Thoughts on TESLA

[Just_Steve]

Auto pilot supposedly fails causing crash in NJ.
https://abc7ny.com/nj-man-involved-in-scary-crash-after-autopilot-tesla-veers-off-road/5133538/

 

[NW-Bound]

Auto pilot supposedly fails causing crash in NJ.
https://abc7ny.com/nj-man-involved-in-scary-crash-after-autopilot-tesla-veers-off-road/5133538/

From the article:

...The owner says the car's autopilot forced him to jump the curb and mow down several signs before coming to a muddy stop along Route 1 in North Brunswick. Bits and pieces of the Tesla were scattered along the northbound side of the highway...

Sounds like just another idiot who thinks the advanced cruise control system in his car is a truly autonomous autopilot, which it is not. He's lucky to be alive. He could have killed another driver or bystander too.

 

[NW-Bound]

Note: I offer the article below for your consideration since the author spends a deal of it comparing the German auto industry's attempts to build EVs to what Tesla is doing.

Here's one guy's take on how the Germans are approaching the EV. Basically, he seems to be saying 'to little, to late'. And, that the German auto industry (60% of Germany's economic growth according to the author) may be at risk. You be the judge.

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/10/to-all-german-automakers-believe-me-you-are-still-sleeping/

The comparison of Tesla with BMW is interesting, IMHO. Who knows what will happen? Time will tell.

Very interesting. Tesla does have the lead, but I do not see that as an irrevocable one. We will see how other car makers catch up, or fail to, in the days ahead.

 

[oneill225]

...But Tesla has dropped the price twice now - is it still working? Apparently not well enough.-ERD50

A good example of how Tesla can't win with some critics. If they don't lower the price they are just for the "rich" and if they do lower the price (as they have said they will for many months) they must be desperate to find buyers.

 

[ERD50]

A good example of how Tesla can't win with some critics. If they don't lower the price they are just for the "rich" and if they do lower the price (as they have said they will for many months) they must be desperate to find buyers.

Gimme/us a break.

If you really don't know the difference between lowering the price of the existing configurations because it appears demand has dropped, and offering a new lower priced model (lower/negative margin) to reach the lower end market, then you really should stick to broad based index funds.

Show me ( again - "Show me" - don't change the subject!) where Tesla said it was their plan to lower the price for existing configurations. Clearly, Musk has been saying from the start they plan to offer a $35,000 base model.

https://electrek.co/2019/01/24/tesla-model-3-base-35000/

Tesla’s Model 3 is already quite successful based on many metrics, but Tesla is still failing on arguably the most important promise: a starting price of $35,000.

Is the standard Model 3 still coming and where is it now?

The price has always been one of the biggest features of the Model 3.

It was part of Elon Musk’s original “secret master plan” for Tesla: make a compelling mass-market all-electric vehicle.

With a base price of $44,000 before incentives, the Model 3 is not quite there yet.

The $35,000 version is supposed to be enabled by a smaller battery pack and an interior with fewer features and different materials.

It was always part of the plan.

Back in the summer of 2017, we reported on Tesla’s Model 3 battery pack architecture and the automaker already had plans for the standard battery pack at the time.

It was supposed to be available just a few months after the higher-end versions of the car, but then production hell happened and the company had to revisit its priorities and focus on ramping up production in a sustainable way.

Over a year later and Tesla still lists the standard battery pack as being “4 to 6 months” away.

-ERD50

 

[ERD50]

A good example of how Tesla can't win with some critics. If they don't lower the price they are just for the "rich" and if they do lower the price (as they have said they will for many months) they must be desperate to find buyers.

Let me answer that from a different angle.

It has nothing to do with winning/losing from any 'critics' viewpoint. Why change the subject? Is it because you don't have an answer that is positive for Tesla?

Lowering the US price twice in a short time while having limited US supply while they feed the pipeline in the EU looks like trouble. What other (rational) explanation is there?

-ERD50

 

[Rianne]

haha, I kept thinking of that scene from Godfather, could not find it.


I think this thread should be renamed "Heaven for Engineers, All Others Join at Your Own Peril"

 

[oneill225]

It has nothing to do with winning/losing from any 'critics' viewpoint. Why change the subject? Is it because you don't have an answer that is positive for Tesla?
Lowering the US price twice in a short time while having limited US supply while they feed the pipeline in the EU looks like trouble. What other (rational) explanation is there?
-ERD50

I view lower prices for EVs (to include Tesla) to be good thing. If you choose to believe that it can only mean one thing (trouble), then I must agree to disagree. I think you will find much more "trouble" in the coming years.

 

[ERD50]

haha, I kept thinking of that scene from Godfather, could not find it.


I think this thread should be renamed "Heaven for Engineers, All Others Join at Your Own Peril"

No one forces anyone to read a thread. There are plenty of subjects here that would bore me to death. I avoid them. It's not so hard. There is even an "ignore thread" option, I think.

-ERD50

 

[ERD50]

I view lower prices for EVs (to include Tesla) to be good thing. If you choose to believe that it can only mean one thing (trouble), then I must agree to disagree. I think you will find much more "trouble" in the coming years.

Again, you avoid the question.

It wasn't about "lower prices for EVs" in general. It was about (now, follow carefully here...) Tesla lowering its US price on an existing configuration of their Model 3, two times, while their US supply is limited while they fill the EU pipeline.

Go back and re-read that, and let it sink in.

If you disagree with that looking bad for Tesla, please explain why. Otherwise, to 'agree to disagree' is just another way of you saying: "No, I do not have a rational explanation for how this could be good for Tesla".

-ERD50

 

[Rianne]

No one forces anyone to read a thread. There are plenty of subjects here that would bore me to death. I avoid them. It's not so hard. There is even an "ignore thread" option, I think.

-ERD50

I would never ignore you ERD50. I jest in a very serious and complicated thread, that is my right. One question, you are an engineer, right?

 

[ERD50]

I would never ignore you ERD50. I jest in a very serious and complicated thread, that is my right. One question, you are an engineer, right?

Oh, you can ignore me if you wish, I don't care (your loss! hah-hah! ).

But you keep commenting on a thread you aren't interest in - that strikes me as strange. Why not just ignore the thread?

"One question, you are an engineer, right?"

As John Prine sang " A question ain't really a question, if you know (or can reasonably guess!) the answer too". OK, I added "reasonably guess", but yes, I am an engineer. Surprise! And a stubborn one - or is that redundant?



-ERD50

 

[REWahoo]

But you keep commenting on a thread you aren't interest in - that strikes me as strange. Why not just ignore the thread?

For the same reason folks can't ignore a traffic accident when they drive by?

 

[Rianne]

But you keep commenting on a thread you aren't interest in - that strikes me as strange. Why not just ignore the thread?

-ERD50

Because it's fun and it irritates you.

 

[ERD50]

Because it's fun and it irritates you.

Oh, why didn't you just say so!

-ERD50

 

[Ronstar]

Lowering the US price twice in a short time while having limited US supply while they feed the pipeline in the EU looks like trouble. What other (rational) explanation is there?



-ERD50

Maybe because Musk promised to sell the 3 for $35k and the company feels compelled to at least get close to that price.

Tesla is a relatively new company. Maybe they are streamlining their operations as they mature to the point where their costs have decreased and they can afford to sell at a lower price.

 

[aja8888]

From a business strategy point of view (from one who has been there):

Back when I was in the "mill" working as Manager of Engineering, we were selling copper water tubing at a discounted price since demand was there, but so were the competitors. Water tube became a "loss leader" as our brilliant sales guys would say by selling more, "we would make it up on volume". It at that time was called "manufacturing contribution", or namely plant profit before "corporate costs were allocated back to the plant.

Given that the demand is s great for a $35,000 base M3, and at this moment there are no real competitors, why isn't Tesla selling as many of those as they can make and making up the loss of manufacturing contribution with volume? They could easily sell more higher priced cars to cover those M3 losses which is in effect building a baseload to work on over time. Couldn't they? Or maybe sell tons of batteries or solar tiles out of the Buffalo plant?

i mean look what happened to our water tube business and the plant during that time (search "American Brass, Ansonia Plant") and see the results.

 

[ERD50]

Because it's fun and it irritates you.

Don't miss another opportunity for fun.

http://www.early-retirement.org/for...-for-electric-vehicles-96228.html#post2189661


-ERD50

 

[oneill225]

Given that the demand is s great for a $35,000 base M3, and at this moment there are no real competitors, why isn't Tesla selling as many of those as they can make and making up the loss of manufacturing contribution with volume? They could easily sell more higher priced cars to cover those M3 losses which is in effect building a baseload to work on over time. Couldn't they? Or maybe sell tons of batteries or solar tiles out of the Buffalo plant?

From what I have read, that is exactly what they are trying to do (build economies of scale). There is a balance, however, because investors want to see profits and a great deal of money is still being poured into infrastructure like the plant in China, repair shops, charging systems, etc...

Give them a little time.

 

[kgtest]

I just saw that in Australia some homeowner was able to reduce his 4000/yr bill down to just 600...a whopping 85% reduction with the leverage of Solar Panels + the Tesla Powerball, and while him and 35k of his neighbors lost power he hadn't noticed until his Powerball texted him it started Backup Mode to alert him.

In sunny climates, this solar + powerball are the way to go.

https://electrek.co/2019/02/12/tesla-powerwall-sydney-blackout-house-cool-heatwave/

If a person got away with a $8k powerball plus a 15k solar system, putting the total system at $22k, the break even point is roughly 6.5 years. This actually makes a lot of sense since you can create flexibility with when to use your stored power during peak usage times. If you calculate out to 30 years you save yourself 80k in energy costs. Not too shabby.

 

[ERD50]

Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
Lowering the US price twice in a short time while having limited US supply while they feed the pipeline in the EU looks like trouble. What other (rational) explanation is there?

-ERD50

Maybe because Musk promised to sell the 3 for $35k and the company feels compelled to at least get close to that price.

Tesla is a relatively new company. Maybe they are streamlining their operations as they mature to the point where their costs have decreased and they can afford to sell at a lower price.

Well, it's an explanation, but I will (respectfully) question whether it is a rational one.

The $35,000 price was always for the base M3. Seems like a stretch to make a connection between that, and lowering the price on the higher level versions.

Occam's Razor is telling me it is far more likely that Tesla has dropped the US price of those higher level models because US demand has dropped. I'm not sure of too many things when it comes to Tesla, there is a lot of uncertainty in a lot of areas, but that one looks pretty plain to me.

edit/add - to your last point. Sure, I agree. And it seems they can't sell the M3 at the lower price yet, Musk has said so. But if the US demand has dropped off for the higher level models, and Tesla can't make the base M3 at a profit (yet), that's concerning.

Maybe they can manage to get the costs down between now and when the EU high-level model demand drops off? But that means lower sales in the US for now, and that just isn't going to look good. I suppose it could all come together at the right time, but I am skeptical.

-ERD50

 

[aja8888]

From what I have read, that is exactly what they are trying to do (build economies of scale). There is a balance, however, because investors want to see profits and a great deal of money is still being poured into infrastructure like the plant in China, repair shops, charging systems, etc...

Give them a little time.

My point was they have a competitive advantage, M3 product wise, "at the moment". I'm not so sure that they are wise trying to build "all cars for all people" concurrently and in different location and countries. Tesla can get over extended and end up losing the ship, and possibly being bought out of bankruptcy, especially if competition increases or the world economy goes into the toilet (even for a short while). The stock would be gone and if they came out of BK, they may be a different animal or under a competitor.

Our strategy with water tube became an albatross eventually and the corporation couldn't retain its market share and competitors from overseas ate us alive. The company is gone and the plants are closed.

https://www.ctpost.com/local/article/Ansonia-Copper-and-Brass-to-be-demolished-7003291.php

 

[oneill225]

My point was they have a competitive advantage, M3 product wise, "at the moment". I'm not so sure that they are wise trying to build "all cars for all people" concurrently and in different location and countries. Tesla can get over extended and end up losing the ship, and possibly being bought out of bankruptcy, especially if competition increases or the world economy goes into the toilet (even for a short while). The stock would be gone and if they came out of BK, they may be a different animal or under a competitor.

I don't necessarily disagree, but we do not know what kind of profit they are making off of the global sales. That may be where the biggest bang for the buck lies, currently. I will defer to their management to sort it out. Production capability is limited, but growing, and manufacturing costs are slowly coming down.

Luckily for Tesla, the competition for a Model 3 (or Model Y) is still another year or two away, so the "moment" is going to be there for, at least, 2019.

 

[bobandsherry]

Not any surprise that demand has wained. Tesla made big push to drive orders before year end, stealing any future demand into 2018. And on top of that decrease the tax incentive. Seems pretty simple to me.

 

[Blueskies123]

Maybe because Musk promised to sell the 3 for $35k and the company feels compelled to at least get close to that price.

Tesla is a relatively new company. Maybe they are streamlining their operations as they mature to the point where their costs have decreased and they can afford to sell at a lower price.

The cost of batteries is coming down so Tesla is passing the savings along. I think you can expect to see similar price reductions every year until electric cars are cheaper than internal combustion engines.