Thoughts on TESLA

[NW-Bound]

I never say autonomous cars are an impossibility.

But they have to do a whole lot more to impress me. Perhaps it is because I can see the difficulties that they are trying to solve. If anything, I appreciate what they are trying to do more than the public does.

And no, I do not know to set a timetable on this. It is hard to put a schedule on human innovations.

 

[NW-Bound]

I agree that we do not know and cannot know until these systems are legalized for full autonomous driving and companies like Tesla and Waymo roll-out the capability. Can you at least concede that it is coming and we are close (within a decade) of seeing full autonomous driving becoming a reality?

Waymo has been very careful about its technology, and has stated publicly that they will not release half-baked products. It has to be very safe (however they define it). And we do not know how close they are.

On the other hand, Tesla has no qualms about releasing improvements as they have it. Still a lot of human overrides as I can see. No, Tesla is nowhere near close to full autonomy.

 

[Ready]

The analogy to airplanes is relevant. I look at Tesla EAP the same way. Just using EAP without driver intervention is not ready yet. But the combination of using EAP with the driver intervening when required makes me feel far more confident than allowing distracted humans to drive without any of this technology to assist them.

 

[ERD50]

The analogy to airplanes is relevant. I look at Tesla EAP the same way. Just using EAP without driver intervention is not ready yet. But the combination of using EAP with the driver intervening when required makes me feel far more confident than allowing distracted humans to drive without any of this technology to assist them.

But what we don't know is - overall, will this level of imperfect EAP lead to drivers allowing them to be distracted more (over confident), which could lead to more accidents?

We've seen some of that already, but I think it is too early to know if the net is positive/negative overall.

Also - this probably belongs in the "Self Driving Cars" thread, unless we are talking Tesla specific issues.

http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f27/self-driving-cars-85740.html

A mere 1270 posts there!

-ERD50

 

[eroscott]

...
But the combination of using EAP with the driver intervening when required makes me feel far more confident than allowing distracted humans to drive without any of this technology to assist them.

This is a true point. I use Tesla Autopilot in probably 95% of my driving even on local suburb roads of 35-55 MPH. My hands are always on the wheel 'feeling' for anything 'unnatural' or non-instinctive (39 yrs driving).

When it is engaged it is automatically staying centered in lane and looking at one and two cars ahead of me (radar bouncing underneath cars ahead). If I am glancing down at the map or music selection or off to the side at a store sign or car ... and the car in front brakes suddenly or someone comes to my lane then I know
the car will respond in a fraction of a second.

Sure it occasionally gets confused in a complicated intersection or one on a curve or if there are oddly painted lines or very faded lines ... but my hands on the wheel can tell immediately if something is unnatural.

 

[eroscott]

... the Model 3 overall, way ahead of any competitor in terms of drivetrain/power/systems technically. ...

Not sure if this post of mine got lost and goes along with your point.

Owner (who is an electrical engineer):
There indeed are zero fuses on the 12v side. All circuit protection is performed solid-state, which in practice means a transistor (MOSFET) is used to switch all the loads, and the body controllers monitor the current going though each of these and in the event of an overload, it just switches off the transistor. It's much faster and safer, and allows a more reliable and easy to diagnose car. It is more expensive, but this was needed to make the M3 fault tolerant to achieve full self driving with confidence.

Owner (who is an aero engineer):
Wow. That's possibly a bigger change to how a car works than anything else Tesla has done to date.

 

[Midpack]

I agree that we do not know and cannot know until these systems are legalized for full autonomous driving and companies like Tesla and Waymo roll-out the capability. Can you at least concede that it is coming and we are close (within a decade) of seeing full autonomous driving becoming a reality?

Wouldn’t you have to qualify under what conditions as well? Waymo, and to a lesser extent Tesla, are close to level 3-4 autonomous driving under nearly ideal road and weather conditions. They’ve gone a long way to sorting out basic driving and identifying stationary be moving obstacles, but not all road and weather conditions. Some of the rollout sceanarios I’ve read have said we’ll see them on highways and cities with restrictions long before elsewhere under all conditions.

 

[eroscott]

I can't recall if I ever posted some videos of what the Tesla cameras see. This is a 3rd party interpreting the data streams that correspond with the Tesla camera footage they are also taking.

Tesla autopilot recognition of roadside structures

Video:

 

[eroscott]

Again this is a 3rd party interpreting the data streams that correspond with the Tesla camera footage they are also taking.

Tesla autopilot in moderate to dense fog

 

[oneill225]

Wouldn’t you have to qualify under what conditions as well? Waymo, and to a lesser extent Tesla, are close to level 3-4 autonomous driving under nearly ideal road and weather conditions. They’ve gone a long way to sorting out basic driving and identifying stationary be moving obstacles, but not all road and weather conditions. Some of the rollout sceanarios I’ve read have said we’ll see them on highways and cities with restrictions long before elsewhere under all conditions.

I don't think we will see it happen overnight or in a rapid fashion (full autonomous driving). It will be phased-in over time starting in small controlled environments and expanding over the coming years as the technology and psychology evolves. I think a decade or less is doable, but we shall see.

However fast the transition, Tesla is building up a large volume of intellectual property and data, as we speak. This is unrelated to the battery and motor tech that they are currently leading with. Of course, a better battery by a company other than Tesla may arrive tomorrow, but until then, Tesla is still the best investment option if you want to get in early on all of these "new" technologies.

 

[eroscott]

Just now...

 

[imoldernu]

Haven't been following this thread, so not up to date.
Posting because I went to what is the equivalent of Whole Food Market... not my usual store, and was surprised to see at the edge of the vast parking lot , twelve "Tesla Pumps".

Certainly not a major car brand in our town where the median household income is $47K.

 

[aja8888]

Haven't been following this thread, so not up to date.
Posting because I went to what is the equivalent of Whole Food Market... not my usual store, and was surprised to see at the edge of the vast parking lot , twelve "Tesla Pumps".

Certainly not a major car brand in our town where the median household income is $47K.

The chargers are for the high rollers passing through!

 

[eroscott]

Haven't been following this thread, so not up to date.
Posting because I went to what is the equivalent of Whole Food Market... not my usual store, and was surprised to see at the edge of the vast parking lot , twelve "Tesla Pumps".

Certainly not a major car brand in our town where the median household income is $47K.

My son used that one yesterday on the way thru a multi-state travel to the in-laws. I've used that one in the past taking another son to college. Nice little place to eat inside and a few place within close walking distances (see link below).

They put the regular Superchargers with several pedestals near traveling highways and are mainly used for roadtrips.

https://www.tesla.com/findus/location/supercharger/peruillinoissupercharger

https://www.hy-vee.com/corporate/our-company/sustainability/

<snip>
Electric Vehicle Charging
Electric ChargingHy-Vee is working to make it easier for those who have chosen electric vehicles as their preferred mode of transportation. Partnering with ChargePoint and Tesla, Hy-Vee now has electric vehicle (EV) charging stations at locations in throughout our eight-state area. For more information on locations to charge your electric vehicle, please go to the US Department of Energy's Alternative Fuels Data Center website.

 

[imoldernu]

How did you find me?... I guess I counted wrong...
Our Liberty Village CCRC is about 200 yards from the store.

 

[eroscott]

How did you find me?... I guess I counted wrong...
Our CCRC is about 200 yards from the store.

I saw where you were from and I have been there. Great store. All the Tesla Supercharge info is public knowledge. I just went to the un-official (crowdsourced) site called: https://supercharge.info/map
I searched for Peru, IL and that is where it put the search point.

 

[NW-Bound]

I can't recall if I ever posted some videos of what the Tesla cameras see. This is a 3rd party interpreting the data streams that correspond with the Tesla camera footage they are also taking.

Tesla autopilot recognition of roadside structures

Video:

I am reminded of the following saying.

"What a bikini reveals is interesting, but what it conceals is vital" -- Anon.

It's too bad that there was no recorded onboard video from the Teslas that were involved in serious accidents, so Tesla and the public could see what the camera/computer missed. I counted at least one that drove under a trailer, several that drove into a parked vehicle on the highway, and several that drove into a highway barrier.

Even when a Tesla owner overrides the AP to prevent an accident, I don't think the car reports any detail back to the car maker, other than some basic info such as the time and location of such occurrence. There is not a whole lot for an engineer to work with to see how to improve the system.

On the other hand, the dedicated test vehicles like Waymo cars can carry a lot of recording equipment, and the engineers can study each mishap and test new software after-the-fact to improve it. And they can also build up a large inventory of street videos to retroactively test anything they want to.

Full disclosure: I own no shares of Tesla, Waymo (Google), or any self-driving-car technology. Not even Nvidia, who makes CPU for use in these cars.

 

[eroscott]

Even when a Tesla owner overrides the AP to prevent an accident, I don't think the car reports any detail back to the car maker, other than some basic info such as the time and location of such occurrence. There is not a whole lot for an engineer to work with to see how to improve the system.

You are incorrect.

People have been able to track some of the video snippets being sent back to Tesla cloud based on odd situations and errors. One example is construction zone overrides. People have found this out in multiple ways (monitor wifi down to types/IPs, physical access/hardware hacks to get access, etc).

There are trigger events that Tesla can turn on for situations to gather videos and detailed data which they can use to refine their test bed.

It has to be narrowed down tho to useful events because there are over a billion miles of AutoPilot data.

______________________________

And over a billion of miles of Shadow data (orange text below). Car collecting unusual situations when not in Autpilot but doing autopilot simulation.

https://electrek.co/2018/07/17/tesla-autopilot-miles-shadow-mode-report/

 

[NW-Bound]

I scanned through the link above, and did not see more details than how many miles Tesla cars were driven. If it's video that is sent up, it has to be very selective because the required bandwidth would be huge.

It was Tesla who said that there was no recorded video in the crashes. Perhaps it is different now, but that was what I read.

 

[eroscott]

If it's video that is sent up, it has to be very selective because the required bandwidth would be huge.

Keep in mind that some data in downloads (HD maps) and uploads are mainly restricted to wi-fi connections. There are exceptions.

I follow many sources for Tesla information. There are several car forums and some have very technical people in and outside of the USA. They have seen the trigger definitions and video data being transferred.

Your point about only 'some basic info such as the time and location of such occurrence' is super naive and I was surprised you being technical oriented would have thought that. No worries. I enjoy the discussion and hope my insights, pictures, and links help some out there.

 

[Ronstar]

I find the autopilot recognition of roadside structures interesting. I was working with a group of firms in object recognition about 10 years ago. At that time, they had a library of signs in a sign database. The system on board vehicles at that time could recognize a sign by comparison to records in the sign database. I don't think that the technology at that time was advanced enough to create a reaction to the sign.

We used to meet in a secret warehouse location and had to sign confidentiality agreements before seeing the data and operation. I imagine that all players involved in this are more tight-lipped about their technology today.

That said, now that I'm retired I have less interest in how it works, but I would like a Tesla or "Tesla-like' vehicle someday. But about half of my driving now is long trips exceeding 2000 miles per trip. I don't want to be subject to recharging locations that are not convenient to me - either location or time wise. Hopefully the operating range will increase along with a greater density of charging stations.

 

[Ready]

This video shows how a Tesla helps an owner avoid an impending crash before the owner has a chance to react on his own to stop the car. Pretty impressive.

https://electrek.co/2018/12/22/tesla-autopilot-avoids-crash-video/

 

[NW-Bound]

... Your point about only 'some basic info such as the time and location of such occurrence' is super naive and I was surprised you being technical oriented would have thought that. No worries. I enjoy the discussion and hope my insights, pictures, and links help some out there.

I do not see how Tesla can have the manpower to study all the AP overrides that happen everyday.

I am curious if even Waymo can look in details at all the daily data that they collect with their fleet of test cars, which are of course a lot fewer than Tesla cars out there.

If Tesla central computer can see that the AP keeps getting overridden in one spot of the freeway, I can see them triggering the storage of a selected video segment to study it. I can only surmise what they do with it. But to study every single AP override, well, how many occurrences happen in each day ? Do we have a number?

And I enjoy the conversation too. As anyone can tell, I am not even an SDC aficionado to follow this field that close. Every so often, out of curiosity and mostly due to threads like this on this forum, I did a quick search on the Web for an update, and looked on youtube to see experiences of Tesla owners.

Waymo claims that they have the highway cruising done long ago, and indeed for the last couple of years they have been testing almost exclusively on city streets. Every time I leave home, I see one or two Waymo cars when I run my errand. They are all over town!

Just yesterday, I searched youtube again to see what Tesla AP was up to. On one video clip where the car exited the freeway and took the ramp, commenters debated whether the AP was able to recognize the traffic light at the end of the ramp to stop, because it was not clear. Well, that's far short of Waymo cars as I could tell.

 

[NW-Bound]

This video shows how a Tesla helps an owner avoid an impending crash before the owner has a chance to react on his own to stop the car. Pretty impressive.

https://electrek.co/2018/12/22/tesla-autopilot-avoids-crash-video/

And then, there's video like the following with the title "Tesla AP 2018.26.3 almost rammed a parked car". See video at 2:00, where the car speed was around 15 mph.

It is evident to me that many Tesla owners love to tinker with the AP, and see what a new update would do. Does the company define what new capability an update provides? Seems to me it is left to car owners to find out for themselves.

I can say that this is a long way from a car that I can recommend for my mother, whose driving skill is not all that great anymore. She would not know to react fast enough from an AP misbehavior to save herself.

 

[Lakewood90712]

Autopilot

? How does any car brand autopilot make and process eye contact with another driver or pedestrian. Not beating on Tesla, the issue is generic.

My qualification to ask : 45 years of driving and over 1 million miles with no at fault accidents .

Defensive driving often comes down to subtle human traits and behaviors.