Running_Man
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
- Joined
- Sep 25, 2006
- Messages
- 2,844
My anticipation is really unchanged from my analysis of September - October. At mid-October I thought the high was in at 10,119. While it was not the top in the market it really has done nothing but meander 3 months until last week. I remained convinced the state deficits and the transfer of wealth from the US government to the financial institutions of the United States cannot maintain itself. The largest states in the United States are about to sink into deflationary hell as receipts will continue to fall while their debts are far too high.
There is no money anywhere in the system of government of the United States and no great resources to obtain more other than from sources that will incur a downward spiral in the economy. The concern about inflation, which cannot gain hold despite a budget deficit for 2009 of 1.5 trillion (which when the budget was passed in 2008 was estimated to be 458 billion) is now being estimated to increase to 1.7 trillion. The fourth quarter budget deficit of 09 was the worst quarter ever and December is the worst budget deficit month of all time. Revenues have fallen for 20 straight months when compared to tax receipts for the same month in the previous year for the federal government. Economic activity is slowing, receipts are falling and the lack of money will very shortly become painfully obvious to most investors..
This belief I hold is a very dire position so I have not posted in the past few months, however with the market now having I believe begining its move towards the fundamentals and moving down, I'll am very interested in what occurs in the following 12 months. Having made 20% on my investments in 2009 the old fashioned way, I am now invested very heavily (10%) of my portfolio in long term puts, which I purchased at the start of last week.
The only solution I see myself right now and puts and T-bills and make money while prices fall. For myself I do not see this as a gloomy forecast, I see it as a forecast to purchase the financial assets I believe will perform the best in the coming year.
There is no money anywhere in the system of government of the United States and no great resources to obtain more other than from sources that will incur a downward spiral in the economy. The concern about inflation, which cannot gain hold despite a budget deficit for 2009 of 1.5 trillion (which when the budget was passed in 2008 was estimated to be 458 billion) is now being estimated to increase to 1.7 trillion. The fourth quarter budget deficit of 09 was the worst quarter ever and December is the worst budget deficit month of all time. Revenues have fallen for 20 straight months when compared to tax receipts for the same month in the previous year for the federal government. Economic activity is slowing, receipts are falling and the lack of money will very shortly become painfully obvious to most investors..
This belief I hold is a very dire position so I have not posted in the past few months, however with the market now having I believe begining its move towards the fundamentals and moving down, I'll am very interested in what occurs in the following 12 months. Having made 20% on my investments in 2009 the old fashioned way, I am now invested very heavily (10%) of my portfolio in long term puts, which I purchased at the start of last week.
The only solution I see myself right now and puts and T-bills and make money while prices fall. For myself I do not see this as a gloomy forecast, I see it as a forecast to purchase the financial assets I believe will perform the best in the coming year.