Three Cheers for TARP

Arguments about the appropriate level of government spending aside, I don't see how keeping taxes lower than what will cover spending is not just another form of "stimulus"...

If there's no final demand, it's all just whizzing in the wind. Fortunately, the economy does appear to be gradually improving. Deleveraging is going to be a long, slow slog, but we might just make it.

No particular love for unions, or automakers, but why shouldn't they get a share of the pie Wall Street got?
 
One of the things that IMO some confuse is that we might think that TARP worked, but it was a bad idea...


I don't think that the gvmt should force solvent companies to take forced investments in them by the gvmt with a required return to the gvmt...

I don't think that the gvmt should have taken over AIG, CITI, GM or Chrysler... maybe they should have helped them through bankruptcy or being wound down.... but direct ownerhship:confused: Reminds me of Venezuela

The gvmt did close down a number of firms.... or forced them to be sold etc... is that the way we want gvmt to work?


Finally... the total cost to the gvmt of this recession will be a lot more than we think... and I do not think that we have stopped paying yet...
 
You could make a similar argument that it was the Reagan tax cuts that pulled us out of recession, but it would (a) be oversimplistic to primarily attribute the recovery to that single event and (b) it would be confusing correlation with causation.

Just a coincidence?

Not a coincidence at all.

What I find fascinating about most people's understanding of macro economics is that they have, for [-]partisan political[/-] some reason, decided to only look at the Supply Curve or the Demand Curve of the economy. They ignore the big picture where equilibrium is formed at the point those two curves cross and that disequilibrium can be caused by either side.

So if you have a situation where supply constraints impede economic growth, the proper course of action is to remove those constraints. Evidence of a Supply constrained slump is elevated inflation in the face of high unemployment. That sounds a lot like the late 1970’s. And indeed, an oil embargo, high taxes and high regulation constrained supply. In that environment loose money only served to accelerate inflation. Given that backdrop, the proper policy response was to break the oil embargo, cut taxes, remove regulatory barriers to economic growth, and tighten monetary policy.

Fast forward to today, and the economic difficulties look nothing like those of the late 70’s. Instead of a supply constrained economy, our economy suffers from excess supply and inadequate demand. The big picture symptoms of a demand constrained economy are high unemployment and falling inflation, which is what we have today.

It’s telling that nearly all of the economists and pundits who predicted run away inflation because of monetary easing also suggest that reduced taxes and regulation are the keys to recovery. They’ve fundamentally misdiagnosed the problem because they only see the world through the supply side of the equation. They still think it's 1979. So they're stunned as inflation continues to fall in the face of unprecedented monetary expansion and contort themselves in various directions to explain it when the answer is simple. Aggregate demand collapsed. Period. Full stop.

rebecca-graph01.gif


The proper policy response in the face of inadequate demand is loose monetary policy, and yes, direct government spending. Building, or encouraging, more supply in an oversupplied market is counterproductive. Deregulation, marginal tax cuts, tight money ect. etc. do nothing to address the problem of inadequate demand, and in the case of tight money, actually make it much worse. Why are these things even being suggested in some quarters?

This isn’t rocket science and it doesn’t have to be partisan. It’s possible for Reagan’s policies to be correct for the problems he faced, but entirely inappropriate to those of today. It’s O.K. to recognize that. It happens to be the actual world we live in. But some people have drawn the wrong conclusions from Reagan's success. Some have gone so far as to adopt a world view that government action is everywhere and always evil, and therefore have come out against it, even in cases where it is necessary and beneficial. They seem especially hostile to those cases where it has been wildly successful, like TARP.
 
Entertaining, as always.

I'll just note that there is a huge gap between the opinions of political spin control specialists, political economists, and what they've convinced the public to believe, and what mathematical economists have concluded regarding the recent economic fluctuations, particularly now that more complete data on the 2007-2009 period is available.

There's a certain perverse amusement in seeing a triumph of ideology over empirical data. Alas, no amount of typing will convince most folks to change their mind.
 
and what mathematical economists have concluded regarding the recent economic fluctuations, particularly now that more complete data on the 2007-2009 period is available.

do tell!! :)
 
For anyone actually interested in digging through the econometric models and data, I suggest:

Data summaries and linkfests:
St. Louis Fed: Tracking the Global Economy
UCB Libraries | GovPubs | Stimulus

Dr. Ray Fair (Yale Dept. of Economics) has both a good model, and good survey articles on forecasting and targeting effects:
Recent Research

Dr. Fair's analysis of the 2008-2009 recession (a work in progress; this is the March 2009 version):
http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/rayfair/pdf/2009A.PDF

Hs past work seems to have produced reasonable results. [1] From a study of the previous recession and recovery:
http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cd/d14b/d1497.pdf
Section 5 consists of a number of counterfactual experiments using the MC model. The first three experiments provide estimates of the effects of the expansionary fiscal and monetary policies in the post boom period. The estimates are briefly as follows. Had there been no tax cuts, employment would have been 2.2 percent lower by 2004:3 than it actually was; had there been no large increases in federal purchases of goods, employment would have been 1.2 percent lower; and had there been no fall in short-term interest rates, employment would have been 2.5 percent lower. These effects are roughly additive in the model (fourth experiment), and the combined estimate is that employment would have been 5.6 percent lower in 2004:3 than it actually was.

Concluding with:
Treasury found that, without enactment of the Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001, the Job Creation and Worker Assistance Act of 2002, and the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003: (1) by the second quarter of 2003, the economy would have created as many as 1.5 million fewer jobs and GDP would have been as much as 2 percent lower, and (2) by the end of 2004, the economy would have created as many as 3 million fewer jobs and real GDP would be as much as 3.5 to 4.0 percent lower.

There are a number of other good articles coming out over the next several months, which should become freely available from researchers websites following publication.

1. Reasonable does not imply politically acceptable, but merely indicates that the results from the model for variation of a parameter correlate well with prior similar fluctuations seen in the actual economy.
 
Gone4Good....

A good analysis... and I do not disagree with what you said about the difference back then and today... and in truth I do not disagree that it is the demand that is the problem today...

But (isn't there always a but :whistle:)... it is difficult to encourage demand if so many people are not buying (now, I disagree that people are not buying, just not like before) if they feel that there is a possibility of lost income.... and them feeling 'poorer' due to the value of their house dropping...

The other point is maybe the new level of demand is 'correct' for right now... and trying to move it is a fools game...

My last comment (and remember, I do agree with most of what you say) is that the politicians want to have their cake and eat it.... remember that in good times they are supposed to run a surplus to pay down the debt they accumulated on their last spending spree... we have not done that at all.. probably will not anytime soon... at some point in time in the future, when the economy is humming along... the debt will start to become a burden and we will have to do some negative things in order to bring it under control.... I would rather not do some of the things right now that might not have much impact on the demand curve and live with a slower economy than have to pay a lot now and in the future...

Just in case someone wants to point out that maybe I have not felt the downturn... I lost my job, but found another at a lower salary... my sister and her husband both lost their job... I had another BIL get his hours reduced... so again, it affects my family... but I would rather the country be on sound footing in the future than what can my family or I get from the gvmt now...
 
The other point is maybe the new level of demand is 'correct' for right now... and trying to move it is a fools game...

My last comment (and remember, I do agree with most of what you say) is that the politicians want to have their cake and eat it.... remember that in good times they are supposed to run a surplus to pay down the debt they accumulated on their last spending spree... we have not done that at all.. probably will not anytime soon... at some point in time in the future, when the economy is humming along... the debt will start to become a burden and we will have to do some negative things in order to bring it under control....

So true..
 
-clipped to save bandwidth-.....This isn’t rocket science and it doesn’t have to be partisan. It’s possible for Reagan’s policies to be correct for the problems he faced, but entirely inappropriate to those of today. It’s O.K. to recognize that. It happens to be the actual world we live in. But some people have drawn the wrong conclusions from Reagan's success. Some have gone so far as to adopt a world view that government action is everywhere and always evil, and therefore have come out against it, even in cases where it is necessary and beneficial. They seem especially hostile to those cases where it has been wildly successful, like TARP.

Just chiming in here to say that these are my views as well 100% to the T.

I don't consider myself to be that smart and I'm certainly not a learned man in macro-economics but what you posted seems like common sense. I often wonder why more people aren't saying this? :confused:
 
The other point is maybe the new level of demand is 'correct' for right now... and trying to move it is a fools game...

For me to believe this, I'd have to believe that the demand of 14.8MM unemployed people isn't constrained by their unemployment.

And with respect to politicians (and the electorate) having their cake and eating it too, I completely agree. We shouldn't have squandered the nations balance sheet with guns and butter programs during the good times. But we did and that limits our ability to deal with the current economic situation.

Edit to Add: With respect to our fiscal constraints, there is a reasonable way through but it requires adult leadership. Regardless of today's large deficits (inflated by reduced tax revenue and higher 'safety-net' spending) our real structural budget problems are entirely about future entitlement growth, Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. It's certainly possible to tackle the entitlement problem today (reduced future benefit promises and higher future taxes) in a way that solidifies confidence in our fiscal health, without negatively impacting today's economy. That would free up some capacity to deal with the current slump.

Don't hold your breath.
 
For me to believe this, I'd have to believe that the demand of 14.8MM unemployed people isn't constrained by their unemployment.

And with respect to politicians (and the electorate) having their cake and eating it too, I completely agree. We shouldn't have squandered the nations balance sheet with guns and butter programs during the good times. But we did and that limits our ability to deal with the current economic situation.

Edit to Add: With respect to our fiscal constraints, there is a reasonable way through but it requires adult leadership. Regardless of today's large deficits (inflated by reduced tax revenue and higher 'safety-net' spending) our real structural budget problems are entirely about future entitlement growth, Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. It's certainly possible to tackle the entitlement problem today (reduced future benefit promises and higher future taxes) in a way that solidifies confidence in our fiscal health, without negatively impacting today's economy. That would free up some capacity to deal with the current slump.

Don't hold your breath.


Just a couple of comments...

I do agree about the unemployement demand, but until there is something to move them to employed status, the demand curve is not going to move.. and I might suggest that the cost of getting them employed by doing some monetary policies etc. etc. can be quite high... now, this is from memory and is based back when Japan was blowing and going... but I remember reading that the 2.1 million car import limit meant that it cost something in the neighborhood of $250,000 per job saved in the auto industry... (and I think employment has gone down since then... just a guess)... SOOO, we spent a lot of money to keep auto workers employed and in the end their jobs went away anyhow...


As to the changes to future benefits.... as the discussion on the public pension thread shows, there will be a big fight with a lot of people who think that the status quo can continue.. and nothing will be done (which you said)..


To me, one of the things that they could do is NOT extend the Bush tax cuts... come up with some other tax cuts that would stimulate employement.. but also make sure they are cost effective... not $250,000 per job..

I have not looked, but what was the cost of jobs 'saved' on the last stimulus package:confused:
 
As much as I hated the bankers and their CDOs, I think TARP did keep the economy from collapsing into chaos.

But, but, but those bankers got off way too easy. I would feel better if the TARP money was charged with loan shark interest rates, to really hurt them in their pocketbooks.

Oops, forgot that it will be their shareholders who will get hurt. The bankers themselves, nah, they will always have their bonus. It does make one want to believe in fairness in the afterlife, doesn't it?
 
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