks, but they have worked through them and will continue to do so. In a year, Tesla has become the 5th largest producer of sedans in the US and a market disrupter for the legacy car makers.

https://electrek.co/2018/10/03/tesla-model-3-pressure-bmw/

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/

The Model S and Model X are also being produced in the thousands and most reviews I have seen are very positive. Obviously, these models are not intended to rival F-150 production numbers. They are high-end luxury models.

Your take on the two-year wait list is interesting. I would say it reflects a strong demand, not a design and manufacturing failure. Buyers are warned of the long waits before putting down deposits and, yet, the list remains long. That being said, it must be frustrating to wait that long and Tesla is working to improve delivery performance, but I think they deserve a little time considering they are taking on a 100 year old industry.

 

[Lakewood90712]

On July 24 , I received a Tesla Motors update . I don't remember signing up for Tesla Motors updates.. I did attended technical training for Tesla Powerwall, so maybe I got on an e-mail list from that.

Here is the text:

"Model 3 is available to order, and no reservation is required in the US. We’re now offering all our best options—including our Long Range and Performance configurations with dual motor all-wheel drive. You can design and order yours today for delivery in approximately 2–4 months."

I did not follow the link, but it infers the wait is 2-4 mo, for any version with no reservation, even on the money loosing base model, not a 2 year order backlog.

 

[bobandsherry]

Where did you see that they are losing money on any model they currently sell?

 

[oneill225]

I did not follow the link, but it infers the wait is 2-4 mo, for any version with no reservation, even on the money loosing base model, not a 2 year order backlog.

What makes you think the current base model is a money loser?

https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/06/01/teslas-model-3-might-cost-how-much-to-build/

Tesla projects that they will be able to sell the Model 3 (for a profit) at $35,000 in the first half of next year.

Thanks for the update on the wait list.

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

Tesla is producing 6,000 Model 3's per week

 

[oneill225]

Tesla is producing 6,000 Model 3's per week

That may be their goal, but actual production has been between 4 and 5 thousand per week. It also varies week to week.

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

That may be their goal, but actual production has been between 4 and 5 thousand per week. It also varies week to week.

On 8/23/18, Bloomberg estimated 6278 model 3's as their weekly production rate.

 

[Lakewood90712]

What makes you think the current base model is a money loser?

https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/06/01/teslas-model-3-might-cost-how-much-to-build/

Tesla projects that they will be able to sell the Model 3 (for a profit) at $35,000 in the first half of next year.

Thanks for the update on the wait list.

That is from Tesla. Tesla predicts they will be able to sell base 3 at a profit sometime in the first half of 2019.

I have quite a few acquaintances with Tesla's , include model 3's , and one of those Model 3's he took delivery on last week was way north of the average as equipped price $50k in quoted in the article.

The US Auto industry has sold loss leaders for a hundred years , although Ford and GM have started bailing out of the non luxury car business. Take the F150 for instance. Even with the high volume, I doubt ford makes much on a bare bones work truck , but look at the "King Ranch" and " Raptor" high end models $60-K-$80K.

PS I may just follow the e-mail link and try to order a base model just for kicks. Stay Tuned.

 

[oneill225]

On 8/23/18, Bloomberg estimated 6278 model 3's as their weekly production rate.

Total Model 3 production last quarter (three months) was 51,000; I will let you do the math, but that was not 6,000 per week.

 

[oneill225]

That is from Tesla. Tesla predicts they will be able to sell base 3 at a profit sometime in the first half of 2019.

I have quite a few acquaintances with Tesla's , include model 3's , and one of those Model 3's he took delivery on last week was way north of the average as equipped price $50k in quoted in the article.

The US Auto industry has sold loss leaders for a hundred years , although Ford and GM have started bailing out of the non luxury car business. Take the F150 for instance. Even with the high volume, I doubt ford makes much on a bare bones work truck , but look at the "King Ranch" and " Raptor" high end models $60-K-$80K.

PS I may just follow the e-mail link and try to order a base model just for kicks. Stay Tuned.

There is no loss leader being sold right now. That is why the price is higher than $35,000.

 

[beowulf]

Just google “Has Tesla ever had a profitable year to date?” The answer is NO. They may in 2019, but that’s in the future. Tesla has never had a positive price to earnings ratio.

 

[oneill225]

Just google “Has Tesla ever had a profitable year to date?” The answer is NO. They may in 2019, but that’s in the future. Tesla has never had a positive price to ratings ratio.

I think we are talking about the profit on a "base" Model 3 (but I am starting to have doubts). Every current Tesla model (including the base) is currently sold at a profit. The larger profit challenge is to sell the Model 3 "base" for $35,000. Tesla is predicting that will happen in the first half of next year (based on history, it may take longer).

Overall profitability for the company is being predicted as happening soon, as well.